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I have no longer term sell on the SPX. I have
resistance, a price objective, at 1244 and an over all target of 1262 for the
move up. My short term downside target is 1239 which appears to have been
reached and another leg down is setting up. If the entry price is hit look
for support at 1239 and a target price of 1237. Right now the entry
price hasn't been hit for this next leg down. There is also an entry price
for the next move up. If that is hit the profit potential for that move
far exceeds the current potential for a down move.
There is nothing happening right now that says that
the up move is over even though there is a retracement currently going on.
Ira. .
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 7:51 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
I do not trade dia or Dow futures
only spy and sp05u
if you can translate into spy or sp05u I
can see our # mach
(you could do at your leisure)
best regards
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 10:38
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
This is where we differ and our trading styles
show our conflicting approach. It appears that you are trading off of
extremes that are produced by your charts and I would trade when price has
hit my entry price. We seem to both come up with similar
answers. You scale in and I would trade the max that my money
management would allow. Both have stops. My stop tells me
I am wrong. I have no idea how you create your stop.
Right now I would be short with an entry price
of 10694 with support at 10685 and a target at 10670. Stop at
10725. All specific numbers, these are rounded, with indicator
confirmation.
do these numbers fit your
scenario?
Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 6:37
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
Hello Ira
this is why i put only 25% of the
position and always has an exit point which is a stop loss
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 1:17
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
So far so good. Ben you are a couple
of days early for a real short I believe. We are at that
10,725 resistance area and a retracement of sorts should occur.
Once again one mans opinion, Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005 11:22
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market
outlook
Congratulations on a great set of
charts. The interesting thing is that different people look at
the same chart and see different things. Using the daily
chart only it would take a drop of over 250 points in the Dow to start
a retracement with a magnitude of over 1000 points. That leaves
a huge stop. For it to even begin 10,400 would have to be taken
out and there would be support at 10,000, that would make for
part of the move, 600 points +/-.
ON the up side I have a very high price
target of just over 13,000, with shorter term targets at 11,025 and
11,280.
There are resistance levels at 10,650,
10,725 and 10,960. These resistance levels are interim price
objectives and retracements should occur from these levels. It
is the magnitude of the retracement that will make the difference as
to whether price continues up or goes down to test previous levels as
support.
Like your work Ben.
Just a little different input using
different data. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005
10:31 AM
Subject: [RT] market
outlook
The Dow Industrial Average has
broken out of the intermediate consolidation pattern, closing above
resistance at [3], then drawing into a narrow range at [4], before
further gains at [5]. Volumes were light until Friday [5] which
experienced increased selling (signaled by the weak close). Expect a
test of resistance at 10900/11000. A pull-back that respects 10550
would add confirmation; while a retreat below 10550 would signal
further hesitancy.
The last year has established strong support at 10000/9750.
There is also strong resistance at 11000/11500, shown by price
action from 1999 to 2001 and by recent highs in 2005. I expect to
see a lot more price action between these levels before there is a
clear breakout. Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation, with a strong rise
above the zero line. If the indicator rises above the recent high,
without crossing below zero, that would be a further bull
signal.
Transport indicators have failed to follow through on recent
bear signals. Watch for a rally that could take out the recent
highs: Fedex above 90.00 and UPS, similarly, above its
May high.
The Nasdaq Composite
is testing resistance at 2100. A close above this level (the
high of the January to March consolidation) would signal resumption
of the primary up-trend. Friday showed increased resistance with
strong volume and a red candle (weak close); so a fall below 2050
should not be discounted, signaling a test of support at
1900.
The market appears to have more confidence in the (Dow)
heavyweights.
The S&P 500 shows even greater confidence than the
Dow and is close to testing resistance at the March high of 1225. A
close above 1225 would signal resumption of the primary up-trend.
Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) displays a strong bull signal: a pull-back
that held above the zero line. A rise to a new 6-month high would
confirm.
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