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Bill,
I would be more than happy if your post cover
things that you were asked for.
Anthony asked you for the AFL formula: you
answered: do it in Excel or Tradestation or Metastock
instead "I don't have an AFL
formula".
Best regards,Tomasz Janeczko===============AmiBroker - the
comprehensive share manager.<A
href="">http://www.amibroker.com
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
wavemechanic
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 28, 2001 7:32
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Dec 2001
cotton
Anthony:
If you can produce the calculation for the
probability cones in Excel, why can't you plot it in Excel?
I don't believe that AFL can plot the
cones at the present time. They are a standard routine in Metastockand
I have seen them produced with other software (e.g., Tradestation) with
programs written by users. Unless you have one of these software
packages, I suspect that your best bet is to use Excel.
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=ajf1111@xxxx
href="">ajf1111@xxxx
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 28, 2001 12:35
AM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Dec 2001
cotton
Bill,Thank you for your link and response, yes I
have done it in excel, but, My spreadsheets produce numbers only, Ido
not produce the probability cone as shown at the link address.I
am just getting familiar with AFL code, If you know how to produce the
probability cone in AFL code as shown at the link address, please
submit.Also, If you know how to produce the study / exploration
as previously described, your help would be greatly
appreciated.also, thank you for the link to the pattern
software.best regardsAnthony--- In amibroker@xxxx,
"wavemechanic" <wd78@xxxx> wrote:> Anthony:> > If
you can calculate the probability with Excel, why can't you do so with
AFL? Is your study similar to Fishback's ODDS probability cones,
which is summarized below?> "ODDS Probability Cones (which are
greatly influenced by recent price volatility) provide you with a
visual guide to the most probable range of future prices. This
range (i.e. the cone's width) is determined by recent volatility in
prices, the number of time periods projected, and the probability
percentage (e.g., 68% confidence, 90% confidence, etc.). The more
volatile the security prices, the wider the expected range of future
prices and hence the wider the cones. The cones always widen from the
apex even if recent volatility is very low, because as time increases,
the better the odds of a significant price move." From <A
href="">http://www.paritech.com/education/technical/indicators/volatility/odds.asp.>
> Bill> ----- Original Message -----
> From: ajf1111@xxxx > To:
amibroker@xxxx > Sent: Friday, July 27, 2001 9:25
PM> Subject: [amibroker] re: Dec 2001 cotton>
> > Dimitri;> > Thank
you for your response to explorations. The study that I am
> trying to acheive can be used for stocks as well as
commodities.> > Along with a visual confirmation
as to bullish or bearish a market, I > also try to
quantify market direction with several indicators >
confirming. > > To that end, one of my confirming
studies deals with probabilities.> I have created
several spreadsheets in microsoft excel 97, which allow
> me to find the standard deviation, Historical
Volatility, and > Probability of market movement. By
using these measurements and time, > I am able to
determine what is the Probability of a target price to be
> acheived or not. ( ex. 60% ,70%, 80%, 90%). >
> If you would like me to upload a copy of this
spreadsheet. Let me > Know.> >
Back to the exploration. I guess amibroker can not handle this typeof
> study. > > A sample report of
this type of study might look like this;> >
testing data: 90 days of history> test
1: If Friday's close > Thursday's
close>
Monday's close: higher--
11>
lower -- 1> test
2: If Friday's close < Thursday's
close>
Monday's close: higher--
11>
lower -- 1> test
3: If Friday's close = Thursday's
close>
Monday's close: higher--
11>
lower -- 1> > As you can see with this type
of test, there is a 90% chance of > Monday's close being
higher. The Probability is 90%, My visual > confirmation
(technical analysis) is bullish, My indicators are >
bullish, I will initiate a bullish strategy.> > If
you Know of a program that can produce this type of study, please
> let me know. > > Again, thank
you,>
Anthony>
> > >
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