----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005 11:22
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
Congratulations on a great set of charts.
The interesting thing is that different people look at the same chart and
see different things. Using the daily chart only it would take a
drop of over 250 points in the Dow to start a retracement with a magnitude
of over 1000 points. That leaves a huge stop. For it to even
begin 10,400 would have to be taken out and there would be support at
10,000, that would make for part of the move, 600 points +/-.
ON the up side I have a very high price target
of just over 13,000, with shorter term targets at 11,025 and 11,280.
There are resistance levels at 10,650, 10,725
and 10,960. These resistance levels are interim price objectives and
retracements should occur from these levels. It is the magnitude of
the retracement that will make the difference as to whether price continues
up or goes down to test previous levels as support.
Like your work Ben.
Just a little different input using different
data. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005 10:31
AM
Subject: [RT] market outlook
The Dow Industrial Average has broken
out of the intermediate consolidation pattern, closing above resistance at
[3], then drawing into a narrow range at [4], before further gains at [5].
Volumes were light until Friday [5] which experienced increased selling
(signaled by the weak close). Expect a test of resistance at 10900/11000.
A pull-back that respects 10550 would add confirmation; while a retreat
below 10550 would signal further hesitancy.
The last year has established strong support at 10000/9750. There is
also strong resistance at 11000/11500, shown by price action from 1999 to
2001 and by recent highs in 2005. I expect to see a lot more price action
between these levels before there is a clear breakout.
Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation, with a strong rise above the
zero line. If the indicator rises above the recent high, without crossing
below zero, that would be a further bull signal.
Transport indicators have failed to follow through on recent bear
signals. Watch for a rally that could take out the recent highs:
Fedex above 90.00 and UPS, similarly, above its May high.
The Nasdaq Composite is
testing resistance at 2100. A close above this level (the high of the
January to March consolidation) would signal resumption of the primary
up-trend. Friday showed increased resistance with strong volume and a red
candle (weak close); so a fall below 2050 should not be discounted,
signaling a test of support at 1900.
The market appears to have
more confidence in the (Dow) heavyweights.
The S&P 500 shows even greater confidence than the Dow and
is close to testing resistance at the March high of 1225. A close above
1225 would signal resumption of the primary up-trend.
Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) displays a strong bull signal: a pull-back that
held above the zero line. A rise to a new 6-month high would
confirm.
No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG
Anti-Virus.
Version: 7.0.323 / Virus Database: 267.7.8/22 - Release
Date: 6/17/2005
No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG
Anti-Virus.
Version: 7.0.338 / Virus Database: 267.9.7/60 - Release Date:
7/28/2005
