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Chris,
It takes all 3 series to get the ratio going. My SP500 weekly starts Jan28,
earnings Jan36, and 13 week TBill Jan41 so its the TBill data which prevents
going back to 36. It would be most interesting to see the ratio in 28-29
where it should have peaked. However, TBill rates were under 0.10% (yes 1/10
of 1 percent) for nearly all of 1941 (first year of my data) so the ratio
would have been near zero and I suspect that near-zero ratio would have held
for much of the 30's since the public was paying the Treasury to hold its
money for a good part of the 30's.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: <chrischeatham@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, August 18, 2001 9:33 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Markets
> Earl,
>
> Awesome chart! By chance did you every see what the calc would be
> for the post-bubble early thirties era? I think I may know where the
> data can be found, will have to look.
>
> Chris
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx> wrote:
> > Here it is.
> >
> > A few comments/opinions are in order considering the near vertical
> drop from
> > well above the regression channel. While the ratio is working as
> intended, I
> > think that one needs to apply a bit of interpretation to the
> components from
> > which the ratio is derived. TBill rates have fallen from 6.21 to
> 3.35 (47%)
> > and the decline appears to be decelerating. SP earnings have
> dropped from
> > 53.77 peak to 45.44 (15%) and the decline appears to be accelerating
> > (something under $40 estimated for Q3). SP cash has dropped from
> 1520 to
> > 1162 (24%). Further, the ratio has trended upward for some 60+
> years since
> > the beginning of my data in 1940 (beginning ratio of 0.0001) and
> the highs
> > sharply exceeded the upper bounds of the trend channel. I consider
> it likely
> > that the bottom of the channel will not contain the decline. Thus,
> while the
> > ratio appears to be reaching the value area, I believe one should
> look for a
> > sustained bottoming trend before becoming bullish. My personal view
> is that
> > the ratio will ultimately reach the 0.50 level (or lower) because
> we are
> > witnessing the end of a secular bull market.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Howard Hopkins" <hehohop@xxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, August 16, 2001 8:05 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Markets
> >
> >
> > > Earl,
> > >
> > > Could you post a current T-bill/SP earnings chart?
>
>
>
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