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Bill,
I am sorry. Obviously I need a vacation
:-)
Best regards,Tomasz Janeczko===============AmiBroker - the
comprehensive share manager.<A
href="">http://www.amibroker.com
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
wavemechanic
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 28, 2001 1:20
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Dec 2001
cotton
Tomasz:
If you read the exchange you will see that it
addressed graphics and calculations beyond the original post.
As I noted, if he can do it in Excel then he should be able to do itin
AFL. You will also note that he is not just talking only about the
formula that you programmed, but also the full calculation involving
volatility, etc., which is where I jumped in, reflecting my interest in the
subject. He then went beyond the calculation when he
said "My spreadsheets produce
numbers only, I do not produce the probability cone as shown at the link
address," which addresses the graphics and that was discussed. Whatis
the problem?
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Tomasz Janeczko
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 28, 2001 3:03
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Dec2001
cotton
Bill,
I would be more than happy if your post cover
things that you were asked for.
Anthony asked you for the AFL formula: you
answered: do it in Excel or Tradestation or Metastock
instead "I don't have an AFL
formula".
Best regards,Tomasz Janeczko===============AmiBroker - the
comprehensive share manager.<A
href="">http://www.amibroker.com
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=wd78@xxxx
href="">wavemechanic
To: <A
title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 28, 2001 7:32
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Dec
2001 cotton
Anthony:
If you can produce the calculation for the
probability cones in Excel, why can't you plot it in Excel?
I don't believe that AFL can plot the
cones at the present time. They are a standard routine in Metastock
and I have seen them produced with other software (e.g., Tradestation)
with programs written by users. Unless you have one of these
software packages, I suspect that your best bet is to use
Excel.
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=ajf1111@xxxx
href="">ajf1111@xxxx
To: <A
title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 28, 2001 12:35
AM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Dec2001
cotton
Bill,Thank you for your link and response,
yes I have done it in excel, but, My spreadsheets produce numbers
only, I do not produce the probability cone as shown at the link
address.I am just getting familiar with AFL code, If you know
how to produce the probability cone in AFL code as shown at thelink
address, please submit.Also, If you know how to producethe
study / exploration as previously described, your help would be
greatly appreciated.also, thank you for the link to the pattern
software.best regardsAnthony--- In amibroker@xxxxxx,
"wavemechanic" <wd78@xxxx> wrote:> Anthony:>
> If you can calculate the probability with Excel, why can'tyou
do so with AFL? Is your study similar to Fishback's ODDS
probability cones, which is summarized below?> "ODDS
Probability Cones (which are greatly influenced by recent price
volatility) provide you with a visual guide to the most
probable range of future prices. This range (i.e. the cone's width)
is determined by recent volatility in prices, the number of time
periods projected, and the probability percentage (e.g., 68%
confidence, 90% confidence, etc.). The more volatile the security
prices, the wider the expected range of future prices and hencethe
wider the cones. The cones always widen from the apex even if recent
volatility is very low, because as time increases, the better the
odds of a significant price move." From <A
href="">http://www.paritech.com/education/technical/indicators/volatility/odds.asp.>
> Bill> ----- Original Message -----
> From: ajf1111@xxxx > To:
amibroker@xxxx > Sent: Friday, July 27, 2001 9:25
PM> Subject: [amibroker] re: Dec 2001 cotton>
> > Dimitri;> >
Thank you for your response to explorations. The study that I am
> trying to acheive can be used for stocks as well as
commodities.> > Along with a visual
confirmation as to bullish or bearish a market, I
> also try to quantify market direction with several
indicators > confirming. >
> To that end, one of my confirming studies deals
with probabilities.> I have created several
spreadsheets in microsoft excel 97, which allow >
me to find the standard deviation, Historical Volatility, and
> Probability of market movement. By using these
measurements and time, > I am able to determine
what is the Probability of a target price to be >
acheived or not. ( ex. 60% ,70%, 80%, 90%). >
> If you would like me to upload a copy of this
spreadsheet. Let me > Know.>
> Back to the exploration. I guess amibroker cannot
handle this type of > study. >
> A sample report of this type of study might look
like this;> > testing data: 90 days of
history> test 1:
If Friday's close > Thursday's
close>
Monday's close: higher--
11>
lower -- 1> test
2: If Friday's close < Thursday's
close>
Monday's close: higher--
11>
lower -- 1> test
3: If Friday's close = Thursday's
close>
Monday's close: higher--
11>
lower -- 1> > As you can see with this
type of test, there is a 90% chance of > Monday's
close being higher. The Probability is 90%, My visual
> confirmation (technical analysis) is bullish, My
indicators are > bullish, I will initiate a bullish
strategy.> > If you Know of a program that can
produce this type of study, please > let me know.
> > Again, thank you,>
Anthony>
> >
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