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Chris,
I am not sure I agree. I have seen your manual counts at times and compared
them to ones I have running on a similar chart and they are not the same.
Although not pure Elliott I think AGET's use of primarily the 5/35
oscillator to find the wave 3 (as well as the 10/70 to measure extreme
extensions and the 5/17 to measure internal counts) lays out a whole
differnet picture than you may be seeing? From my use of over 7 years I
could not do counts correctly without these, including ABC's looking for
divergence. When to that you add the wave 4 channel's and we are not taking
the same things (warns of expanded count change). Just my two cents, but
maybe consider adding them and you may find you are counting a very
different count :-)
Stand on my statement, if doing "correct counts" wave C's have 5 waves.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "chrischeatham" <nchrisc@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, May 26, 2002 10:17 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
> I have concluded that the 3 and 5 Elliott rules just don't hold true.
> A wave 1 can be a 3, a wave 5 can be a 3. These happen over and over
> and over again. As to zig zag c waves, how can you determine by
> elliott rules if you are not really dealing with abc-x-abc instead of
> an abc? This gets you to the same place with a zig zag termination of
> a correction.
>
> The other thing I have concluded is that Andrews, Babson, etc.
> geometry trumps elliott counts most of the time.
>
> My two cents,
> Chris
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxx> wrote:
> > Frost's work may be the bible, but its certainly not something you
> would
> > use to make market analysis off. That's like leaving school after
> 6th
> > grade and expecting to be a university professor. Clearly
> ridiculous.
> > There is only one work I regard as the bible, and that speaking from
> > almost 15 years of real time use. I'm speaking of Neely's book
> > "Mastering Elliott Wave Theory". I warn readers though it is only
> for
> > the very serious Elliott student, and actually not something I would
> > recommend generally.
> > As for C's being zig-zags, that's only true if the C wave was part
> of a
> > "B' or "X' wave triangle, or part of a Terminating Triangle. There
> are
> > NO 3 wave C's in a non-terminating impulse pattern...end of story.
> To
> > suggest zig-zag C waves are common is absurd. How would anyone
> gain any
> > benefit from EWT is they never knew whether the C wave was going to
> be a
> > 3 or 5 wave affair???? Clearly the theory would be useless.
> > Thankfully, readers, you can be rest assured Frost and Elliott were
> > generally right. ALL (except for those highlighted above) 'C'
> waves in
> > 'abc' are 5 wave affairs.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Adrian Pitt
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Joe Duffy [mailto:joeduffy@x...]
> > Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> >
> > When Jack Frost wrote analysis part what is now kind of the bible of
> > Elliot (Prechter wrote the postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did
> that
> > all c's are 5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand for about 8
> years
> > (a while ago) I can say in my experience all C's are not 5's, and a
> > zig-zag C is common.
> >
> > ---- Original Message -----
> > From: Don <mailto:dbewers@x...> Ewers
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> > Lee,
> > Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave c:B advance should not
> be a
> > zig-zag but a five wave decline FWIW.
> > don ewers
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Lee <mailto:LMorris@x...> Morris
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45 PM
> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> > I think you are right on with both the short and long. The only
> > difference I have is that on the long range forecast I favor the
> > possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since
> jan as
> > wave B (which is close to ending) and the next major rally wave C
> of B
> > then the final down move to at or below sept would be wave C of a
> zig
> > zag. Practically it does not change how I would trade regardless of
> if
> > you are right and this is a baby bull or the second option that
> this is
> > a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the upcoming rally should
> be
> > very powerful. The only issue I have is with the VIX and P/C ratio,
> at
> > the current levels I do not think that we have the fuel for this
> kind of
> > rally so I would like to see the final move to your target of 1030
> be
> > fast and furious to scare some people.
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@x...]
> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 6:55 PM
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Subject: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> >
> > I am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a
> > contribution. I know that some of you are professionals and I
> welcome
> > your comments and insights to my analysis.
> >
> > It appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you
> were
> > anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then
> again
> > touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe
> there
> > is a reasonable possibility that the market could move back up near
> the
> > turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the move
> down. I
> > believe there is an even smaller chance that the market may even
> > slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn as late as 5-28.
> >
> > My short term forecast:
> >
> > I am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-
> 4. My
> > target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to
> > 5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of
> 1106.59
> > and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of
> the
> > move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this
> > projected down move does terminate in the projected target range,
> it has
> > the potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire
> move
> > from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a significant and
> > sustainable move up.
> > My longer term forecast:
> > Normally my technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but
> when I
> > saw that we might be about to complete the correction of the move
> from
> > 9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a little longer term
> perspective.
> > On the attached and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I
> have
> > drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move down from the
> March
> > 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of
> 2001. I
> > have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward
> reaction
> > to the initial down move from the March 2000 high and connected it
> to
> > the high made in May of 2001.
> > As you can see these trend lines clearly define the trading channel
> of
> > the bear market. Looking at this chart the first indication we have
> that
> > the bear market is over, is the penetration of the top trend line
> and
> > the fact that the market has traded outside the bear market channel
> for
> > most of this year.
> > My current time frame for the next low turning point is within four
> days
> > of 6-4. This time frame will be reached on this chart in the next
> one to
> > two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the
> next
> > low turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of
> the
> > next one to two bars my projected price range is met it will fall
> just
> > above the upper trend line at 1025.
> > From an Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be
> > interpreted as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C
> zig
> > zag correction as labeled on the chart. With the "C" wave
> terminating at
> > my projected low turning point, completing wave two, and setting the
> > stage for the usually dynamic impulse wave three to begin.
> > In conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis
> is the
> > early stages of a new Bull market, and an excellent buying
> opportunity
> > dead ahead.
> > E
> > DGLChart
> >
> >
> >
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