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Earl,
Awesome chart! By chance did you every see what the calc would be
for the post-bubble early thirties era? I think I may know where the
data can be found, will have to look.
Chris
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx> wrote:
> Here it is.
>
> A few comments/opinions are in order considering the near vertical
drop from
> well above the regression channel. While the ratio is working as
intended, I
> think that one needs to apply a bit of interpretation to the
components from
> which the ratio is derived. TBill rates have fallen from 6.21 to
3.35 (47%)
> and the decline appears to be decelerating. SP earnings have
dropped from
> 53.77 peak to 45.44 (15%) and the decline appears to be accelerating
> (something under $40 estimated for Q3). SP cash has dropped from
1520 to
> 1162 (24%). Further, the ratio has trended upward for some 60+
years since
> the beginning of my data in 1940 (beginning ratio of 0.0001) and
the highs
> sharply exceeded the upper bounds of the trend channel. I consider
it likely
> that the bottom of the channel will not contain the decline. Thus,
while the
> ratio appears to be reaching the value area, I believe one should
look for a
> sustained bottoming trend before becoming bullish. My personal view
is that
> the ratio will ultimately reach the 0.50 level (or lower) because
we are
> witnessing the end of a secular bull market.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Howard Hopkins" <hehohop@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, August 16, 2001 8:05 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Markets
>
>
> > Earl,
> >
> > Could you post a current T-bill/SP earnings chart?
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