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Tomasz:
If you read the exchange you will see that it
addressed graphics and calculations beyond the original post.
As I noted, if he can do it in Excel then he should be able to do it in
AFL. You will also note that he is not just talking only about the formula
that you programmed, but also the full calculation involving volatility, etc.,
which is where I jumped in, reflecting my interest in the subject. He
then went beyond the calculation when he said "<FONT
face="Courier New">My spreadsheets produce numbers only, I do not
produce the probability cone as shown at the link address," which addressesthe
graphics and that was discussed. What is the
problem?
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Tomasz Janeczko
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 28, 2001 3:03
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Dec 2001
cotton
Bill,
I would be more than happy if your postcover
things that you were asked for.
Anthony asked you for the AFL formula: you
answered: do it in Excel or Tradestation or Metastock
instead "I don't have an AFL
formula".
Best regards,Tomasz Janeczko===============AmiBroker - the
comprehensive share manager.<A
href="">http://www.amibroker.com
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
wavemechanic
To: <A
title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 28, 20017:32
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Dec
2001 cotton
Anthony:
If you can produce the calculation for the
probability cones in Excel, why can't you plot it in Excel?
I don't believe that AFL can plot the
cones at the present time. They are a standard routine in Metastock
and I have seen them produced with other software (e.g., Tradestation) with
programs written by users. Unless you have one of these software
packages, I suspect that your best bet is to use
Excel.
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=ajf1111@xxxx
href="">ajf1111@xxxx
To: <A
title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 28, 2001 12:35
AM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Dec 2001
cotton
Bill,Thank you for your link and response,yes
I have done it in excel, but, My spreadsheets produce numbers only, I
do not produce the probability cone as shown at the link
address.I am just getting familiar with AFL code, If you knowhow
to produce the probability cone in AFL code as shown at the link
address, please submit.Also, If you know how to produce the
study / exploration as previously described, your help would be
greatly appreciated.also, thank you for the link to the pattern
software.best regardsAnthony--- In amibroker@xxxx,
"wavemechanic" <wd78@xxxx> wrote:> Anthony:> >
If you can calculate the probability with Excel, why can't you do so
with AFL? Is your study similar to Fishback's ODDS probability
cones, which is summarized below?> "ODDS Probability Cones
(which are greatly influenced by recent price volatility) provideyou
with a visual guide to the most probable range of future prices.
This range (i.e. the cone's width) is determined by recent volatility
in prices, the number of time periods projected, and the probability
percentage (e.g., 68% confidence, 90% confidence, etc.). The more
volatile the security prices, the wider the expected range of future
prices and hence the wider the cones. The cones always widen fromthe
apex even if recent volatility is very low, because as time increases,
the better the odds of a significant price move." From <A
href="">http://www.paritech.com/education/technical/indicators/volatility/odds.asp.>
> Bill> ----- Original Message -----
> From: ajf1111@xxxx > To:
amibroker@xxxx > Sent: Friday, July 27, 2001 9:25
PM> Subject: [amibroker] re: Dec 2001 cotton>
> > Dimitri;> > Thank
you for your response to explorations. The study that I am
> trying to acheive can be used for stocks as wellas
commodities.> > Along with a visual confirmation
as to bullish or bearish a market, I > also try to
quantify market direction with several indicators >
confirming. > > To that end, one of my
confirming studies deals with probabilities.> I
have created several spreadsheets in microsoft excel 97, which allow
> me to find the standard deviation, Historical
Volatility, and > Probability of market movement. By
using these measurements and time, > I am ableto
determine what is the Probability of a target price to be
> acheived or not. ( ex. 60% ,70%, 80%, 90%). >
> If you would like me to upload a copy of this
spreadsheet. Let me > Know.>
> Back to the exploration. I guess amibroker can not
handle this type of > study. >
> A sample report of this type of study might looklike
this;> > testing data: 90 days of
history> test 1: If
Friday's close > Thursday's
close>
Monday's close: higher--
11>
lower -- 1> test
2: If Friday's close < Thursday's
close>
Monday's close: higher--
11>
lower -- 1> test
3: If Friday's close = Thursday's
close>
Monday's close: higher--
11>
lower -- 1> > As you can see with this
type of test, there is a 90% chance of > Monday's close
being higher. The Probability is 90%, My visual >
confirmation (technical analysis) is bullish, My indicators are
> bullish, I will initiate a bullish strategy.>
> If you Know of a program that can produce this type
of study, please > let me know. >
> Again, thank you,>
Anthony>
> > >
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