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Anthony:
If you can produce the calculation for the probability
cones in Excel, why can't you plot it in Excel?
I don't believe that AFL can plot the cones
at the present time. They are a standard routine in Metastock and I have
seen them produced with other software (e.g., Tradestation) with programs
written by users. Unless you have one of these software packages, I
suspect that your best bet is to use Excel.
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
ajf1111@xxxxxxxx
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 28, 2001 12:35
AM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Dec 2001
cotton
Bill,Thank you for your link and response, yesI
have done it in excel, but, My spreadsheets produce numbers only, I do not
produce the probability cone as shown at the link address.I am
just getting familiar with AFL code, If you know how to produce the
probability cone in AFL code as shown at the link address, please
submit.Also, If you know how to produce the study / exploration as
previously described, your help would be greatly appreciated.also,
thank you for the link to the pattern software.best
regardsAnthony--- In amibroker@xxxx, "wavemechanic"
<wd78@xxxx> wrote:> Anthony:> > If you can
calculate the probability with Excel, why can't you do so with AFL?
Is your study similar to Fishback's ODDS probability cones, which is
summarized below?> "ODDS Probability Cones (which are greatly
influenced by recent price volatility) provide you with a visual
guide to the most probable range of future prices. This range (i.e. the
cone's width) is determined by recent volatility in prices, the number of
time periods projected, and the probability percentage (e.g., 68%
confidence, 90% confidence, etc.). The more volatile the security prices,
the wider the expected range of future prices and hence the wider the
cones. The cones always widen from the apex even if recent volatilityis
very low, because as time increases, the better the odds of a significant
price move." From <A
href="">http://www.paritech.com/education/technical/indicators/volatility/odds.asp.>
> Bill> ----- Original Message -----
> From: ajf1111@xxxx > To:
amibroker@xxxx > Sent: Friday, July 27, 2001 9:25
PM> Subject: [amibroker] re: Dec 2001 cotton>
> > Dimitri;> > Thankyou
for your response to explorations. The study that I am >
trying to acheive can be used for stocks as well as commodities.>
> Along with a visual confirmation as to bullish or bearish
a market, I > also try to quantify market direction
with several indicators > confirming. >
> To that end, one of my confirming studies deals with
probabilities.> I have created several spreadsheets in
microsoft excel 97, which allow > me to find the
standard deviation, Historical Volatility, and >
Probability of market movement. By using these measurements and time,
> I am able to determine what is the Probability of a
target price to be > acheived or not. ( ex. 60% ,70%,
80%, 90%). > > If you would like me to upload acopy
of this spreadsheet. Let me > Know.>
> Back to the exploration. I guess amibroker can not handle
this type of > study. > > A
sample report of this type of study might look like this;>
> testing data: 90 days of history> test
1: If Friday's close > Thursday's
close>
Monday's close: higher--
11>
lower -- 1> test
2: If Friday's close < Thursday's
close>
Monday's close: higher--
11>
lower -- 1> test
3: If Friday's close = Thursday's
close>
Monday's close: higher--
11>
lower -- 1> > As you can see with this type of
test, there is a 90% chance of > Monday's close being
higher. The Probability is 90%, My visual > confirmation
(technical analysis) is bullish, My indicators are >
bullish, I will initiate a bullish strategy.> > If
you Know of a program that can produce this type of study, please
> let me know. > > Again, thank
you,>
Anthony>
> > >
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