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adrian:
no need to get excited. :-)
my comments are just a caveat from an observer. it's not a neely-bash; i
think the guy has a something to offer. even if it is only the caveat that
impulse waves are rare, it helps one balance ewave dynamics.
regards,
dw/h1
On Mon, 27 May 2002, Adrian Pitt wrote:
> Daniel,
>
> 1. Its not a system..and has never been advertised as such. It about
> being able to use the EWT to better interpret the market.
>
> 2. Can you explain how a trade that loses money can be anything but
> 100% wrong???
>
> 3. Can you provide the detailed statistics on Win% and Avg/Avg Loss
> that you say your aware of with Neelys work please. I'm sure
> your intelligent enough not to make decisions on things that you
> hear third hand in a non scientific manner.
>
> Adrian
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Daniel Watkins [mailto:watnetd@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Monday, 27 May 2002 7:47 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
> >
> >
> >
> > i have seen/heard neely make some excellent and well
> > publicized "calls". but, i have also heard several close
> > neely-watchers recite a string of predictions which were 100
> > % wrong. now, no system is perfect or close to it, but a
> > system which is so complex and complete and interpreted by
> > its inventor/discoveror should have a much better record than
> > what i have seen/heard related.
> >
> > in short, or long, i don't see that his system is any better
> > than any others and it seems to promise more. like all these
> > systems and proprietary indicators they seemd to quickly
> > become self-absorbed and lose touch with the market, herself.
> >
> >
> > h1/dw
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > On Mon, 27 May 2002, Adrian Pitt wrote:
> >
> > > I can't answer that question because 1. I don't do wave
> > counts on the
> > > US markets and 2. I don't keep any sort of record of the
> > regularity of
> > > pattern types. Sorry.
> > >
> > > Adrian
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: M. Simms [mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Sunday, 26 May 2002 9:16 PM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
> > >
> > >
> > > I have Neely's book...and I can attest to it's completeness....and
> > > complexity. The number of rules explained in that bible are
> > > staggering. if AGET or any other EWT software implements
> > these rules
> > > in exacting detail, I would be really impressed.
> > >
> > > One key issue re: "As for C's being zig-zags, that's only
> > true if the
> > > C wave was part of a "B' or "X' wave triangle, or part of a
> > > Terminating Triangle. " For the S&P or Dow Jones average - hourly
> > > chart, what percentage of C waves fall into the
> > classification above ?
> > > 10%, 30%, 50% ?
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Adrian Pitt [mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Sunday, May 26, 2002 12:55 AM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
> > >
> > >
> > > Frost's work may be the bible, but its certainly not something you
> > > would use to make market analysis off. That's like leaving school
> > > after 6th grade and expecting to be a university professor. Clearly
> > > ridiculous. There is only one work I regard as the bible, and that
> > > speaking from almost 15 years of real time use. I'm speaking of
> > > Neely's book "Mastering Elliott Wave Theory". I warn
> > readers though
> > > it is only for the very serious Elliott student, and actually not
> > > something I would recommend generally. As for C's being zig-zags,
> > > that's only true if the C wave was part of a "B' or "X'
> > wave triangle,
> > > or part of a Terminating Triangle. There are NO 3 wave C's in a
> > > non-terminating impulse pattern...end of story. To suggest
> > zig-zag C
> > > waves are common is absurd. How would anyone gain any benefit from
> > > EWT is they never knew whether the C wave was going to be a 3 or 5
> > > wave affair???? Clearly the theory would be useless. Thankfully,
> > > readers, you can be rest assured Frost and Elliott were generally
> > > right. ALL (except for those highlighted above) 'C' waves
> > in 'abc'
> > > are 5 wave affairs.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Adrian Pitt
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Joe Duffy [mailto:joeduffy@xxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Friday, 24 May 2002 10:49 AM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
> > >
> > >
> > > When Jack Frost wrote analysis part what is now kind of the
> > bible of
> > > Elliot (Prechter wrote the postcsript part), he wrote as Elliot did
> > > that all c's are 5's. Having kept hourly dow charts by hand
> > for about
> > > 8 years (a while ago) I can say in my experience all C's
> > are not 5's,
> > > and a zig-zag C is common.
> > >
> > > ---- Original Message -----
> > > From: Don <mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> Ewers
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 11:22 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index forecast
> > >
> > > Lee,
> > > Wave C if and when it unfolds after a wave c:B advance
> > should not be a
> > > zig-zag but a five wave decline FWIW. don ewers
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Lee <mailto:LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx> Morris
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 9:45 PM
> > > Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
> > >
> > > I think you are right on with both the short and long. The only
> > > difference I have is that on the long range forecast I favor the
> > > possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A (of B),
> > since jan
> > > as wave B (which is close to ending) and the next major
> > rally wave C
> > > of B then the final down move to at or below sept would be
> > wave C of a
> > > zig zag. Practically it does not change how I would trade
> > regardless
> > > of if you are right and this is a baby bull or the second
> > option that
> > > this is a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the
> > upcoming rally
> > > should be very powerful. The only issue I have is with the
> > VIX and P/C
> > > ratio, at the current levels I do not think that we have
> > the fuel for
> > > this kind of rally so I would like to see the final move to your
> > > target of 1030 be fast and furious to scare some people.
> > -----Original
> > > Message-----
> > > From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 6:55 PM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [RT] SPX index forecast
> > >
> > >
> > > I am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a
> > > contribution. I know that some of you are professionals and
> > I welcome
> > > your comments and insights to my analysis.
> > >
> > > It appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you
> > > were anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at
> > 1106.59 and then
> > > again touched that level on an intra-day basis the next
> > day. I believe
> > > there is a reasonable possibility that the market could
> > move back up
> > > near the turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the
> > > move down. I believe there is an even smaller chance that
> > the market
> > > may even slightly exceed the high and actually make the
> > turn as late
> > > as 5-28.
> > >
> > > My short term forecast:
> > >
> > > I am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four
> > days of 6-4.
> > > My target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move
> > from 5-7
> > > to 5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of
> > > 1106.59 and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8%
> > > retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of
> > > 1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate in the
> > projected
> > > target range, it has the potential to be the end point of the
> > > correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the
> > > stage for a significant and sustainable move up. My longer term
> > > forecast: Normally my technical focus is on a much shorter
> > time frame,
> > > but when I saw that we might be about to complete the correction of
> > > the move from 9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a little
> > longer term
> > > perspective. On the attached and or pictured chart (I will
> > attempt to
> > > do both) I have drawn a trend line from the bottom of the
> > first move
> > > down from the March 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001
> > > and September of 2001. I have also drawn a trend line from
> > the top of
> > > the first upward reaction to the initial down move from the
> > March 2000
> > > high and connected it to the high made in May of 2001.
> > > As you can see these trend lines clearly define the trading
> > channel of
> > > the bear market. Looking at this chart the first indication
> > we have that
> > > the bear market is over, is the penetration of the top
> > trend line and
> > > the fact that the market has traded outside the bear market
> > channel for
> > > most of this year.
> > > My current time frame for the next low turning point is
> > within four days
> > > of 6-4. This time frame will be reached on this chart in
> > the next one to
> > > two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027)
> > for the next
> > > low turning point falls on this chart. If during the time
> > frame of the
> > > next one to two bars my projected price range is met it
> > will fall just
> > > above the upper trend line at 1025.
> > > >From an Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be
> > > interpreted as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a
> > simple A-B-C zig
> > > zag correction as labeled on the chart. With the "C" wave
> > terminating
> > > at my projected low turning point, completing wave two, and setting
> > > the stage for the usually dynamic impulse wave three to begin. In
> > > conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my
> > analysis is the
> > > early stages of a new Bull market, and an excellent buying
> > opportunity
> > > dead ahead. E
> > > DGLChart
> > >
> > >
> > >
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