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I believe that the next "big" money is going to be made on the downside. I
have been shorting these rallies with short entries at hourly price targets and
covering when decline runs out of momentum. I still have outstanding
targets in the mid to high 1250's along with resting orders, however it's not a
given that the targets will be met given the increasingly labored tenor of the
market.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, August 11, 2005 10:03
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
the leg down found support at 1225 and 1245 did
act as resistance as called for a retracement did occur. I still do not
have a longer term sell signal nor to I have a new entry price for the next
leg up. therefore the upside target remains in force. Have a good week
end. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 8:32
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
I have no longer term sell on the SPX. I
have resistance, a price objective, at 1244 and an over all target of 1262
for the move up. My short term downside target is 1239 which appears
to have been reached and another leg down is setting up. If the entry
price is hit look for support at 1239 and a target price of
1237. Right now the entry price hasn't been hit for this next
leg down. There is also an entry price for the next move up. If
that is hit the profit potential for that move far exceeds the current
potential for a down move.
There is nothing happening right now that says
that the up move is over even though there is a retracement currently going
on.
Ira. .
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 7:51
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
I do not trade dia or Dow
futures
only spy and sp05u
if you can translate into spy or sp05u
I can see our # mach
(you could do at your leisure)
best regards
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 10:38
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
This is where we differ and our trading
styles show our conflicting approach. It appears that you are
trading off of extremes that are produced by your charts and I would
trade when price has hit my entry price. We seem to both come up
with similar answers. You scale in and I would trade the max that
my money management would allow. Both have stops. My
stop tells me I am wrong. I have no idea how you create your stop.
Right now I would be short with an entry
price of 10694 with support at 10685 and a target at 10670.
Stop at 10725. All specific numbers, these are rounded, with
indicator confirmation.
do these numbers fit your
scenario?
Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 6:37
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
Hello Ira
this is why i put only 25% of the
position and always has an exit point which is a stop
loss
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005
1:17 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
So far so good. Ben you are a
couple of days early for a real short I believe. We
are at that 10,725 resistance area and a retracement of sorts should
occur.
Once again one mans opinion, Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005
11:22 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
Congratulations on a great set of
charts. The interesting thing is that different people look
at the same chart and see different things. Using the
daily chart only it would take a drop of over 250 points in the
Dow to start a retracement with a magnitude of over 1000
points. That leaves a huge stop. For it to even begin
10,400 would have to be taken out and there would be support at
10,000, that would make for part of the move, 600 points
+/-.
ON the up side I have a very high
price target of just over 13,000, with shorter term targets at
11,025 and 11,280.
There are resistance levels at
10,650, 10,725 and 10,960. These resistance levels are
interim price objectives and retracements should occur from these
levels. It is the magnitude of the retracement that will
make the difference as to whether price continues up or goes down
to test previous levels as support.
Like your work Ben.
Just a little different input using
different data. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005
10:31 AM
Subject: [RT] market
outlook
The Dow Industrial Average
has broken out of the intermediate consolidation pattern,
closing above resistance at [3], then drawing into a narrow
range at [4], before further gains at [5]. Volumes were light
until Friday [5] which experienced increased selling (signaled
by the weak close). Expect a test of resistance at 10900/11000.
A pull-back that respects 10550 would add confirmation; while a
retreat below 10550 would signal further hesitancy.
The last year has established strong support at 10000/9750.
There is also strong resistance at 11000/11500, shown by price
action from 1999 to 2001 and by recent highs in 2005. I expect
to see a lot more price action between these levels before there
is a clear breakout. Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation, with a strong rise
above the zero line. If the indicator rises above the recent
high, without crossing below zero, that would be a further bull
signal.
Transport indicators have failed to follow through on
recent bear signals. Watch for a rally that could take out the
recent highs: Fedex above 90.00 and UPS,
similarly, above its May high.
The Nasdaq Composite
is testing resistance at 2100. A close above this level (the
high of the January to March consolidation) would signal
resumption of the primary up-trend. Friday showed increased
resistance with strong volume and a red candle (weak close); so
a fall below 2050 should not be discounted, signaling a test of
support at 1900.
The market appears to have more
confidence in the (Dow) heavyweights.
The S&P 500 shows even greater confidence than
the Dow and is close to testing resistance at the March high of
1225. A close above 1225 would signal resumption of the primary
up-trend.
Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) displays a strong bull signal: a
pull-back that held above the zero line. A rise to a new 6-month
high would confirm.
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