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----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Kent
Rollins
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, August 16, 2002 12:58
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Thursday Prognosis
of S&P
What raw materials does China control?
Certainly coal and major
industrial ores, including strategic materials. Large fossile fuel
reserves are suspected in still unexplored regions. Improved exploration
techniques will probably produce a few more surprises.
Kent
----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx href="mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>wavemechanic
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, August 16, 2002 7:47 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Thursday Prognosis of S&P
In the last analysis, the one that controls raw
materials controls. Russia and China are definitely in that category, if
they don't screw things up too bad.
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
ira
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, August 16, 2002 2:38
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Thursday
Prognosis of S&P
You can't solve problems by exporting them. Part
of Japans problem isChina and part of Taiwan's problem will soon be
mainland China. Take a goodlook around you. We no longer
manufacture shoes, cloths, electronics manyauto parts. Look at the
labels of what you buy and note where the foodcomes from that you
eat. Fruit , vegetables, fish, beef, lamb and soyproducts are all
being imported because it is cheaper then we can produce ithere.
Take the semi conductor chip or ram. Taiwan can produce them
forabout 2/3 of the cost in the US and China can produce them at 2/3 the
costof Taiwan. Made in the U.S.A. now means made elsewhere
and assembled here.How many parts of your computer were manufactured in
the US or your TV,refrigerator, car, or any other item that you
buy. They are even talkingabout having our war planes, tanks and
other military equipment manufacturedoverseas. The balance of
payments should tell you something. Then look atthe work
force in the high tech industry. How many of them are from
China,Japan, India, Israel and other countries. So now we have two
areas ofconcern in the immigration area. High tech and field
workers, but withoutthem where would we be? We do have a
thriving wine industry though whichis rapidly being encroached
upon. So when you talk about lessons, maybe weshould look around
and take a few lessons from some other countries. Ourreal estate
bubble isn't as great as Japans was, but our stock market bubblewas and
the cure isn't over yet. So while you ponder these things,
sitback with a good bottle of wine, California of course, and
relax. Ira.----- Original Message -----From:
"Clyde Lee" <<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent:
Thursday, August 15, 2002 8:50 PMSubject: Re: [RT] Re: Thursday
Prognosis of S&P> You say:>> Better take
some Chinese lessons because they'll be running things>
soon.>> After over 200 years of enduring this "rotten" thing
that we have in> this country can we not expect to endure for another
200 years> even though China has a lot more people.>>
If it came to a real war we would probably lose but if it is only> an
economic war we will probably solve that problem in the> same way
that we solved the Japanese problem after WW2.>>
Clyde>>> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -> Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)> SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540> Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092> Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com>
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
->> ----- Original Message -----> From: "bondo92677"
<<A
href="mailto:bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 10:39 PM> Subject: [RT] Re: Thursday
Prognosis of S&P>>> > What would I do if I were
Alan? I'd retire and ride off into that> > big sunset.
Got a nice pretty younger wife and can make tons of> > money on
the speech circuit.> > Nothing you can do once the bubble
bursts. Just gotta let it all> > play out. The end
result is always the same. After you party,> > there's
always a hangover. And we're in for a big one. Alan saw
it> > all happen in Japan 10 years earlier and just let it happen
again.> > You can keep the patient alive on life support like
Japan with stupid> > protectionist regulations, zero interest
rates and fiscal stimulus> > which only prolongs the problem by
helping unproductive entities> > remain in business or you can go
cold turkey. I'm assuming we're> > looking at 10-12 years of
subpar growth. The alternative is> > politically
unacceptable. And of course Bush will try to get us> >
involved in every war imaginable to take our minds off the real> >
problem.> > Better take some Chinese lessons because they'll be
running things> > soon.> >> >> > ---
In realtraders@x..., "tradewynne" <<A
href="mailto:tradewynne@x";>tradewynne@x...> wrote:> > >
I know you "really have no opinion" .... but what would> > >
YOU do now?> > >> > > BW> > >>
> >> > > --- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x..., "bondo92677" <<A
href="mailto:bruce.larson@x";>bruce.larson@x...> wrote:> >
> > I really have no opinion on either way. I read in
several> > > > publications during Dubya's campaign that
Daddy Bush blamed> > > > Greenspan's tight monetary policy
for blowing his reelection.> > > Daddy> > > >
Bush had the highest public approval rating immediately after the>
> > > Gulf War (2/91) and blowing the election was bigger than
this> > > market> > > > reversal. I
didn't make it up. Obviously Bush Snr believes> > > >
Greenspan took too long to loosen and the 91 recession/tepid> >
> recovery> > > > of 92 hurt him. Gotta blame
someone and Alan the easiest one to> > > > point his finger
at. I'm sure "read my lips" and Dan Quayle> > didn't>
> > > help his chances but it reelections really do depend on the
state> > > of> > > > the economy.> >
> > As far as Alan's loose rate experiment, its well known that
Alan> > > had> > > > this pet theory of tech
based productivity gains dampening> > > > inflationary
pressures. So in spite of strong (service)economy> > >
gains> > > > in 1996-98, he held off from over
tightening. In fact, I've> > heard> > > >
that his 3/97 one time hike was done reluctantly at the> >
insistance> > > of> > > > the Fed Board.
Its also said that Greenspan had a tacit> > > >
understanding with the Clinton administration (Rubin) that he> >
would> > > > lay off tight monetary policy if they balanced
the budget.> > > Everyone> > > > loves to blame
Alan for creating the bubble although now its> > clear>
> > it> > > > was all based on false accounting, share
buybacks, media hype and> > > > greed. The earnings
were never there. Of course, demographics> > > >
(boomers pouring their retirement money into stocks) and foreign>
> > > investment(strong dollar) had alot to do with it. But
the fact> > of> > > > the matter is that Al simply
sat on his hands while it all> > spiraled> > > >
into a mania. He warned of it bubbling in 12/96, watched it
take> > > off> > > > then smugly watched it
collapse. Would it have been better if he> > >
had> > > > nipped it in the bud by raising rates more and
tightening margin> > > > requirements in 1997? I guess
that depends on if you got out at> > > the> > >
> top. If he had pulled a Volcker and tightened the screws,
the> > > Asian> > > > crisis, Russian crisis,
and LTCM could just as well have> > collapsed> > >
> the entire financial system. My only opinion is that he
should> > > have> > > > at least raised margin
requirements. And then there's that> > garbage> >
> > he lays out that he doesn't target the stock market.
Yeah> > right.> > > > Funds are at 1.75% right
now. Is the economy that bad right> > now?> > >
> Only because it was allowed to get out of control.> > >
>> > > >> > > >> > >
>> > > > --- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x..., "tradewynne" <<A
href="mailto:tradewynne@x";>tradewynne@x...> wrote:> > >
> > --- In realtraders@x...,
"bondo92677" <bruce.larson@x...>
wrote:> > > > >> > > > > > I don't
where his allegiances lay.> > > > >> > >
> > >>>Alan was a good friend of the> > > >
> > > > Clintons. He used to always sit next to Hillary
at> > public> > > > > > > >
ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against Al> >
> > because> > > > > he > > > feels his
tight policy lost him the election in 1992.> > > >
>> > > > > I guess I didn't understand.> >
> > >> > > > > > But he sure tightened the
screws> > > > > > in 88-90.> > > >
>> > > > > Rate cuts in 90-92 were too late>
> > > > > > to save Bush Snr> > > >
>> > > > > Again, I'm not clear. Are you saying he was
trying to screw Bush> > > > > Sr. or save him?>
> > > >> > > > > > He said the market was
"irrational exuberant" in 12/96. We> > > >
almost> > > > > > got back down there last month no
thanks to him.> > > > >> > > > >
You're saying his "12/96" speech caused the market to decline> >
from> > > > > 2000-2002?> > > >
>> > > > > I know a lot of folks are bitter about the
decline in the> > market,> > > > > and want to
blame someone, but I don't think you can have it> > both>
> > > > ways. If you blame him for the decline don't you have to
give> > him> > > > > credit for the greatest
bull market in history? I don't think> > he> > > >
> deserves either. The markets are going to do what they want,
all> > > > > the fed does is goose it here and there.
Check your own time> > > > > line as proof: look at a
chart after his 1996 speech; the NDX> > > > > was up
500%+ in three years.> > > > >> > > >
> BW> > > > >> > > > > >>
> > > > >> > > > > >> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@x...,
"tradewynne" <tradewynne@x...>
wrote:> > > > > > > Yeah, another left-winger Ford
and Reagan appointed?> > > > > > >> >
> > > > > <A
href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/bios/greenspan.htm";>http://www.federalreserve.gov/bios/greenspan.htm>
> > > > > >> > > > > > >>
> > > > > > --- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x..., "bondo92677" <<A
href="mailto:bruce.larson@x";>bruce.larson@x...>> > >
wrote:> > > > > > > > They said the same in fall
1998. Alan was a good friend> > of> > > >
the> > > > > > > > Clintons. He used to
always sit next to Hillary at> > public> > > >
> > > > ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge
against Al> > > > because> > > > > >
he> > > > > > > > feels his tight policy lost
him the election in 1992.> > > > Remember> > >
> > > Al> > > > > > > > raised rates up
to 11% in 1989. Rate cuts in 90-92 were> > > too>
> > > > late> > > > > > > to>
> > > > > > > save Bush Snr although they sure made
Clinton look> > good.> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > >> > > > >
> > >> > > > > > > > --- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x..., "Kent Rollins" <<A
href="mailto:kentr@x";>kentr@x...>> > wrote:> >
> > > > > > > Quite the contrary. The Fed will
avoid moving right> > > before> > > > >
an> > > > > > > > election> > >
> > > > > > unless things are really bad. If the
economy continues> > > to> > > > > > >
sputter> > > > > > > > along as> >
> > > > > > > it is doing now, there will be no change
in rates.> > > > > > > > >> > >
> > > > > > Kent> > > > > > >
> >> > > > > > > > >> > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----> > >
> > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <<A
href="mailto:prosys@x";>prosys@x...>> > > > > >
> > > To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x...>> > > >
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 11:29 AM>
> > > > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday Prognosis
of S&P> > > > > > > > >> > >
> > > > > >> > > > > > > >
> With the Bush administration, ANYTHING GOES RIGHT> >
NOW....> > > > > > > > > WAIT.....Doesn't the
FOMC meet BEFORE September 30th ?> > > > > > > >
> I think it's SEPTEMBER 24th.....just ONE WEEK> > >
> BEFORE.....HOW> > > > > > > >
CONVENIENT.> > > > > > > > > Hmmmmm.......I
wonder what will happen to S/T interest> > > > rates>
> > > > > > > then ?? (duh !)> > > >
> > > > > "FOMC lowers Fed Funds by a record by 75
basis> > > > > > points......stock> > >
> > > > > markets> > > > > > > >
> rise sharply.....mutual fund holders now happy> > > >
> campers......GOP> > > > > > > >
election> > > > > > > > > chances now
improved"> > > > > > > > >> > >
> > > > > > BTW: I just love to shake you guys
up...> > > > > > > > >> > > >
> > > > > > -----Original Message-----> > >
> > > > > > > From: Norman Winski
[mailto:nwinski@xxxx]> > > > > > > > > >
Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:15 AM> > > > > >
> > > > To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x...> > > > >
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of
S&P> > > > > > > > > >> >
> > > > > > > >> > > > > >
> > > > M Simms,> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > Hey,
maybe they have Arafat bidding up the market> > > with>
> > > > his> > > > > > > >
secret> > > > > > > > > > billionaire
dollar account? And the Bush> > > administration>
> > > is> > > > > > bad> > >
> > > > > > > mouthing the> > > > >
> > > > > Saudis so no one will suspect they are trading
for> > the> > > > CIA?> > > > >
> > > > >> > > > > > > > >
> Conspiringly,> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > Norman>
> > > > > > > > >> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----> > > >
> > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <<A
href="mailto:prosys@x";>prosys@x...>> > > > > >
> > > > To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x...>> > > >
> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:00
AM> > > > > > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT]
Thursday Prognosis of S&P> > > > > > > >
> >> > > > > > > > > >> >
> > > > > > > > > NYSE volume of 1.5 billion
today.....weak ?> > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > Also, let's
not forget the Sept 30th date in NEON> > > LITES> >
> > > > > hanging> > > > > > > >
in the> > > > > > > > > > white>
> > > > > > > > > > house......> >
> > > > > > > > > they gotta keep the market up
till then.....or else> > > > WHAM,> > > >
> > > > goodbye GOP in> > > > > > >
> > > > November.> > > > > > > >
> > >> > > > > > > > > > >
These fierce non-news-related afternoon rallies are> > > >
just> > > > > so> > > > > > >
> > > suspicious.....I> > > > > > > >
> > > wonder if Bush has the CIA hitting the BUY order> >
> > buttons> > > > > all> > > >
> > > > > > afternoon in> > > > > >
> > > > > the eminis.> > > > > > >
> > > >> > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > >
-----Original Message-----> > > > > > > > >
> > > From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxx]> > >
> > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 14,
2002 7:38 PM> > > > > > > > > > > >
To: realtraders@x...> > >
> > > > > > > > > Cc: <A
href="mailto:MedianLine@x";>MedianLine@x...> > > > >
> > > > > > > Subject: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of
S&P> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > > > > >> > >
> > > > > > > > > I know general TA consensus
says that we have> > > broken> > > > a>
> > > > > major> > > > > > > >
> > > > resistance and 947 or better is in sight
tomorrow.> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > > This may
be true but this rally could have also> > > been> >
> > > > fueled> > > > > > > > by
the> > > > > > > > > > > > absence
of major bad news and CEOs signing on the> > > > >
dotted> > > > > > > > line.Plus> >
> > > > > > > > > > coming off the heels of a
major decline never> > hurts.> > > > > >
> > > > > >> > > > > > > >
> > > > Tomorrow I believe that:> > > > >
> > > > > > >> > > > > > >
> > > > > 1. UAL will announce Bankruptcy plans> >
> > > > > > > > > >> > > >
> > > > > > > > 2. Major CEOs of certain firms will
not sign> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > > 3.
Companies will announce a need to redo back> > years> >
> > > > > > > > > >> > > >
> > > > > > > > 4. While we passed the early Aug.
high we are> > still> > > > > below>
> > > > > > > July highs> > > > >
> > > > > > >> > > > > > >
> > > > > 5. The 200 day moving average is a long way
off> > > > > > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > > > > > 6. 775.9 may have
been the low for this cycle but> > > > that> >
> > > > does> > > > > > > > not
mean> > > > > > > > > > > > 880 will
not be retested.> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > > We can
move higher but I think we will end lower.> > > It> >
> > > > would> > > > > > > > not
take> > > > > > > > > > > > much to
derail this uptrend which until now has> > > been> >
> > > > fueled> > > > > > > > by
weak> > > > > > > > > > > >
volume.> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > > This one
may have passed a "magic" number but> > that> > >
> does> > > > > > not> > > > >
> > > mean that> > > > > > > > >
> > > it "is" the magic number to climb aboard.> > >
> > > > > > > > >> > > > >
> > > > > > > Thoughts?> > > > >
> > > > > > >> > > > > > >
> > > > >> > > > > > > > >
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href="mailto:realtraders-unsubscribe@x";>realtraders-unsubscribe@x...>
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