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Earl,
Have to support some serious concerns you have suggested over the weekend:
" When you look at some of these issues, the scary thing is that there
is more potential for disaster in the credit arena than there is in the
equities arena. The real problem in looking ahead is that our financial
system has never been stress tested under the tremendous loads of debt and
derivatives which currently exists."
Well, when it is stress tested and it fails, however briefly, it
will get the attention of the equities arena when they won't be able
to hold money market at $1 per share. Haven't we seen this before?
" My personal view is that
the ratio will ultimately reach the 0.50 level (or lower) because we are
witnessing the end of a secular bull market."
I agree with this also, but be careful, they shoot the messenger around here.
best.....
jerry
>We already know that 45 is possible and I suspect it could remain high over
>a sustained period and/or go considerably higher. I've been reading a lot of
>stuff recently on the GSE's (Freddie and Fannie) along with other credit
>issues. When you look at some of these issues, the scary thing is that there
>is more potential for disaster in the credit arena than there is in the
>equities arena. The real problem in looking ahead is that our financial
>system has never been stress tested under the tremendous loads of debt and
>derivatives which currently exists.
>
>Earl
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Sunday, August 19, 2001 7:33 AM
>Subject: Re: [RT] Markets
>
>
>> Since the advent of circuit breakers hasn't VIX been somewhat limited on
>the
>> high end? Like in 1987 didn't it hit 150 without circuit breakers. What
>do
>> you think is the highest level it could reach with circuit breakers? 50?
>75?
>> 80?
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Sent: Sunday, August 19, 2001 6:12 AM
>> Subject: Re: [RT] Markets
>>
>>
>> > I've seen some recent work on volatility in which the authors suggest
>that
>> > the current extreme low period of volatility will be followed by a
>period
>> of
>> > extreme high volatility. I've also seen some scary looking stuff which
>> fits
>> > with your long red bar.
>> >
>> > Earl
>> >
>> >
>> > ----- Original Message -----
>> > From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
>> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > Sent: Saturday, August 18, 2001 8:04 PM
>> > Subject: [SM] Re: [RT] Markets
>> >
>> >
>> > Well, I'll just take the position of REPORTING HISTORY.
>> >
>> > The attached shows the SwingTimer evaluation of the WEEKLY
>> > S&P cash index from 1931 until now.
>> >
>> > Very interesting that there are only TWO (2) prior conditions
>> > where market patterns have been the same as now.
>> >
>> > The projected (red) box shows the high and low price limits
>> > based on these two prior patterns and also show the earliest
>> > and latest time frames.
>> >
>> > The earlier boxes shown are from a MATCH 3 situation which
>> > is a bit more reliable but show that prior conditions were not
>> > as unique as just now.
>> >
>> > Hopefully you will watch this closely.
>> >
>> > Clyde
>> >
>> >
>> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>> > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
>> > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
>> > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
>> > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
>> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>> >
>> > ----- Original Message -----
>> > From: "Ralph Volpe" <rjv@xxxxxxxxxx>
>> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > Sent: Saturday, August 18, 2001 19:36
>> > Subject: Re: [RT] Markets
>> >
>> >
>> > > If I may play devils advocate, let me inject a thought with respect to
>> > market
>> > > observations and forecasting either bull or bear scenarios. I think
>all
>> > > timing tools work for periods and don't work for other periods, which
>is
>> a
>> > > statement most experts banter about with out much of an explanation.
>So,
>> > for
>> > > protection, they often suggest that a multitude of tools be used
>whereby
>> > any
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>> >
>> >
>>
>>
>> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>>
>>
>>
>> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
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