Re: Dec 2001 cotton

[ajf1111@xxxx]

Bill,

Thank you for your link and response, yes I have done it in excel, 
but, My spreadsheets produce numbers only, I do not produce the 
probability cone as shown at the link address.

I am just getting familiar with AFL code, If you know how to produce 
the probability cone in AFL code as shown at the link address, please 
submit.

Also, If you know how to produce the study / exploration as previously 
described, your help would be greatly appreciated.

also, thank you for the link to the pattern software.

best regards
Anthony

--- In amibroker@xxxx, "wavemechanic" <wd78@xxxx> wrote:
> Anthony:
> 
> If you can calculate the probability with Excel, why can't you do so 
with AFL? Is your study similar to Fishback's ODDS probability cones, 
which is summarized below?
> "ODDS Probability Cones (which are greatly influenced by recent 
price volatility) provide you with a visual guide to the most 
probable range of future prices. This range (i.e. the cone's width) is 
determined by recent volatility in prices, the number of time periods 
projected, and the probability percentage (e.g., 68% confidence, 90% 
confidence, etc.). The more volatile the security prices, the wider 
the expected range of future prices and hence the wider the cones. The 
cones always widen from the apex even if recent volatility is very 
low, because as time increases, the better the odds of a significant 
price move." From 
http://www.paritech.com/education/technical/indicators/volatility/odds
.asp.
> 
> Bill
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: ajf1111@xxxx 
> To: amibroker@xxxx 
> Sent: Friday, July 27, 2001 9:25 PM
> Subject: [amibroker] re: Dec 2001 cotton
> 
> 
> Dimitri;
> 
> Thank you for your response to explorations. The study that I am 
> trying to acheive can be used for stocks as well as commodities.
> 
> Along with a visual confirmation as to bullish or bearish a 
market, I 
> also try to quantify market direction with several indicators 
> confirming. 
> 
> To that end, one of my confirming studies deals with 
probabilities.
> I have created several spreadsheets in microsoft excel 97, which 
allow 
> me to find the standard deviation, Historical Volatility, and 
> Probability of market movement. By using these measurements and 
time, 
> I am able to determine what is the Probability of a target price 
to be 
> acheived or not. ( ex. 60% ,70%, 80%, 90%). 
> 
> If you would like me to upload a copy of this spreadsheet. Let me 
> Know.
> 
> Back to the exploration. I guess amibroker can not handle this 
type of 
> study. 
> 
> A sample report of this type of study might look like this;
> 
> testing data: 90 days of history
> test 1: If Friday's close > Thursday's close
> Monday's close: higher-- 11
> lower -- 1
> test 2: If Friday's close < Thursday's close
> Monday's close: higher-- 11
> lower -- 1
> test 3: If Friday's close = Thursday's close
> Monday's close: higher-- 11
> lower -- 1
> 
> As you can see with this type of test, there is a 90% chance of 
> Monday's close being higher. The Probability is 90%, My visual 
> confirmation (technical analysis) is bullish, My indicators are 
> bullish, I will initiate a bullish strategy.
> 
> If you Know of a program that can produce this type of study, 
please 
> let me know. 
> 
> Again, thank you,
> Anthony
> 
> 
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