|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I have concluded that the 3 and 5 Elliott rules just don't hold true.
A wave 1 can be a 3, a wave 5 can be a 3. These happen over and over
and over again. As to zig zag c waves, how can you determine by
elliott rules if you are not really dealing with abc-x-abc instead of
an abc? This gets you to the same place with a zig zag termination of
a correction.
The other thing I have concluded is that Andrews, Babson, etc.
geometry trumps elliott counts most of the time.
My two cents,
Chris
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxx> wrote:
> Frost's work may be the bible, but its certainly not something you
would
> use to make market analysis off. That's like leaving school after
6th
> grade and expecting to be a university professor. Clearly
ridiculous.
> There is only one work I regard as the bible, and that speaking from
> almost 15 years of real time use. I'm speaking of Neely's book
> "Mastering Elliott Wave Theory". I warn readers though it is only
for
> the very serious Elliott student, and actually not something I would
> recommend generally.
> As for C's being zig-zags, that's only true if the C wave was part
of a
> "B' or "X' wave triangle, or part of a Terminating Triangle. There
are
> NO 3 wave C's in a non-terminating impulse pattern...end of story.
To
> suggest zig-zag C waves are common is absurd. How would anyone
gain any
> benefit from EWT is they never knew whether the C wave was going to
be a
> 3 or 5 wave affair???? Clearly the theory would be useless.
> Thankfully, readers, you can be rest assured Frost and Elliott were
> generally right. ALL (except for those highlighted above) 'C'
waves in
> 'abc' are 5 wave affairs.
>
> Regards,
>
> Adrian Pitt
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Joe Duffy [mailto:joeduffy@x...]
> Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
>
>
> When Jack Frost wrote analysis part what is now kind of the bible of
> Elliot (Prechter wrote the postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did
that
> all c's are 5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand for about 8
years
> (a while ago) I can say in my experience all C's are not 5's, and a
> zig-zag C is common.
>
> ---- Original Message -----
> From: Don <mailto:dbewers@x...> Ewers
> To: realtraders@xxxx
> Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
>
> Lee,
> Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave c:B advance should not
be a
> zig-zag but a five wave decline FWIW.
> don ewers
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Lee <mailto:LMorris@x...> Morris
> To: realtraders@xxxx
> Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45 PM
> Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
>
> I think you are right on with both the short and long. The only
> difference I have is that on the long range forecast I favor the
> possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since
jan as
> wave B (which is close to ending) and the next major rally wave C
of B
> then the final down move to at or below sept would be wave C of a
zig
> zag. Practically it does not change how I would trade regardless of
if
> you are right and this is a baby bull or the second option that
this is
> a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the upcoming rally should
be
> very powerful. The only issue I have is with the VIX and P/C ratio,
at
> the current levels I do not think that we have the fuel for this
kind of
> rally so I would like to see the final move to your target of 1030
be
> fast and furious to scare some people.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@x...]
> Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 6:55 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxx
> Subject: [RT] SPX index forecast
>
>
> I am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a
> contribution. I know that some of you are professionals and I
welcome
> your comments and insights to my analysis.
>
> It appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you
were
> anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then
again
> touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe
there
> is a reasonable possibility that the market could move back up near
the
> turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the move
down. I
> believe there is an even smaller chance that the market may even
> slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn as late as 5-28.
>
> My short term forecast:
>
> I am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-
4. My
> target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to
> 5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of
1106.59
> and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of
the
> move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this
> projected down move does terminate in the projected target range,
it has
> the potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire
move
> from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a significant and
> sustainable move up.
> My longer term forecast:
> Normally my technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but
when I
> saw that we might be about to complete the correction of the move
from
> 9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a little longer term
perspective.
> On the attached and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I
have
> drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move down from the
March
> 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of
2001. I
> have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward
reaction
> to the initial down move from the March 2000 high and connected it
to
> the high made in May of 2001.
> As you can see these trend lines clearly define the trading channel
of
> the bear market. Looking at this chart the first indication we have
that
> the bear market is over, is the penetration of the top trend line
and
> the fact that the market has traded outside the bear market channel
for
> most of this year.
> My current time frame for the next low turning point is within four
days
> of 6-4. This time frame will be reached on this chart in the next
one to
> two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the
next
> low turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of
the
> next one to two bars my projected price range is met it will fall
just
> above the upper trend line at 1025.
> From an Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be
> interpreted as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C
zig
> zag correction as labeled on the chart. With the "C" wave
terminating at
> my projected low turning point, completing wave two, and setting the
> stage for the usually dynamic impulse wave three to begin.
> In conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis
is the
> early stages of a new Bull market, and an excellent buying
opportunity
> dead ahead.
> E
> DGLChart
>
>
>
> ******************************************************************
> This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso
> Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the
> use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
> If you have received this email in error please notify the
> sender.
> ******************************************************************
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
> <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> Service.
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service
> <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> .
>
>
>
> ---
> Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> Version: 6.0.362 / Virus Database: 199 - Release Date: 5/7/02
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service
> <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> .
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Buy Stock for $4
and no minimums.
FREE Money 2002.
http://us.click.yahoo.com/orkH0C/n97DAA/Ey.GAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|