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If I may play devils advocate, let me inject a thought with respect to market
observations and forecasting either bull or bear scenarios. I think all
timing tools work for periods and don't work for other periods, which is a
statement most experts banter about with out much of an explanation. So, for
protection, they often suggest that a multitude of tools be used whereby any
majority slanting in one direction or the other gets the nod as the
anticipated market direction. With several board members recently posting
their opinions based on a technique they may be using, let me inject some
caution. I think all tools may produce correct results based on an ideal set
of conditions that don't vary from test to test. However, in real life there
is always an infinite number of variables -- just ask any weather person how
difficult it is to predict the weather, and they have the best tools man has
devise. My assertion here is that conditions may not be the same from one
test to another. What I'm specifically getting at is that there were a great
number of earnings reports this prior week, which happened to be very
negative. Next week; however, there will be less emphasis on earnings reports
and more on whether Alan Greenspan will reduce rates. So, as much as I like
technical analysis, I clearly think there are some good reasons to still
incorporate some fundamental thinking into the equation, as well.
Successful trading,
Ralph
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