|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Chris,
What you are seeing is the same thing almost all Ellioticians see
without exception. They all make the same flaw. They all LOOK for 5
wave patterns instead of letting the market TELL them what the
structures are. Genuine 5 wave structures are almost always 5-3-5-3-5
affairs. The major oversight people make is that they hardly ever occur
for real. Most of the time the markets are forming complex 'abc'
corrective structures with intervening X waves. I see this in real time
religiously and the forecasts made from these structures are incredibly
reliable. If people would simply do what real technicians are supposed
to do and let the market guide them then they would suddenly be
astounded how few 5 wave structures there truly are.
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: chrischeatham [mailto:nchrisc@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Monday, 27 May 2002 1:17 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
>
>
> I have concluded that the 3 and 5 Elliott rules just don't hold true.
> A wave 1 can be a 3, a wave 5 can be a 3. These happen over and over
> and over again. As to zig zag c waves, how can you determine by
> elliott rules if you are not really dealing with abc-x-abc instead of
> an abc? This gets you to the same place with a zig zag termination of
> a correction.
>
> The other thing I have concluded is that Andrews, Babson, etc.
> geometry trumps elliott counts most of the time.
>
> My two cents,
> Chris
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxx> wrote:
> > Frost's work may be the bible, but its certainly not something you
> would
> > use to make market analysis off. That's like leaving school after
> 6th
> > grade and expecting to be a university professor. Clearly
> ridiculous.
> > There is only one work I regard as the bible, and that
> speaking from
> > almost 15 years of real time use. I'm speaking of Neely's book
> > "Mastering Elliott Wave Theory". I warn readers though it is only
> for
> > the very serious Elliott student, and actually not
> something I would
> > recommend generally.
> > As for C's being zig-zags, that's only true if the C wave was part
> of a
> > "B' or "X' wave triangle, or part of a Terminating Triangle. There
> are
> > NO 3 wave C's in a non-terminating impulse pattern...end of story.
> To
> > suggest zig-zag C waves are common is absurd. How would anyone
> gain any
> > benefit from EWT is they never knew whether the C wave was going to
> be a
> > 3 or 5 wave affair???? Clearly the theory would be useless.
> > Thankfully, readers, you can be rest assured Frost and Elliott were
> > generally right. ALL (except for those highlighted above) 'C'
> waves in
> > 'abc' are 5 wave affairs.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Adrian Pitt
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Joe Duffy [mailto:joeduffy@x...]
> > Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> >
> > When Jack Frost wrote analysis part what is now kind of the
> bible of
> > Elliot (Prechter wrote the postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did
> that
> > all c's are 5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand for about 8
> years
> > (a while ago) I can say in my experience all C's are not 5's, and a
> > zig-zag C is common.
> >
> > ---- Original Message -----
> > From: Don <mailto:dbewers@x...> Ewers
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> > Lee,
> > Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave c:B advance should not
> be a
> > zig-zag but a five wave decline FWIW.
> > don ewers
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Lee <mailto:LMorris@x...> Morris
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45 PM
> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> > I think you are right on with both the short and long. The only
> > difference I have is that on the long range forecast I favor the
> > possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since
> jan as
> > wave B (which is close to ending) and the next major rally wave C
> of B
> > then the final down move to at or below sept would be wave C of a
> zig
> > zag. Practically it does not change how I would trade regardless of
> if
> > you are right and this is a baby bull or the second option that
> this is
> > a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the upcoming rally should
> be
> > very powerful. The only issue I have is with the VIX and P/C ratio,
> at
> > the current levels I do not think that we have the fuel for this
> kind of
> > rally so I would like to see the final move to your target of 1030
> be
> > fast and furious to scare some people.
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@x...]
> > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 6:55 PM
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Subject: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> >
> > I am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a
> > contribution. I know that some of you are professionals and I
> welcome
> > your comments and insights to my analysis.
> >
> > It appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you
> were
> > anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then
> again
> > touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe
> there
> > is a reasonable possibility that the market could move back up near
> the
> > turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the move
> down. I
> > believe there is an even smaller chance that the market may even
> > slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn as late as 5-28.
> >
> > My short term forecast:
> >
> > I am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-
> 4. My
> > target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move
> from 5-7 to
> > 5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of
> 1106.59
> > and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of
> the
> > move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this
> > projected down move does terminate in the projected target range,
> it has
> > the potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire
> move
> > from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a significant and
> > sustainable move up. My longer term forecast:
> > Normally my technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but
> when I
> > saw that we might be about to complete the correction of the move
> from
> > 9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a little longer term
> perspective.
> > On the attached and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I
> have
> > drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move down from the
> March
> > 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of
> 2001. I
> > have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward
> reaction
> > to the initial down move from the March 2000 high and connected it
> to
> > the high made in May of 2001.
> > As you can see these trend lines clearly define the trading channel
> of
> > the bear market. Looking at this chart the first indication we have
> that
> > the bear market is over, is the penetration of the top trend line
> and
> > the fact that the market has traded outside the bear market channel
> for
> > most of this year.
> > My current time frame for the next low turning point is within four
> days
> > of 6-4. This time frame will be reached on this chart in the next
> one to
> > two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the
> next
> > low turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of
> the
> > next one to two bars my projected price range is met it will fall
> just
> > above the upper trend line at 1025.
> > From an Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be
> > interpreted as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C
> zig
> > zag correction as labeled on the chart. With the "C" wave
> terminating at
> > my projected low turning point, completing wave two, and
> setting the
> > stage for the usually dynamic impulse wave three to begin. In
> > conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis
> is the
> > early stages of a new Bull market, and an excellent buying
> opportunity
> > dead ahead.
> > E
> > DGLChart
> >
> >
> >
> > ******************************************************************
> > This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso
> > Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the
> > use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
> > If you have received this email in error please notify the
> > sender.
> > ******************************************************************
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
> > <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> Service.
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service
> > <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> .
> >
> >
> >
> > ---
> > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > Version: 6.0.362 / Virus Database: 199 - Release Date: 5/7/02
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service
> > <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> .
>
>
> ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
> ---------------------~--> Buy Stock for $4 and no minimums.
> FREE Money 2002.
> http://us.click.yahoo.com/orkH0C/n97DAA/Ey.GAA> /zMEolB/TM
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------
> -------~->
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Buy Stock for $4
and no minimums.
FREE Money 2002.
http://us.click.yahoo.com/orkH0C/n97DAA/Ey.GAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|