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You can't solve problems by exporting them. Part of Japans problem is
China and part of Taiwan's problem will soon be mainland China. Take a good
look around you. We no longer manufacture shoes, cloths, electronics many
auto parts. Look at the labels of what you buy and note where the food
comes from that you eat. Fruit , vegetables, fish, beef, lamb and soy
products are all being imported because it is cheaper then we can produce it
here. Take the semi conductor chip or ram. Taiwan can produce them for
about 2/3 of the cost in the US and China can produce them at 2/3 the cost
of Taiwan. Made in the U.S.A. now means made elsewhere and assembled here.
How many parts of your computer were manufactured in the US or your TV,
refrigerator, car, or any other item that you buy. They are even talking
about having our war planes, tanks and other military equipment manufactured
overseas. The balance of payments should tell you something. Then look at
the work force in the high tech industry. How many of them are from China,
Japan, India, Israel and other countries. So now we have two areas of
concern in the immigration area. High tech and field workers, but without
them where would we be? We do have a thriving wine industry though which
is rapidly being encroached upon. So when you talk about lessons, maybe we
should look around and take a few lessons from some other countries. Our
real estate bubble isn't as great as Japans was, but our stock market bubble
was and the cure isn't over yet. So while you ponder these things, sit
back with a good bottle of wine, California of course, and relax. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 8:50 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> You say:
>
> Better take some Chinese lessons because they'll be running things
> soon.
>
> After over 200 years of enduring this "rotten" thing that we have in
> this country can we not expect to endure for another 200 years
> even though China has a lot more people.
>
> If it came to a real war we would probably lose but if it is only
> an economic war we will probably solve that problem in the
> same way that we solved the Japanese problem after WW2.
>
> Clyde
>
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 10:39 PM
> Subject: [RT] Re: Thursday Prognosis of S&P
>
>
> > What would I do if I were Alan? I'd retire and ride off into that
> > big sunset. Got a nice pretty younger wife and can make tons of
> > money on the speech circuit.
> > Nothing you can do once the bubble bursts. Just gotta let it all
> > play out. The end result is always the same. After you party,
> > there's always a hangover. And we're in for a big one. Alan saw it
> > all happen in Japan 10 years earlier and just let it happen again.
> > You can keep the patient alive on life support like Japan with stupid
> > protectionist regulations, zero interest rates and fiscal stimulus
> > which only prolongs the problem by helping unproductive entities
> > remain in business or you can go cold turkey. I'm assuming we're
> > looking at 10-12 years of subpar growth. The alternative is
> > politically unacceptable. And of course Bush will try to get us
> > involved in every war imaginable to take our minds off the real
> > problem.
> > Better take some Chinese lessons because they'll be running things
> > soon.
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
> > > I know you "really have no opinion" .... but what would
> > > YOU do now?
> > >
> > > BW
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > I really have no opinion on either way. I read in several
> > > > publications during Dubya's campaign that Daddy Bush blamed
> > > > Greenspan's tight monetary policy for blowing his reelection.
> > > Daddy
> > > > Bush had the highest public approval rating immediately after the
> > > > Gulf War (2/91) and blowing the election was bigger than this
> > > market
> > > > reversal. I didn't make it up. Obviously Bush Snr believes
> > > > Greenspan took too long to loosen and the 91 recession/tepid
> > > recovery
> > > > of 92 hurt him. Gotta blame someone and Alan the easiest one to
> > > > point his finger at. I'm sure "read my lips" and Dan Quayle
> > didn't
> > > > help his chances but it reelections really do depend on the state
> > > of
> > > > the economy.
> > > > As far as Alan's loose rate experiment, its well known that Alan
> > > had
> > > > this pet theory of tech based productivity gains dampening
> > > > inflationary pressures. So in spite of strong (service)economy
> > > gains
> > > > in 1996-98, he held off from over tightening. In fact, I've
> > heard
> > > > that his 3/97 one time hike was done reluctantly at the
> > insistance
> > > of
> > > > the Fed Board. Its also said that Greenspan had a tacit
> > > > understanding with the Clinton administration (Rubin) that he
> > would
> > > > lay off tight monetary policy if they balanced the budget.
> > > Everyone
> > > > loves to blame Alan for creating the bubble although now its
> > clear
> > > it
> > > > was all based on false accounting, share buybacks, media hype and
> > > > greed. The earnings were never there. Of course, demographics
> > > > (boomers pouring their retirement money into stocks) and foreign
> > > > investment(strong dollar) had alot to do with it. But the fact
> > of
> > > > the matter is that Al simply sat on his hands while it all
> > spiraled
> > > > into a mania. He warned of it bubbling in 12/96, watched it take
> > > off
> > > > then smugly watched it collapse. Would it have been better if he
> > > had
> > > > nipped it in the bud by raising rates more and tightening margin
> > > > requirements in 1997? I guess that depends on if you got out at
> > > the
> > > > top. If he had pulled a Volcker and tightened the screws, the
> > > Asian
> > > > crisis, Russian crisis, and LTCM could just as well have
> > collapsed
> > > > the entire financial system. My only opinion is that he should
> > > have
> > > > at least raised margin requirements. And then there's that
> > garbage
> > > > he lays out that he doesn't target the stock market. Yeah
> > right.
> > > > Funds are at 1.75% right now. Is the economy that bad right
> > now?
> > > > Only because it was allowed to get out of control.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > I don't where his allegiances lay.
> > > > >
> > > > > >>>Alan was a good friend of the
> > > > > > > > Clintons. He used to always sit next to Hillary at
> > public
> > > > > > > > ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against Al
> > > > because
> > > > > he > > > feels his tight policy lost him the election in 1992.
> > > > >
> > > > > I guess I didn't understand.
> > > > >
> > > > > > But he sure tightened the screws
> > > > > > in 88-90.
> > > > >
> > > > > Rate cuts in 90-92 were too late
> > > > > > > to save Bush Snr
> > > > >
> > > > > Again, I'm not clear. Are you saying he was trying to screw Bush
> > > > > Sr. or save him?
> > > > >
> > > > > > He said the market was "irrational exuberant" in 12/96. We
> > > > almost
> > > > > > got back down there last month no thanks to him.
> > > > >
> > > > > You're saying his "12/96" speech caused the market to decline
> > from
> > > > > 2000-2002?
> > > > >
> > > > > I know a lot of folks are bitter about the decline in the
> > market,
> > > > > and want to blame someone, but I don't think you can have it
> > both
> > > > > ways. If you blame him for the decline don't you have to give
> > him
> > > > > credit for the greatest bull market in history? I don't think
> > he
> > > > > deserves either. The markets are going to do what they want, all
> > > > > the fed does is goose it here and there. Check your own time
> > > > > line as proof: look at a chart after his 1996 speech; the NDX
> > > > > was up 500%+ in three years.
> > > > >
> > > > > BW
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > > Yeah, another left-winger Ford and Reagan appointed?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > http://www.federalreserve.gov/bios/greenspan.htm
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > They said the same in fall 1998. Alan was a good friend
> > of
> > > > the
> > > > > > > > Clintons. He used to always sit next to Hillary at
> > public
> > > > > > > > ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against Al
> > > > because
> > > > > > he
> > > > > > > > feels his tight policy lost him the election in 1992.
> > > > Remember
> > > > > > Al
> > > > > > > > raised rates up to 11% in 1989. Rate cuts in 90-92 were
> > > too
> > > > > late
> > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > save Bush Snr although they sure made Clinton look
> > good.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > > > > > > Quite the contrary. The Fed will avoid moving right
> > > before
> > > > > an
> > > > > > > > election
> > > > > > > > > unless things are really bad. If the economy continues
> > > to
> > > > > > > sputter
> > > > > > > > along as
> > > > > > > > > it is doing now, there will be no change in rates.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Kent
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 11:29 AM
> > > > > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > With the Bush administration, ANYTHING GOES RIGHT
> > NOW....
> > > > > > > > > WAIT.....Doesn't the FOMC meet BEFORE September 30th ?
> > > > > > > > > I think it's SEPTEMBER 24th.....just ONE WEEK
> > > > BEFORE.....HOW
> > > > > > > > CONVENIENT.
> > > > > > > > > Hmmmmm.......I wonder what will happen to S/T interest
> > > > rates
> > > > > > > > then ?? (duh !)
> > > > > > > > > "FOMC lowers Fed Funds by a record by 75 basis
> > > > > > points......stock
> > > > > > > > markets
> > > > > > > > > rise sharply.....mutual fund holders now happy
> > > > > campers......GOP
> > > > > > > > election
> > > > > > > > > chances now improved"
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > BTW: I just love to shake you guys up...
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > > > > From: Norman Winski [mailto:nwinski@x...]
> > > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:15 AM
> > > > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > M Simms,
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Hey, maybe they have Arafat bidding up the market
> > > with
> > > > > his
> > > > > > > > secret
> > > > > > > > > > billionaire dollar account? And the Bush
> > > administration
> > > > is
> > > > > > bad
> > > > > > > > > > mouthing the
> > > > > > > > > > Saudis so no one will suspect they are trading for
> > the
> > > > CIA?
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Conspiringly,
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Norman
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:00 AM
> > > > > > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > NYSE volume of 1.5 billion today.....weak ?
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > Also, let's not forget the Sept 30th date in NEON
> > > LITES
> > > > > > > hanging
> > > > > > > > in the
> > > > > > > > > > white
> > > > > > > > > > > house......
> > > > > > > > > > > they gotta keep the market up till then.....or else
> > > > WHAM,
> > > > > > > > goodbye GOP in
> > > > > > > > > > > November.
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > These fierce non-news-related afternoon rallies are
> > > > just
> > > > > so
> > > > > > > > > > suspicious.....I
> > > > > > > > > > > wonder if Bush has the CIA hitting the BUY order
> > > > buttons
> > > > > all
> > > > > > > > > > afternoon in
> > > > > > > > > > > the eminis.
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > > > > > > From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@x...]
> > > > > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 14, 2002 7:38 PM
> > > > > > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > > > > > > > Cc: MedianLine@xxxx
> > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > I know general TA consensus says that we have
> > > broken
> > > > a
> > > > > > major
> > > > > > > > > > > > resistance and 947 or better is in sight tomorrow.
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > This may be true but this rally could have also
> > > been
> > > > > > fueled
> > > > > > > > by the
> > > > > > > > > > > > absence of major bad news and CEOs signing on the
> > > > > dotted
> > > > > > > > line.Plus
> > > > > > > > > > > > coming off the heels of a major decline never
> > hurts.
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > Tomorrow I believe that:
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > 1. UAL will announce Bankruptcy plans
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > 2. Major CEOs of certain firms will not sign
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > 3. Companies will announce a need to redo back
> > years
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > 4. While we passed the early Aug. high we are
> > still
> > > > > below
> > > > > > > > July highs
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > 5. The 200 day moving average is a long way off
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > 6. 775.9 may have been the low for this cycle but
> > > > that
> > > > > > does
> > > > > > > > not mean
> > > > > > > > > > > > 880 will not be retested.
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > We can move higher but I think we will end lower.
> > > It
> > > > > > would
> > > > > > > > not take
> > > > > > > > > > > > much to derail this uptrend which until now has
> > > been
> > > > > > fueled
> > > > > > > > by weak
> > > > > > > > > > > > volume.
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > This one may have passed a "magic" number but
> > that
> > > > does
> > > > > > not
> > > > > > > > mean that
> > > > > > > > > > > > it "is" the magic number to climb aboard.
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > > Thoughts?
> > > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > >
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