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RE: [RT] SPX index forecast



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I have Neely's 
book...and I can attest to it's completeness....and complexity. The number of 
rules explained in that bible are staggering.
if AGET or any 
other EWT software implements these rules in exacting detail, I would be really 
impressed.
<FONT color=#0000ff 
size=2> 
One key issue re: 
"As for C's being 
zig-zags, that's only true if the C wave was part of a "B' or "X' wave triangle, 
or part of a Terminating Triangle. "
<SPAN 
class=961474604-26052002>For the S&P or Dow Jones average - hourly chart, 
what percentage of C waves fall into the classification above ? 

<SPAN 
class=961474604-26052002>10%, 30%, 50% ?
<SPAN 
class=961474604-26052002> 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid">
  <FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Adrian Pitt 
  [mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Sunday, May 26, 2002 12:55 
  AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: [RT] SPX 
  index forecast
  Frost's work 
  may be the bible, but its certainly not something you would use to make market 
  analysis off.  That's like leaving school after 6th grade and expecting 
  to be a university professor. Clearly ridiculous.  There is only one work 
  I regard as the bible, and that speaking from almost 15 years of real time 
  use.  I'm speaking of Neely's book "Mastering Elliott Wave Theory".  
  I warn readers though it is only for the very serious Elliott student, and 
  actually not something I would recommend generally.  
  As for C's 
  being zig-zags, that's only true if the C wave was part of a "B' or "X' wave 
  triangle, or part of a Terminating Triangle.  There are NO 3 wave C's in 
  a non-terminating impulse pattern...end of story.  To suggest zig-zag C 
  waves are common is absurd.  How would anyone gain any benefit from EWT 
  is they never knew whether the C wave was going to be a 3 or 5 wave 
  affair????  Clearly the theory would be useless.  Thankfully, 
  readers, you can be rest assured Frost and Elliott were generally right.  
  ALL (except for those highlighted above) 'C' waves in 'abc'  are 5 wave 
  affairs.
  <FONT color=#0000ff 
  size=2> 
  <FONT color=#0000ff 
  size=2>Regards,
  <FONT color=#0000ff 
  size=2> 
  Adrian 
  Pitt
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    
    <FONT 
    face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Joe Duffy 
    [mailto:joeduffy@xxxxxxxxx] Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49 
    AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] SPX 
    index forecast
    When Jack Frost wrote analysis part what is now kind of the bible of 
    Elliot (Prechter wrote the postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did that all 
    c's are 5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand for about 8 years (a 
    while ago) I can say in my experience all C's are not 5's, and a zig-zag C 
    is common. 
     
    ---- Original Message ----- 
    <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
    style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV 
      style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
      Don 
      Ewers 
      To: <A 
      title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      
      Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22 
      PM
      Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index 
      forecast
      
      Lee, 
      Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave 
      c:B advance should not be a zig-zag but a five wave decline 
      FWIW.
      don ewers
      <BLOCKQUOTE 
      style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
        ----- Original Message ----- 
        <DIV 
        style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
        Lee 
        Morris 
        To: <A 
        title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
        href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
        
        Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45 
        PM
        Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index 
        forecast
        
        <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
        size=2>I think you are right on with both the short and long. The only 
        difference I have is that on the long range forecast I favor the 
        possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since jan as 
        wave B (which is close to ending) and the next major rally wave C of B 
        then the final down move to at or below sept would be wave C of a zig 
        zag. Practically it does not change how I would trade regardless of if 
        you are right and this is a baby bull or the second option that this is 
        a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the upcoming rally should be 
        very powerful. The only issue I have is with the VIX and P/C ratio, at 
        the current levels I do not think that we have the fuel for this kind of 
        rally so I would like to see the final move to your target of 1030 be 
        fast and furious to scare some people.
        
          <FONT face=Tahoma 
          size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Hill, Ernie 
          [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 
          6:55 PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: 
          [RT] SPX index forecast
          
          <FONT face=Arial 
          color=black size=2><SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I 
          am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a 
          contribution. I know that some of you are professionals and I welcome 
          your comments and insights to my 
          analysis.
          <FONT face=Arial 
          color=black size=2><SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
          <FONT face=Arial 
          color=black size=2><SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">It 
          appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you were 
          anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then 
          again touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe 
          there is a reasonable possibility that the market could move back up 
          near the turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the 
          move down. I believe there is an even smaller chance that the market 
          may even slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn as late 
          as 5-28.
          <FONT face=Arial 
          color=black size=2><SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
          <FONT face=Arial 
          color=black size=3><SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My 
          short term forecast<FONT 
          face=Arial color=black size=2><SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">:
          <FONT face=Arial 
          color=black size=2><SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
          <FONT face=Arial 
          color=black size=2><SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I 
          am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-4. My 
          target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 
          5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 
          and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the 
          move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this 
          projected down move does terminate in the projected target range, it 
          has the potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire 
          move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a 
          significant and sustainable move up<SPAN 
          style="COLOR: blue">.<SPAN 
          class=EmailStyle19><SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
          <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My longer 
          term forecast:<SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
          <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Normally my 
          technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that 
          we might be about to complete the correction of the move from 9-21 to 
          1-9, I thought I would take a little longer term 
          perspective.
          <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">On the 
          attached and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I have 
          drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move down from the 
          March 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of 
          2001. I have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward 
          reaction to the initial down move from the March 2000 high and 
          connected it to the high made in May of 
          2001.
          <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">As you can 
          see these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the bear 
          market. Looking at this chart the first indication we have that the 
          bear market is over, is the penetration of the top trend line and the 
          fact that the market has traded outside the bear market channel for 
          most of this year.
          <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My current 
          time frame for the next low turning point is within four days of 
          6-4. <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">This time 
          frame will be reached on this chart in <FONT face=Arial 
          size=2>the next one 
          to two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the 
          next low turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame 
          of the next one to two bars my projected price range <SPAN 
          class=GramE>is met it will fall just above the upper trend line 
          at 1025. 
          <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">From an 
          Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be interpreted 
          as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag 
          correction as <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">labeled on 
          the chart. <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">With 
          the <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">"C" wave 
          terminating at my projected <FONT face=Arial color=black 
          size=2><SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">low 
          <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">turning 
          point, completing wave two, and setting the stage for the usually 
          dynamic impulse wave three to begin.
          <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In 
          conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my 
          analysis <FONT face=Arial color=black 
          size=2><SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">is the early 
          stages<SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> of a 
          new B<SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">ull market, 
          and an excellent buying opportunity dead 
          ahead.
          <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">E
          <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><IMG id=_x0000_i1025 height=600 alt=DGLChart 
          width=800>
          <SPAN 
          style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT 
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