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Hello Kent,
One thing about China I've been casually tracking--they have a very
fast growing AIDS problem that they work very hard at concealing.
Unchecked, that could put a damper on their growth even tho they have
a lot of bodies to throw at the problem.
Best regards,
Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
--
Friday, August 16, 2002, 3:03:13 AM, you wrote:
KR> We have nukes. We can't lose a conventional war against anyone. And soon
KR> we'll have SDI. Maybe not perfect, but if it can knock out 75% of the
KR> incoming nukes, getting 25% nuked is better than 100% nuked. We might not
KR> be able to win a conventional war against China in the sense that we could
KR> not occupy their country, but we cannot lose.
KR> Economic war is a different story. In a book I read a while back (I think
KR> it was "Accidental Empires" by Robert Cringely), the author points out
KR> research that demonstrates how forward progress is dependent on finding
KR> truly, truly great talent and giving them resources and pressing deadlines.
KR> We are talking people way out on the bell curve. And the author makes the
KR> simple observation that the number of these people a country has access to
KR> is simply a factor of that country's population. Like Dennis Miller said
KR> when China crossed the 1 billion mark, "It means that even if you're a
KR> one-in-a-million kind of guy, there's still a thousand other guys just like
KR> you."
KR> The Chinese (and Japanese) think a lot differently than we do. That will
KR> make things more diifficult for us Westerners. They have "spies" who live
KR> here now. They buy things in this country that it is illegal for China to
KR> import and FedEx them to China. Things that are relatively low-tech for us,
KR> but things that China won't be able to manufacture for another 10-15 years.
KR> That's their idea of spying...for now. Of course with Klinton, they got a
KR> better quality of stuff...one throat to choke and all...
KR> Our only hope? Thomas Friedman's observation in "The Lexus and The Olive
KR> Tree": no 2 nations with a McDonald's have ever gone to war with each other
KR> (the book was written before Klinton bombed Belgrade). Trade, trade, and
KR> more trade. But then of course that gets us back to the economic
KR> war...maybe we're just screwed. Maybe we should start bombing China with
KR> condoms.
KR> Kent
KR> ----- Original Message -----
KR> From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
KR> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
KR> Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 11:50 PM
KR> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Thursday Prognosis of S&P
KR> You say:
KR> Better take some Chinese lessons because they'll be running things
KR> soon.
KR> After over 200 years of enduring this "rotten" thing that we have in
KR> this country can we not expect to endure for another 200 years
KR> even though China has a lot more people.
KR> If it came to a real war we would probably lose but if it is only
KR> an economic war we will probably solve that problem in the
KR> same way that we solved the Japanese problem after WW2.
KR> Clyde
KR> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
KR> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
KR> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
KR> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
KR> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
KR> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
KR> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
KR> ----- Original Message -----
KR> From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
KR> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
KR> Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 10:39 PM
KR> Subject: [RT] Re: Thursday Prognosis of S&P
>> What would I do if I were Alan? I'd retire and ride off into that
>> big sunset. Got a nice pretty younger wife and can make tons of
>> money on the speech circuit.
>> Nothing you can do once the bubble bursts. Just gotta let it all
>> play out. The end result is always the same. After you party,
>> there's always a hangover. And we're in for a big one. Alan saw it
>> all happen in Japan 10 years earlier and just let it happen again.
>> You can keep the patient alive on life support like Japan with stupid
>> protectionist regulations, zero interest rates and fiscal stimulus
>> which only prolongs the problem by helping unproductive entities
>> remain in business or you can go cold turkey. I'm assuming we're
>> looking at 10-12 years of subpar growth. The alternative is
>> politically unacceptable. And of course Bush will try to get us
>> involved in every war imaginable to take our minds off the real
>> problem.
>> Better take some Chinese lessons because they'll be running things
>> soon.
>>
>>
>> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
>> > I know you "really have no opinion" .... but what would
>> > YOU do now?
>> >
>> > BW
>> >
>> >
>> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
>> > > I really have no opinion on either way. I read in several
>> > > publications during Dubya's campaign that Daddy Bush blamed
>> > > Greenspan's tight monetary policy for blowing his reelection.
>> > Daddy
>> > > Bush had the highest public approval rating immediately after the
>> > > Gulf War (2/91) and blowing the election was bigger than this
>> > market
>> > > reversal. I didn't make it up. Obviously Bush Snr believes
>> > > Greenspan took too long to loosen and the 91 recession/tepid
>> > recovery
>> > > of 92 hurt him. Gotta blame someone and Alan the easiest one to
>> > > point his finger at. I'm sure "read my lips" and Dan Quayle
>> didn't
>> > > help his chances but it reelections really do depend on the state
>> > of
>> > > the economy.
>> > > As far as Alan's loose rate experiment, its well known that Alan
>> > had
>> > > this pet theory of tech based productivity gains dampening
>> > > inflationary pressures. So in spite of strong (service)economy
>> > gains
>> > > in 1996-98, he held off from over tightening. In fact, I've
>> heard
>> > > that his 3/97 one time hike was done reluctantly at the
>> insistance
>> > of
>> > > the Fed Board. Its also said that Greenspan had a tacit
>> > > understanding with the Clinton administration (Rubin) that he
>> would
>> > > lay off tight monetary policy if they balanced the budget.
>> > Everyone
>> > > loves to blame Alan for creating the bubble although now its
>> clear
>> > it
>> > > was all based on false accounting, share buybacks, media hype and
>> > > greed. The earnings were never there. Of course, demographics
>> > > (boomers pouring their retirement money into stocks) and foreign
>> > > investment(strong dollar) had alot to do with it. But the fact
>> of
>> > > the matter is that Al simply sat on his hands while it all
>> spiraled
>> > > into a mania. He warned of it bubbling in 12/96, watched it take
>> > off
>> > > then smugly watched it collapse. Would it have been better if he
>> > had
>> > > nipped it in the bud by raising rates more and tightening margin
>> > > requirements in 1997? I guess that depends on if you got out at
>> > the
>> > > top. If he had pulled a Volcker and tightened the screws, the
>> > Asian
>> > > crisis, Russian crisis, and LTCM could just as well have
>> collapsed
>> > > the entire financial system. My only opinion is that he should
>> > have
>> > > at least raised margin requirements. And then there's that
>> garbage
>> > > he lays out that he doesn't target the stock market. Yeah
>> right.
>> > > Funds are at 1.75% right now. Is the economy that bad right
>> now?
>> > > Only because it was allowed to get out of control.
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
>> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
>> > > >
>> > > > > I don't where his allegiances lay.
>> > > >
>> > > > >>>Alan was a good friend of the
>> > > > > > > Clintons. He used to always sit next to Hillary at
>> public
>> > > > > > > ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against Al
>> > > because
>> > > > he > > > feels his tight policy lost him the election in 1992.
>> > > >
>> > > > I guess I didn't understand.
>> > > >
>> > > > > But he sure tightened the screws
>> > > > > in 88-90.
>> > > >
>> > > > Rate cuts in 90-92 were too late
>> > > > > > to save Bush Snr
>> > > >
>> > > > Again, I'm not clear. Are you saying he was trying to screw Bush
>> > > > Sr. or save him?
>> > > >
>> > > > > He said the market was "irrational exuberant" in 12/96. We
>> > > almost
>> > > > > got back down there last month no thanks to him.
>> > > >
>> > > > You're saying his "12/96" speech caused the market to decline
>> from
>> > > > 2000-2002?
>> > > >
>> > > > I know a lot of folks are bitter about the decline in the
>> market,
>> > > > and want to blame someone, but I don't think you can have it
>> both
>> > > > ways. If you blame him for the decline don't you have to give
>> him
>> > > > credit for the greatest bull market in history? I don't think
>> he
>> > > > deserves either. The markets are going to do what they want, all
>> > > > the fed does is goose it here and there. Check your own time
>> > > > line as proof: look at a chart after his 1996 speech; the NDX
>> > > > was up 500%+ in three years.
>> > > >
>> > > > BW
>> > > >
>> > > > >
>> > > > >
>> > > > >
>> > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
>> > > > > > Yeah, another left-winger Ford and Reagan appointed?
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > http://www.federalreserve.gov/bios/greenspan.htm
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx>
>> > wrote:
>> > > > > > > They said the same in fall 1998. Alan was a good friend
>> of
>> > > the
>> > > > > > > Clintons. He used to always sit next to Hillary at
>> public
>> > > > > > > ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against Al
>> > > because
>> > > > > he
>> > > > > > > feels his tight policy lost him the election in 1992.
>> > > Remember
>> > > > > Al
>> > > > > > > raised rates up to 11% in 1989. Rate cuts in 90-92 were
>> > too
>> > > > late
>> > > > > > to
>> > > > > > > save Bush Snr although they sure made Clinton look
>> good.
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxx>
>> wrote:
>> > > > > > > > Quite the contrary. The Fed will avoid moving right
>> > before
>> > > > an
>> > > > > > > election
>> > > > > > > > unless things are really bad. If the economy continues
>> > to
>> > > > > > sputter
>> > > > > > > along as
>> > > > > > > > it is doing now, there will be no change in rates.
>> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > Kent
>> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
>> > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
>> > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 11:29 AM
>> > > > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
>> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > With the Bush administration, ANYTHING GOES RIGHT
>> NOW....
>> > > > > > > > WAIT.....Doesn't the FOMC meet BEFORE September 30th ?
>> > > > > > > > I think it's SEPTEMBER 24th.....just ONE WEEK
>> > > BEFORE.....HOW
>> > > > > > > CONVENIENT.
>> > > > > > > > Hmmmmm.......I wonder what will happen to S/T interest
>> > > rates
>> > > > > > > then ?? (duh !)
>> > > > > > > > "FOMC lowers Fed Funds by a record by 75 basis
>> > > > > points......stock
>> > > > > > > markets
>> > > > > > > > rise sharply.....mutual fund holders now happy
>> > > > campers......GOP
>> > > > > > > election
>> > > > > > > > chances now improved"
>> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > BTW: I just love to shake you guys up...
>> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
>> > > > > > > > > From: Norman Winski [mailto:nwinski@x...]
>> > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:15 AM
>> > > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
>> > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > M Simms,
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > Hey, maybe they have Arafat bidding up the market
>> > with
>> > > > his
>> > > > > > > secret
>> > > > > > > > > billionaire dollar account? And the Bush
>> > administration
>> > > is
>> > > > > bad
>> > > > > > > > > mouthing the
>> > > > > > > > > Saudis so no one will suspect they are trading for
>> the
>> > > CIA?
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > Conspiringly,
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > Norman
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > > > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
>> > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
>> > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:00 AM
>> > > > > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > NYSE volume of 1.5 billion today.....weak ?
>> > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > Also, let's not forget the Sept 30th date in NEON
>> > LITES
>> > > > > > hanging
>> > > > > > > in the
>> > > > > > > > > white
>> > > > > > > > > > house......
>> > > > > > > > > > they gotta keep the market up till then.....or else
>> > > WHAM,
>> > > > > > > goodbye GOP in
>> > > > > > > > > > November.
>> > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > These fierce non-news-related afternoon rallies are
>> > > just
>> > > > so
>> > > > > > > > > suspicious.....I
>> > > > > > > > > > wonder if Bush has the CIA hitting the BUY order
>> > > buttons
>> > > > all
>> > > > > > > > > afternoon in
>> > > > > > > > > > the eminis.
>> > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
>> > > > > > > > > > > From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@x...]
>> > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 14, 2002 7:38 PM
>> > > > > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
>> > > > > > > > > > > Cc: MedianLine@xxxx
>> > > > > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > I know general TA consensus says that we have
>> > broken
>> > > a
>> > > > > major
>> > > > > > > > > > > resistance and 947 or better is in sight tomorrow.
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > This may be true but this rally could have also
>> > been
>> > > > > fueled
>> > > > > > > by the
>> > > > > > > > > > > absence of major bad news and CEOs signing on the
>> > > > dotted
>> > > > > > > line.Plus
>> > > > > > > > > > > coming off the heels of a major decline never
>> hurts.
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > Tomorrow I believe that:
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > 1. UAL will announce Bankruptcy plans
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > 2. Major CEOs of certain firms will not sign
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > 3. Companies will announce a need to redo back
>> years
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > 4. While we passed the early Aug. high we are
>> still
>> > > > below
>> > > > > > > July highs
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > 5. The 200 day moving average is a long way off
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > 6. 775.9 may have been the low for this cycle but
>> > > that
>> > > > > does
>> > > > > > > not mean
>> > > > > > > > > > > 880 will not be retested.
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > We can move higher but I think we will end lower.
>> > It
>> > > > > would
>> > > > > > > not take
>> > > > > > > > > > > much to derail this uptrend which until now has
>> > been
>> > > > > fueled
>> > > > > > > by weak
>> > > > > > > > > > > volume.
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > This one may have passed a "magic" number but
>> that
>> > > does
>> > > > > not
>> > > > > > > mean that
>> > > > > > > > > > > it "is" the magic number to climb aboard.
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > > Thoughts?
>> > > > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > > >
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