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In the last analysis, the one that controls raw
materials controls. Russia and China are definitely in that category, if
they don't screw things up too bad.
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
ira
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, August 16, 2002 2:38
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Thursday Prognosis
of S&P
You can't solve problems by exporting them. Part of
Japans problem isChina and part of Taiwan's problem will soon be mainland
China. Take a goodlook around you. We no longer manufacture
shoes, cloths, electronics manyauto parts. Look at the labels of
what you buy and note where the foodcomes from that you eat. Fruit ,
vegetables, fish, beef, lamb and soyproducts are all being imported
because it is cheaper then we can produce ithere. Take the semi
conductor chip or ram. Taiwan can produce them forabout 2/3 of the
cost in the US and China can produce them at 2/3 the costof
Taiwan. Made in the U.S.A. now means made elsewhere and assembled
here.How many parts of your computer were manufactured in the US or your
TV,refrigerator, car, or any other item that you buy. They are
even talkingabout having our war planes, tanks and other military
equipment manufacturedoverseas. The balance of payments should tell
you something. Then look atthe work force in the high tech
industry. How many of them are from China,Japan, India, Israel and
other countries. So now we have two areas ofconcern in the
immigration area. High tech and field workers, but withoutthem where
would we be? We do have a thriving wine industry though
whichis rapidly being encroached upon. So when you talk about
lessons, maybe weshould look around and take a few lessons from some other
countries. Ourreal estate bubble isn't as great as Japans was, but
our stock market bubblewas and the cure isn't over yet. So
while you ponder these things, sitback with a good bottle of wine,
California of course, and relax. Ira.----- Original
Message -----From: "Clyde Lee" <<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent:
Thursday, August 15, 2002 8:50 PMSubject: Re: [RT] Re: Thursday Prognosis
of S&P> You say:>> Better take some Chinese
lessons because they'll be running things> soon.>> After
over 200 years of enduring this "rotten" thing that we have in> this
country can we not expect to endure for another 200 years> even though
China has a lot more people.>> If it came to a real war we would
probably lose but if it is only> an economic war we will probably solve
that problem in the> same way that we solved the Japanese problem after
WW2.>> Clyde>>> - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -> Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)> SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540> Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092> Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com> -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ->>
----- Original Message -----> From: "bondo92677" <<A
href="mailto:bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 10:39 PM> Subject: [RT] Re: Thursday
Prognosis of S&P>>> > What would I do if I were
Alan? I'd retire and ride off into that> > big sunset.
Got a nice pretty younger wife and can make tons of> > money on the
speech circuit.> > Nothing you can do once the bubble bursts.
Just gotta let it all> > play out. The end result is always
the same. After you party,> > there's always a hangover.
And we're in for a big one. Alan saw it> > all happen in Japan
10 years earlier and just let it happen again.> > You can keep the
patient alive on life support like Japan with stupid> >
protectionist regulations, zero interest rates and fiscal stimulus>
> which only prolongs the problem by helping unproductive entities>
> remain in business or you can go cold turkey. I'm assuming
we're> > looking at 10-12 years of subpar growth. The
alternative is> > politically unacceptable. And of course Bush
will try to get us> > involved in every war imaginable to take our
minds off the real> > problem.> > Better take some Chinese
lessons because they'll be running things> > soon.>
>> >> > --- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x..., "tradewynne" <<A
href="mailto:tradewynne@x";>tradewynne@x...> wrote:> > > I
know you "really have no opinion" .... but what would> > > YOU do
now?> > >> > > BW> > >> >
>> > > --- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x..., "bondo92677" <<A
href="mailto:bruce.larson@x";>bruce.larson@x...> wrote:> >
> > I really have no opinion on either way. I read in
several> > > > publications during Dubya's campaign that Daddy
Bush blamed> > > > Greenspan's tight monetary policy for
blowing his reelection.> > > Daddy> > > > Bush
had the highest public approval rating immediately after the> > >
> Gulf War (2/91) and blowing the election was bigger than this>
> > market> > > > reversal. I didn't make it
up. Obviously Bush Snr believes> > > > Greenspan took
too long to loosen and the 91 recession/tepid> > >
recovery> > > > of 92 hurt him. Gotta blame someone and
Alan the easiest one to> > > > point his finger at. I'm
sure "read my lips" and Dan Quayle> > didn't> > > >
help his chances but it reelections really do depend on the state> >
> of> > > > the economy.> > > > As far as
Alan's loose rate experiment, its well known that Alan> > >
had> > > > this pet theory of tech based productivity gains
dampening> > > > inflationary pressures. So in spite of
strong (service)economy> > > gains> > > > in
1996-98, he held off from over tightening. In fact, I've> >
heard> > > > that his 3/97 one time hike was done reluctantly
at the> > insistance> > > of> > > > the
Fed Board. Its also said that Greenspan had a tacit> > >
> understanding with the Clinton administration (Rubin) that he>
> would> > > > lay off tight monetary policy if they
balanced the budget.> > > Everyone> > > > loves
to blame Alan for creating the bubble although now its> >
clear> > > it> > > > was all based on false
accounting, share buybacks, media hype and> > > > greed.
The earnings were never there. Of course, demographics> > >
> (boomers pouring their retirement money into stocks) and foreign>
> > > investment(strong dollar) had alot to do with it. But the
fact> > of> > > > the matter is that Al simply sat
on his hands while it all> > spiraled> > > > into a
mania. He warned of it bubbling in 12/96, watched it take> >
> off> > > > then smugly watched it collapse. Would
it have been better if he> > > had> > > > nipped
it in the bud by raising rates more and tightening margin> > >
> requirements in 1997? I guess that depends on if you got out
at> > > the> > > > top. If he had pulled a
Volcker and tightened the screws, the> > > Asian> >
> > crisis, Russian crisis, and LTCM could just as well have>
> collapsed> > > > the entire financial system. My
only opinion is that he should> > > have> > > >
at least raised margin requirements. And then there's that> >
garbage> > > > he lays out that he doesn't target the stock
market. Yeah> > right.> > > > Funds are at
1.75% right now. Is the economy that bad right> > now?>
> > > Only because it was allowed to get out of control.> >
> >> > > >> > > >> > >
>> > > > --- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x..., "tradewynne" <<A
href="mailto:tradewynne@x";>tradewynne@x...> wrote:> > >
> > --- In realtraders@x...,
"bondo92677" <bruce.larson@x...>
wrote:> > > > >> > > > > > I don't
where his allegiances lay.> > > > >> > > >
> >>>Alan was a good friend of the> > > > >
> > > Clintons. He used to always sit next to Hillary
at> > public> > > > > > > >
ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against Al> > >
> because> > > > > he > > > feels his tight
policy lost him the election in 1992.> > > > >> >
> > > I guess I didn't understand.> > > >
>> > > > > > But he sure tightened the screws>
> > > > > in 88-90.> > > > >> >
> > > Rate cuts in 90-92 were too late> > > > >
> > to save Bush Snr> > > > >> > > >
> Again, I'm not clear. Are you saying he was trying to screw Bush>
> > > > Sr. or save him?> > > > >> >
> > > > He said the market was "irrational exuberant" in
12/96. We> > > > almost> > > > > >
got back down there last month no thanks to him.> > > >
>> > > > > You're saying his "12/96" speech caused the
market to decline> > from> > > > >
2000-2002?> > > > >> > > > > I know a
lot of folks are bitter about the decline in the> > market,>
> > > > and want to blame someone, but I don't think you can have
it> > both> > > > > ways. If you blame him for
the decline don't you have to give> > him> > > >
> credit for the greatest bull market in history? I don't think>
> he> > > > > deserves either. The markets are going to
do what they want, all> > > > > the fed does is goose it
here and there. Check your own time> > > > > line as proof:
look at a chart after his 1996 speech; the NDX> > > > > was
up 500%+ in three years.> > > > >> > > >
> BW> > > > >> > > > > >>
> > > > >> > > > > >> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@x...,
"tradewynne" <tradewynne@x...>
wrote:> > > > > > > Yeah, another left-winger Ford
and Reagan appointed?> > > > > > >> > >
> > > > <A
href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/bios/greenspan.htm";>http://www.federalreserve.gov/bios/greenspan.htm>
> > > > > >> > > > > > >>
> > > > > > --- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x..., "bondo92677" <<A
href="mailto:bruce.larson@x";>bruce.larson@x...>> > >
wrote:> > > > > > > > They said the same in fall
1998. Alan was a good friend> > of> > > >
the> > > > > > > > Clintons. He used to
always sit next to Hillary at> > public> > > > >
> > > ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against
Al> > > > because> > > > > > he>
> > > > > > > feels his tight policy lost him the
election in 1992.> > > > Remember> > > > >
> Al> > > > > > > > raised rates up to 11% in
1989. Rate cuts in 90-92 were> > > too> > >
> > late> > > > > > > to> > > >
> > > > save Bush Snr although they sure made Clinton look>
> good.> > > > > > > >> > > >
> > > >> > > > > > > >> >
> > > > > > --- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x..., "Kent Rollins" <<A
href="mailto:kentr@x";>kentr@x...>> > wrote:> > >
> > > > > > Quite the contrary. The Fed will avoid
moving right> > > before> > > > > an>
> > > > > > > election> > > > > >
> > > unless things are really bad. If the economy
continues> > > to> > > > > > >
sputter> > > > > > > > along as> > >
> > > > > > it is doing now, there will be no change in
rates.> > > > > > > > >> > > >
> > > > > Kent> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > >> > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----> > > >
> > > > > From: "M. Simms" <<A
href="mailto:prosys@x";>prosys@x...>> > > > > >
> > > To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x...>> > > >
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 11:29 AM> >
> > > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of
S&P> > > > > > > > >> > > >
> > > > >> > > > > > > > > With
the Bush administration, ANYTHING GOES RIGHT> > NOW....> >
> > > > > > > WAIT.....Doesn't the FOMC meet BEFORE
September 30th ?> > > > > > > > > I think
it's SEPTEMBER 24th.....just ONE WEEK> > > >
BEFORE.....HOW> > > > > > > > CONVENIENT.>
> > > > > > > > Hmmmmm.......I wonder what will happen
to S/T interest> > > > rates> > > > > >
> > then ?? (duh !)> > > > > > > > >
"FOMC lowers Fed Funds by a record by 75 basis> > > > >
> points......stock> > > > > > > >
markets> > > > > > > > > rise
sharply.....mutual fund holders now happy> > > > >
campers......GOP> > > > > > > > election>
> > > > > > > > chances now improved"> >
> > > > > > >> > > > > > > >
> BTW: I just love to shake you guys up...> > > > > >
> > >> > > > > > > > > >
-----Original Message-----> > > > > > > > >
> From: Norman Winski [mailto:nwinski@xxxx]> > > > >
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:15 AM> >
> > > > > > > > To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x...> > > > >
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of
S&P> > > > > > > > > >> > >
> > > > > > >> > > > > > > >
> > M Simms,> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > Hey,
maybe they have Arafat bidding up the market> > > with>
> > > > his> > > > > > > >
secret> > > > > > > > > > billionaire dollar
account? And the Bush> > > administration> > >
> is> > > > > > bad> > > > > >
> > > > mouthing the> > > > > > > >
> > Saudis so no one will suspect they are trading for> >
the> > > > CIA?> > > > > > > >
> >> > > > > > > > > >
Conspiringly,> > > > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > > > Norman> > > >
> > > > > >> > > > > > > > >
> ----- Original Message -----> > > > > > > >
> > From: "M. Simms" <<A
href="mailto:prosys@x";>prosys@x...>> > > > > >
> > > > To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x...>> > > >
> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:00 AM>
> > > > > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday
Prognosis of S&P> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > >> > >
> > > > > > > > NYSE volume of 1.5 billion
today.....weak ?> > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > Also, let's not
forget the Sept 30th date in NEON> > > LITES> > >
> > > > hanging> > > > > > > > in
the> > > > > > > > > > white> >
> > > > > > > > > house......> > >
> > > > > > > > they gotta keep the market up till
then.....or else> > > > WHAM,> > > > > >
> > goodbye GOP in> > > > > > > > > >
> November.> > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > These fierce
non-news-related afternoon rallies are> > > > just>
> > > > so> > > > > > > > > >
suspicious.....I> > > > > > > > > > >
wonder if Bush has the CIA hitting the BUY order> > > >
buttons> > > > > all> > > > > > >
> > > afternoon in> > > > > > > > >
> > the eminis.> > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > >> >
> > > > > > > > > > -----Original
Message-----> > > > > > > > > > > >
From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxx]> > > > > > >
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 14, 2002 7:38 PM> >
> > > > > > > > > > To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x...> > > > >
> > > > > > > Cc: <A
href="mailto:MedianLine@x";>MedianLine@x...> > > > >
> > > > > > > Subject: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of
S&P> > > > > > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > > > > >> > > >
> > > > > > > >> > > > > > >
> > > > > I know general TA consensus says that we have>
> > broken> > > > a> > > > > >
major> > > > > > > > > > > >
resistance and 947 or better is in sight tomorrow.> > > > >
> > > > > > >> > > > > > > >
> > > > This may be true but this rally could have also>
> > been> > > > > > fueled> > > >
> > > > by the> > > > > > > > >
> > > absence of major bad news and CEOs signing on the> >
> > > dotted> > > > > > > >
line.Plus> > > > > > > > > > > >
coming off the heels of a major decline never> > hurts.> >
> > > > > > > > > >> > > > >
> > > > > > > Tomorrow I believe that:> > >
> > > > > > > > >> > > > > >
> > > > > > 1. UAL will announce Bankruptcy plans>
> > > > > > > > > > >> > > >
> > > > > > > > 2. Major CEOs of certain firms will
not sign> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > > 3.
Companies will announce a need to redo back> > years> >
> > > > > > > > > >> > > > >
> > > > > > > 4. While we passed the early Aug. high we
are> > still> > > > > below> > >
> > > > > July highs> > > > > > > >
> > > >> > > > > > > > > > >
> 5. The 200 day moving average is a long way off> > > >
> > > > > > > >> > > > > > >
> > > > > 6. 775.9 may have been the low for this cycle
but> > > > that> > > > > > does>
> > > > > > > not mean> > > > > >
> > > > > > 880 will not be retested.> > > >
> > > > > > > >> > > > > > >
> > > > > We can move higher but I think we will end
lower.> > > It> > > > > > would>
> > > > > > > not take> > > > > >
> > > > > > much to derail this uptrend which until now
has> > > been> > > > > > fueled>
> > > > > > > by weak> > > > > >
> > > > > > volume.> > > > > > >
> > > > >> > > > > > > > > >
> > This one may have passed a "magic" number but> >
that> > > > does> > > > > > not>
> > > > > > > mean that> > > > > >
> > > > > > it "is" the magic number to climb
aboard.> > > > > > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > > > > > Thoughts?> >
> > > > > > > > > >> > > > >
> > > > > > >> > > > > > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:>
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href="mailto:realtraders-unsubscribe@x";>realtraders-unsubscribe@x...>
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