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RE: [RT] SPX index forecast



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Frost's work may 
be the bible, but its certainly not something you would use to make market 
analysis off.  That's like leaving school after 6th grade and expecting to 
be a university professor. Clearly ridiculous.  There is only one work I 
regard as the bible, and that speaking from almost 15 years of real time 
use.  I'm speaking of Neely's book "Mastering Elliott Wave Theory".  I 
warn readers though it is only for the very serious Elliott student, and 
actually not something I would recommend generally.  
As for C's being 
zig-zags, that's only true if the C wave was part of a "B' or "X' wave triangle, 
or part of a Terminating Triangle.  There are NO 3 wave C's in a 
non-terminating impulse pattern...end of story.  To suggest zig-zag C waves 
are common is absurd.  How would anyone gain any benefit from EWT is they 
never knew whether the C wave was going to be a 3 or 5 wave affair????  
Clearly the theory would be useless.  Thankfully, readers, you can be rest 
assured Frost and Elliott were generally right.  ALL (except for those 
highlighted above) 'C' waves in 'abc'  are 5 wave 
affairs.
<FONT color=#0000ff 
size=2> 
<FONT color=#0000ff 
size=2>Regards,
<FONT color=#0000ff 
size=2> 
Adrian 
Pitt
<BLOCKQUOTE 
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  <FONT 
  face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Joe Duffy 
  [mailto:joeduffy@xxxxxxxxx] Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49 
  AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] SPX 
  index forecast
  When Jack Frost wrote analysis part what is now kind of the bible of 
  Elliot (Prechter wrote the postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did that all 
  c's are 5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand for about 8 years (a while 
  ago) I can say in my experience all C's are not 5's, and a zig-zag C is 
  common. 
   
  ---- Original Message ----- 
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
    Don 
    Ewers 
    To: <A 
    title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    
    Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22 
    PM
    Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index 
    forecast
    
    Lee, 
    Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave c:B 
    advance should not be a zig-zag but a five wave decline FWIW.
    don ewers
    <BLOCKQUOTE 
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      ----- Original Message ----- 
      <DIV 
      style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
      Lee 
      Morris 
      To: <A 
      title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      
      Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45 
      PM
      Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index 
      forecast
      
      <FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
      size=2>I think you are right on with both the short and long. The only 
      difference I have is that on the long range forecast I favor the 
      possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since jan as 
      wave B (which is close to ending) and the next major rally wave C of B 
      then the final down move to at or below sept would be wave C of a zig zag. 
      Practically it does not change how I would trade regardless of if you are 
      right and this is a baby bull or the second option that this is a bear mkt 
      rally. Either way the at a min the upcoming rally should be very powerful. 
      The only issue I have is with the VIX and P/C ratio, at the current levels 
      I do not think that we have the fuel for this kind of rally so I would 
      like to see the final move to your target of 1030 be fast and furious to 
      scare some people.
      
        <FONT face=Tahoma 
        size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Hill, Ernie 
        [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 
        6:55 PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: 
        [RT] SPX index forecast
        
        <FONT face=Arial color=black 
        size=2><SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I 
        am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a 
        contribution. I know that some of you are professionals and I welcome 
        your comments and insights to my 
        analysis.
        <FONT face=Arial color=black 
        size=2><SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
        <FONT face=Arial color=black 
        size=2><SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">It 
        appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you were 
        anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then again 
        touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe there 
        is a reasonable possibility that the market could move back up near the 
        turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the move down. I 
        believe there is an even smaller chance that the market may even 
        slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn as late as 
        5-28.
        <FONT face=Arial color=black 
        size=2><SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
        <FONT face=Arial color=black 
        size=3><SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My 
        short term forecast<FONT 
        face=Arial color=black size=2><SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">:
        <FONT face=Arial color=black 
        size=2><SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> 
        <FONT face=Arial color=black 
        size=2><SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I 
        am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-4. My 
        target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 
        5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 
        and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the 
        move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this 
        projected down move does terminate in the projected target range, it has 
        the potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire move 
        from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a 
        significant and sustainable move up<SPAN 
        style="COLOR: blue">.<SPAN 
        class=EmailStyle19><SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
        <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My longer term 
        forecast:<SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
        <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Normally my 
        technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that we 
        might be about to complete the correction of the move from 9-21 to 1-9, 
        I thought I would take a little longer term 
        perspective.
        <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">On the 
        attached and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I have drawn 
        a trend line from the bottom of the first move down from the March 2000 
        high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of 2001. I have 
        also drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward reaction to the 
        initial down move from the March 2000 high and connected it to the high 
        made in May of 2001.
        <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">As you can see 
        these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the bear market. 
        Looking at this chart the first indication we have that the bear market 
        is over, is the penetration of the top trend line and the fact that the 
        market has traded outside the bear market channel for most of this 
        year.
        <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My current 
        time frame for the next low turning point is within four days of 
        6-4. <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">This time 
        frame will be reached on this chart in <FONT face=Arial 
        size=2>the next one to 
        two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next 
        low turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of the 
        next one to two bars my projected price range <SPAN 
        class=GramE>is met it will fall just above the upper trend line 
        at 1025. 
        <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">From an 
        Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be interpreted 
        as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag 
        correction as <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">labeled on the 
        chart. <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">With 
        the <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">"C" wave 
        terminating at my projected <FONT face=Arial color=black 
        size=2><SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">low 
        <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">turning point, 
        completing wave two, and setting the stage for the usually dynamic 
        impulse wave three to begin.
        <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In conclusion 
        what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis <SPAN 
        class=GramE><SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">is the early 
        stages<SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> of a 
        new B<SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">ull market, 
        and an excellent buying opportunity dead 
        ahead.
        <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">E
        <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><IMG id=_x0000_i1025 height=600 alt=DGLChart 
width=800>
        <SPAN 
        style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT 
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