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I know you "really have no opinion" .... but what would
YOU do now?
BW
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
> I really have no opinion on either way. I read in several
> publications during Dubya's campaign that Daddy Bush blamed
> Greenspan's tight monetary policy for blowing his reelection.
Daddy
> Bush had the highest public approval rating immediately after the
> Gulf War (2/91) and blowing the election was bigger than this
market
> reversal. I didn't make it up. Obviously Bush Snr believes
> Greenspan took too long to loosen and the 91 recession/tepid
recovery
> of 92 hurt him. Gotta blame someone and Alan the easiest one to
> point his finger at. I'm sure "read my lips" and Dan Quayle didn't
> help his chances but it reelections really do depend on the state
of
> the economy.
> As far as Alan's loose rate experiment, its well known that Alan
had
> this pet theory of tech based productivity gains dampening
> inflationary pressures. So in spite of strong (service)economy
gains
> in 1996-98, he held off from over tightening. In fact, I've heard
> that his 3/97 one time hike was done reluctantly at the insistance
of
> the Fed Board. Its also said that Greenspan had a tacit
> understanding with the Clinton administration (Rubin) that he would
> lay off tight monetary policy if they balanced the budget.
Everyone
> loves to blame Alan for creating the bubble although now its clear
it
> was all based on false accounting, share buybacks, media hype and
> greed. The earnings were never there. Of course, demographics
> (boomers pouring their retirement money into stocks) and foreign
> investment(strong dollar) had alot to do with it. But the fact of
> the matter is that Al simply sat on his hands while it all spiraled
> into a mania. He warned of it bubbling in 12/96, watched it take
off
> then smugly watched it collapse. Would it have been better if he
had
> nipped it in the bud by raising rates more and tightening margin
> requirements in 1997? I guess that depends on if you got out at
the
> top. If he had pulled a Volcker and tightened the screws, the
Asian
> crisis, Russian crisis, and LTCM could just as well have collapsed
> the entire financial system. My only opinion is that he should
have
> at least raised margin requirements. And then there's that garbage
> he lays out that he doesn't target the stock market. Yeah right.
> Funds are at 1.75% right now. Is the economy that bad right now?
> Only because it was allowed to get out of control.
>
>
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
> >
> > > I don't where his allegiances lay.
> >
> > >>>Alan was a good friend of the
> > > > > Clintons. He used to always sit next to Hillary at public
> > > > > ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against Al
> because
> > he > > > feels his tight policy lost him the election in 1992.
> >
> > I guess I didn't understand.
> >
> > > But he sure tightened the screws
> > > in 88-90.
> >
> > Rate cuts in 90-92 were too late
> > > > to save Bush Snr
> >
> > Again, I'm not clear. Are you saying he was trying to screw Bush
> > Sr. or save him?
> >
> > > He said the market was "irrational exuberant" in 12/96. We
> almost
> > > got back down there last month no thanks to him.
> >
> > You're saying his "12/96" speech caused the market to decline from
> > 2000-2002?
> >
> > I know a lot of folks are bitter about the decline in the market,
> > and want to blame someone, but I don't think you can have it both
> > ways. If you blame him for the decline don't you have to give him
> > credit for the greatest bull market in history? I don't think he
> > deserves either. The markets are going to do what they want, all
> > the fed does is goose it here and there. Check your own time
> > line as proof: look at a chart after his 1996 speech; the NDX
> > was up 500%+ in three years.
> >
> > BW
> >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Yeah, another left-winger Ford and Reagan appointed?
> > > >
> > > > http://www.federalreserve.gov/bios/greenspan.htm
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > > They said the same in fall 1998. Alan was a good friend of
> the
> > > > > Clintons. He used to always sit next to Hillary at public
> > > > > ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against Al
> because
> > > he
> > > > > feels his tight policy lost him the election in 1992.
> Remember
> > > Al
> > > > > raised rates up to 11% in 1989. Rate cuts in 90-92 were
too
> > late
> > > > to
> > > > > save Bush Snr although they sure made Clinton look good.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > Quite the contrary. The Fed will avoid moving right
before
> > an
> > > > > election
> > > > > > unless things are really bad. If the economy continues
to
> > > > sputter
> > > > > along as
> > > > > > it is doing now, there will be no change in rates.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Kent
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 11:29 AM
> > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > With the Bush administration, ANYTHING GOES RIGHT NOW....
> > > > > > WAIT.....Doesn't the FOMC meet BEFORE September 30th ?
> > > > > > I think it's SEPTEMBER 24th.....just ONE WEEK
> BEFORE.....HOW
> > > > > CONVENIENT.
> > > > > > Hmmmmm.......I wonder what will happen to S/T interest
> rates
> > > > > then ?? (duh !)
> > > > > > "FOMC lowers Fed Funds by a record by 75 basis
> > > points......stock
> > > > > markets
> > > > > > rise sharply.....mutual fund holders now happy
> > campers......GOP
> > > > > election
> > > > > > chances now improved"
> > > > > >
> > > > > > BTW: I just love to shake you guys up...
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > From: Norman Winski [mailto:nwinski@x...]
> > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:15 AM
> > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > M Simms,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Hey, maybe they have Arafat bidding up the market
with
> > his
> > > > > secret
> > > > > > > billionaire dollar account? And the Bush
administration
> is
> > > bad
> > > > > > > mouthing the
> > > > > > > Saudis so no one will suspect they are trading for the
> CIA?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Conspiringly,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Norman
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:00 AM
> > > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > NYSE volume of 1.5 billion today.....weak ?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Also, let's not forget the Sept 30th date in NEON
LITES
> > > > hanging
> > > > > in the
> > > > > > > white
> > > > > > > > house......
> > > > > > > > they gotta keep the market up till then.....or else
> WHAM,
> > > > > goodbye GOP in
> > > > > > > > November.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > These fierce non-news-related afternoon rallies are
> just
> > so
> > > > > > > suspicious.....I
> > > > > > > > wonder if Bush has the CIA hitting the BUY order
> buttons
> > all
> > > > > > > afternoon in
> > > > > > > > the eminis.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > > > From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@x...]
> > > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 14, 2002 7:38 PM
> > > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > > > > Cc: MedianLine@xxxx
> > > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > I know general TA consensus says that we have
broken
> a
> > > major
> > > > > > > > > resistance and 947 or better is in sight tomorrow.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > This may be true but this rally could have also
been
> > > fueled
> > > > > by the
> > > > > > > > > absence of major bad news and CEOs signing on the
> > dotted
> > > > > line.Plus
> > > > > > > > > coming off the heels of a major decline never hurts.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Tomorrow I believe that:
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > 1. UAL will announce Bankruptcy plans
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > 2. Major CEOs of certain firms will not sign
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > 3. Companies will announce a need to redo back years
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > 4. While we passed the early Aug. high we are still
> > below
> > > > > July highs
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > 5. The 200 day moving average is a long way off
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > 6. 775.9 may have been the low for this cycle but
> that
> > > does
> > > > > not mean
> > > > > > > > > 880 will not be retested.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > We can move higher but I think we will end lower.
It
> > > would
> > > > > not take
> > > > > > > > > much to derail this uptrend which until now has
been
> > > fueled
> > > > > by weak
> > > > > > > > > volume.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > This one may have passed a "magic" number but that
> does
> > > not
> > > > > mean that
> > > > > > > > > it "is" the magic number to climb aboard.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Thoughts?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
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