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There are lots of ways to play the markets. In my case, the NYSE and NASDAQ
breadth models are still showing large bearish divergences and a complete
breakdown from highs so the models suggest short trades have best odds of
succeeding. I am still hopping for higher highs for better short opportunities
but not counting on it.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, August 11, 2005 10:32
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
You could be right, but until there is a sell
signal the is no use fighting price action other then catching some contra
trend trades.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, August 11, 2005 9:21
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
I believe that the next "big" money is going to be made on the
downside. I have been shorting these rallies with short entries at hourly
price targets and covering when decline runs out of momentum. I still
have outstanding targets in the mid to high 1250's along with resting
orders, however it's not a given that the targets will be met given the
increasingly labored tenor of the market.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, August 11, 2005 10:03
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
the leg down found support at 1225 and 1245
did act as resistance as called for a retracement did occur. I still
do not have a longer term sell signal nor to I have a new entry price for
the next leg up. therefore the upside target remains in force. Have
a good week end. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 8:32
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
I have no longer term sell on the
SPX. I have resistance, a price objective, at 1244 and an over all
target of 1262 for the move up. My short term downside target is
1239 which appears to have been reached and another leg down is setting
up. If the entry price is hit look for support at 1239 and a
target price of 1237. Right now the entry price hasn't been
hit for this next leg down. There is also an entry price for the
next move up. If that is hit the profit potential for that move
far exceeds the current potential for a down move.
There is nothing happening right now that
says that the up move is over even though there is a retracement
currently going on.
Ira. .
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 7:51
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
I do not trade dia or Dow
futures
only spy and sp05u
if you can translate into spy or
sp05u I can see our # mach
(you could do at your
leisure)
best regards
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005
10:38 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
This is where we differ and our trading
styles show our conflicting approach. It appears that you are
trading off of extremes that are produced by your charts and I would
trade when price has hit my entry price. We seem to both come
up with similar answers. You scale in and I would trade the
max that my money management would allow. Both have
stops. My stop tells me I am wrong. I have no idea how
you create your stop.
Right now I would be short with an
entry price of 10694 with support at 10685 and a target at
10670. Stop at 10725. All specific numbers, these are
rounded, with indicator confirmation.
do these numbers fit your
scenario?
Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005
6:37 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
Hello Ira
this is why i put only 25% of
the position and always has an exit point which is a stop
loss
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005
1:17 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
So far so good. Ben you are a
couple of days early for a real short I believe.
We are at that 10,725 resistance area and a retracement of sorts
should occur.
Once again one mans opinion,
Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 19,
2005 11:22 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
Congratulations on a great set of
charts. The interesting thing is that different people
look at the same chart and see different things.
Using the daily chart only it would take a drop of over 250
points in the Dow to start a retracement with a magnitude of
over 1000 points. That leaves a huge stop. For it
to even begin 10,400 would have to be taken out and there
would be support at 10,000, that would make for part of
the move, 600 points +/-.
ON the up side I have a very high
price target of just over 13,000, with shorter term targets at
11,025 and 11,280.
There are resistance levels at
10,650, 10,725 and 10,960. These resistance levels are
interim price objectives and retracements should occur from
these levels. It is the magnitude of the retracement
that will make the difference as to whether price continues up
or goes down to test previous levels as support.
Like your work Ben.
Just a little different input
using different data. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 19,
2005 10:31 AM
Subject: [RT] market
outlook
The Dow Industrial
Average has broken out of the intermediate consolidation
pattern, closing above resistance at [3], then drawing into
a narrow range at [4], before further gains at [5]. Volumes
were light until Friday [5] which experienced increased
selling (signaled by the weak close). Expect a test of
resistance at 10900/11000. A pull-back that respects 10550
would add confirmation; while a retreat below 10550 would
signal further hesitancy.
The last year has established strong support at
10000/9750. There is also strong resistance at 11000/11500,
shown by price action from 1999 to 2001 and by recent highs
in 2005. I expect to see a lot more price action between
these levels before there is a clear breakout. Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation, with a strong
rise above the zero line. If the indicator rises above the
recent high, without crossing below zero, that would be a
further bull signal.
Transport indicators have failed to follow through on
recent bear signals. Watch for a rally that could take out
the recent highs: Fedex above 90.00 and UPS,
similarly, above its May high.
The Nasdaq
Composite is testing resistance at 2100. A close above
this level (the high of the January to March consolidation)
would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. Friday
showed increased resistance with strong volume and a red
candle (weak close); so a fall below 2050 should not be
discounted, signaling a test of support at 1900.
The
market appears to have more confidence in the (Dow)
heavyweights.
The S&P 500 shows even greater confidence
than the Dow and is close to testing resistance at the March
high of 1225. A close above 1225 would signal resumption of
the primary up-trend.
Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) displays a strong bull signal: a
pull-back that held above the zero line. A rise to a new
6-month high would confirm.
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