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Dear Anthony,
Here comes the exploration formula that calculates the numbers you want:
///////////////////////////////////////
monday = dayofweek() == 1;
// monday up after friday > thursday
mup = monday AND ref( close, -1 ) < close AND ref( close, -2 ) < ref( close, -1 );
// monday down after friday > thursday
mdown = monday AND ref( close, -1 ) < close AND ref( close, -2 ) < ref( close, -1 );
// monday up after friday < thursday
mup2 = monday AND ref( close, -1 ) < close AND ref( close, -2 ) > ref( close, -1 );
// monday up after friday < thursday
mdown2 = monday AND ref( close, -1 ) < close AND ref( close, -2 ) > ref( close, -1 );
totmup = lastvalue( cum( mup ) );
totmdown = lastvalue( cum( mdown ) );
totmup2 = lastvalue( cum( mup2 ) );
totmdown2 = lastvalue( cum( mdown2 ) );
filter = totmup > 0;
numcolumns = 4;
column0 = totmup;
column1 = totmdown;
column2 = totmup2;
column3 = totmdown2;
//////////////////////////////////////////////////
Please switch to "Range: n last days" and enter 1 into the "n" field.
Then click Automatic Analysis "Exploration" button.
Hope this one helps you.
One hint for the future: don't belive people saying something is impossible.
If you need AFL guidance ask me.
Best regards,
Tomasz Janeczko
===============
AmiBroker - the comprehensive share manager.
http://www.amibroker.com
----- Original Message -----
From: <ajf1111@xxxx>
To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, July 28, 2001 6:35 AM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Dec 2001 cotton
> Bill,
>
> Thank you for your link and response, yes I have done it in excel,
> but, My spreadsheets produce numbers only, I do not produce the
> probability cone as shown at the link address.
>
> I am just getting familiar with AFL code, If you know how to produce
> the probability cone in AFL code as shown at the link address, please
> submit.
>
> Also, If you know how to produce the study / exploration as previously
> described, your help would be greatly appreciated.
>
> also, thank you for the link to the pattern software.
>
> best regards
> Anthony
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxx, "wavemechanic" <wd78@xxxx> wrote:
> > Anthony:
> >
> > If you can calculate the probability with Excel, why can't you do so
> with AFL? Is your study similar to Fishback's ODDS probability cones,
> which is summarized below?
> > "ODDS Probability Cones (which are greatly influenced by recent
> price volatility) provide you with a visual guide to the most
> probable range of future prices. This range (i.e. the cone's width) is
> determined by recent volatility in prices, the number of time periods
> projected, and the probability percentage (e.g., 68% confidence, 90%
> confidence, etc.). The more volatile the security prices, the wider
> the expected range of future prices and hence the wider the cones. The
> cones always widen from the apex even if recent volatility is very
> low, because as time increases, the better the odds of a significant
> price move." From
> http://www.paritech.com/education/technical/indicators/volatility/odds
> .asp.
> >
> > Bill
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: ajf1111@xxxx
> > To: amibroker@xxxx
> > Sent: Friday, July 27, 2001 9:25 PM
> > Subject: [amibroker] re: Dec 2001 cotton
> >
> >
> > Dimitri;
> >
> > Thank you for your response to explorations. The study that I am
> > trying to acheive can be used for stocks as well as commodities.
> >
> > Along with a visual confirmation as to bullish or bearish a
> market, I
> > also try to quantify market direction with several indicators
> > confirming.
> >
> > To that end, one of my confirming studies deals with
> probabilities.
> > I have created several spreadsheets in microsoft excel 97, which
> allow
> > me to find the standard deviation, Historical Volatility, and
> > Probability of market movement. By using these measurements and
> time,
> > I am able to determine what is the Probability of a target price
> to be
> > acheived or not. ( ex. 60% ,70%, 80%, 90%).
> >
> > If you would like me to upload a copy of this spreadsheet. Let me
> > Know.
> >
> > Back to the exploration. I guess amibroker can not handle this
> type of
> > study.
> >
> > A sample report of this type of study might look like this;
> >
> > testing data: 90 days of history
> > test 1: If Friday's close > Thursday's close
> > Monday's close: higher-- 11
> > lower -- 1
> > test 2: If Friday's close < Thursday's close
> > Monday's close: higher-- 11
> > lower -- 1
> > test 3: If Friday's close = Thursday's close
> > Monday's close: higher-- 11
> > lower -- 1
> >
> > As you can see with this type of test, there is a 90% chance of
> > Monday's close being higher. The Probability is 90%, My visual
> > confirmation (technical analysis) is bullish, My indicators are
> > bullish, I will initiate a bullish strategy.
> >
> > If you Know of a program that can produce this type of study,
> please
> > let me know.
> >
> > Again, thank you,
> > Anthony
> >
> >
> >
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> >
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> >
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