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What would I do if I were Alan? I'd retire and ride off into that
big sunset. Got a nice pretty younger wife and can make tons of
money on the speech circuit.
Nothing you can do once the bubble bursts. Just gotta let it all
play out. The end result is always the same. After you party,
there's always a hangover. And we're in for a big one. Alan saw it
all happen in Japan 10 years earlier and just let it happen again.
You can keep the patient alive on life support like Japan with stupid
protectionist regulations, zero interest rates and fiscal stimulus
which only prolongs the problem by helping unproductive entities
remain in business or you can go cold turkey. I'm assuming we're
looking at 10-12 years of subpar growth. The alternative is
politically unacceptable. And of course Bush will try to get us
involved in every war imaginable to take our minds off the real
problem.
Better take some Chinese lessons because they'll be running things
soon.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
> I know you "really have no opinion" .... but what would
> YOU do now?
>
> BW
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
> > I really have no opinion on either way. I read in several
> > publications during Dubya's campaign that Daddy Bush blamed
> > Greenspan's tight monetary policy for blowing his reelection.
> Daddy
> > Bush had the highest public approval rating immediately after the
> > Gulf War (2/91) and blowing the election was bigger than this
> market
> > reversal. I didn't make it up. Obviously Bush Snr believes
> > Greenspan took too long to loosen and the 91 recession/tepid
> recovery
> > of 92 hurt him. Gotta blame someone and Alan the easiest one to
> > point his finger at. I'm sure "read my lips" and Dan Quayle
didn't
> > help his chances but it reelections really do depend on the state
> of
> > the economy.
> > As far as Alan's loose rate experiment, its well known that Alan
> had
> > this pet theory of tech based productivity gains dampening
> > inflationary pressures. So in spite of strong (service)economy
> gains
> > in 1996-98, he held off from over tightening. In fact, I've
heard
> > that his 3/97 one time hike was done reluctantly at the
insistance
> of
> > the Fed Board. Its also said that Greenspan had a tacit
> > understanding with the Clinton administration (Rubin) that he
would
> > lay off tight monetary policy if they balanced the budget.
> Everyone
> > loves to blame Alan for creating the bubble although now its
clear
> it
> > was all based on false accounting, share buybacks, media hype and
> > greed. The earnings were never there. Of course, demographics
> > (boomers pouring their retirement money into stocks) and foreign
> > investment(strong dollar) had alot to do with it. But the fact
of
> > the matter is that Al simply sat on his hands while it all
spiraled
> > into a mania. He warned of it bubbling in 12/96, watched it take
> off
> > then smugly watched it collapse. Would it have been better if he
> had
> > nipped it in the bud by raising rates more and tightening margin
> > requirements in 1997? I guess that depends on if you got out at
> the
> > top. If he had pulled a Volcker and tightened the screws, the
> Asian
> > crisis, Russian crisis, and LTCM could just as well have
collapsed
> > the entire financial system. My only opinion is that he should
> have
> > at least raised margin requirements. And then there's that
garbage
> > he lays out that he doesn't target the stock market. Yeah
right.
> > Funds are at 1.75% right now. Is the economy that bad right
now?
> > Only because it was allowed to get out of control.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
> > >
> > > > I don't where his allegiances lay.
> > >
> > > >>>Alan was a good friend of the
> > > > > > Clintons. He used to always sit next to Hillary at
public
> > > > > > ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against Al
> > because
> > > he > > > feels his tight policy lost him the election in 1992.
> > >
> > > I guess I didn't understand.
> > >
> > > > But he sure tightened the screws
> > > > in 88-90.
> > >
> > > Rate cuts in 90-92 were too late
> > > > > to save Bush Snr
> > >
> > > Again, I'm not clear. Are you saying he was trying to screw Bush
> > > Sr. or save him?
> > >
> > > > He said the market was "irrational exuberant" in 12/96. We
> > almost
> > > > got back down there last month no thanks to him.
> > >
> > > You're saying his "12/96" speech caused the market to decline
from
> > > 2000-2002?
> > >
> > > I know a lot of folks are bitter about the decline in the
market,
> > > and want to blame someone, but I don't think you can have it
both
> > > ways. If you blame him for the decline don't you have to give
him
> > > credit for the greatest bull market in history? I don't think
he
> > > deserves either. The markets are going to do what they want, all
> > > the fed does is goose it here and there. Check your own time
> > > line as proof: look at a chart after his 1996 speech; the NDX
> > > was up 500%+ in three years.
> > >
> > > BW
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Yeah, another left-winger Ford and Reagan appointed?
> > > > >
> > > > > http://www.federalreserve.gov/bios/greenspan.htm
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > > > > > They said the same in fall 1998. Alan was a good friend
of
> > the
> > > > > > Clintons. He used to always sit next to Hillary at
public
> > > > > > ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against Al
> > because
> > > > he
> > > > > > feels his tight policy lost him the election in 1992.
> > Remember
> > > > Al
> > > > > > raised rates up to 11% in 1989. Rate cuts in 90-92 were
> too
> > > late
> > > > > to
> > > > > > save Bush Snr although they sure made Clinton look
good.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > > > > Quite the contrary. The Fed will avoid moving right
> before
> > > an
> > > > > > election
> > > > > > > unless things are really bad. If the economy continues
> to
> > > > > sputter
> > > > > > along as
> > > > > > > it is doing now, there will be no change in rates.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Kent
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 11:29 AM
> > > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > With the Bush administration, ANYTHING GOES RIGHT
NOW....
> > > > > > > WAIT.....Doesn't the FOMC meet BEFORE September 30th ?
> > > > > > > I think it's SEPTEMBER 24th.....just ONE WEEK
> > BEFORE.....HOW
> > > > > > CONVENIENT.
> > > > > > > Hmmmmm.......I wonder what will happen to S/T interest
> > rates
> > > > > > then ?? (duh !)
> > > > > > > "FOMC lowers Fed Funds by a record by 75 basis
> > > > points......stock
> > > > > > markets
> > > > > > > rise sharply.....mutual fund holders now happy
> > > campers......GOP
> > > > > > election
> > > > > > > chances now improved"
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > BTW: I just love to shake you guys up...
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > > From: Norman Winski [mailto:nwinski@x...]
> > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:15 AM
> > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > M Simms,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Hey, maybe they have Arafat bidding up the market
> with
> > > his
> > > > > > secret
> > > > > > > > billionaire dollar account? And the Bush
> administration
> > is
> > > > bad
> > > > > > > > mouthing the
> > > > > > > > Saudis so no one will suspect they are trading for
the
> > CIA?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Conspiringly,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Norman
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:00 AM
> > > > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > NYSE volume of 1.5 billion today.....weak ?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Also, let's not forget the Sept 30th date in NEON
> LITES
> > > > > hanging
> > > > > > in the
> > > > > > > > white
> > > > > > > > > house......
> > > > > > > > > they gotta keep the market up till then.....or else
> > WHAM,
> > > > > > goodbye GOP in
> > > > > > > > > November.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > These fierce non-news-related afternoon rallies are
> > just
> > > so
> > > > > > > > suspicious.....I
> > > > > > > > > wonder if Bush has the CIA hitting the BUY order
> > buttons
> > > all
> > > > > > > > afternoon in
> > > > > > > > > the eminis.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > > > > From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@x...]
> > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 14, 2002 7:38 PM
> > > > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > > > > > Cc: MedianLine@xxxx
> > > > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > I know general TA consensus says that we have
> broken
> > a
> > > > major
> > > > > > > > > > resistance and 947 or better is in sight tomorrow.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > This may be true but this rally could have also
> been
> > > > fueled
> > > > > > by the
> > > > > > > > > > absence of major bad news and CEOs signing on the
> > > dotted
> > > > > > line.Plus
> > > > > > > > > > coming off the heels of a major decline never
hurts.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Tomorrow I believe that:
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > 1. UAL will announce Bankruptcy plans
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > 2. Major CEOs of certain firms will not sign
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > 3. Companies will announce a need to redo back
years
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > 4. While we passed the early Aug. high we are
still
> > > below
> > > > > > July highs
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > 5. The 200 day moving average is a long way off
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > 6. 775.9 may have been the low for this cycle but
> > that
> > > > does
> > > > > > not mean
> > > > > > > > > > 880 will not be retested.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > We can move higher but I think we will end lower.
> It
> > > > would
> > > > > > not take
> > > > > > > > > > much to derail this uptrend which until now has
> been
> > > > fueled
> > > > > > by weak
> > > > > > > > > > volume.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > This one may have passed a "magic" number but
that
> > does
> > > > not
> > > > > > mean that
> > > > > > > > > > it "is" the magic number to climb aboard.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Thoughts?
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
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