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[RT] Techno-Fundamental Analysis



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Perhaps the most basic tool of Fundamental analysis is PE ratio. 
Numerous attempts at correlating this have been made and often the 
Technical Analysis defies fundamental logic.Dividend yield currently 
at 1.5% also is historically low. But they both can work in tandem 
with long term Technical Analysis.

Base upon different sources one will find the current S&P 500 P/E 
ratio estimated at 45 to 60. This is high by any standard. At the 
bubble peak the P/E was estimated at 25. and the Nasdaq 100 had 
earnings reported at $12 per share for a PE of 300 plus.

Bronson Capital Research has presented the most meaningful 
presentation of " Will the Real P/E Stand Up" published in April 2002.
He shows that the last Supercycle Bear Markets of 1932 and 1974 that 
the P/E did not hit its low until 1949 and 1982 respectively. He thus 
postulates that the P/E low may not occur until 2008 + or - 24 months.

Some sources expect the 2002 P/E to be around 30. That may be wishful 
thinking.

Attached is a gif which I hope tails this message and opens properly. 
If not I will direct you to the site.

None of this means that there will not be short term opportunities. 
The game may have changed dramatically with Institutions and 
Retirement plans having lost sight of options other than equities.

Would Benjamin Graham  likely be on the sidelines?

Or would he accept the matter atface value and hunt down the best 
values?

John







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end




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