[RT] A Contrarian View

[Ralph Volpe <rjv@xxxxxxxxxx>]

I'm posting a comment that I just found on a chat board. What's interesting
is that the person being quoted (Tom Thurlow, manger of the Thurlow Growth
Fund) sees hope at this juncture in the market based on all the negativism.
He's looking at it from a contrarian view. However, Tom would be even more
convinced of a good pop if he ever heard all the negativism expressed by
RT posters. Dorothy, this isn't attacking, but you're key to my contrarian
view. I haven't seen many brokers that were ever right, and you're the
most negative poster. I'm beginning to think that you're scaring everyone
to sell while you're buying. Fess up, is that what you're doing?  
;-)
As I said in a previous post in which I attached a NASD chart, anything
lower from here and the bottom will fall out. Do you think the Administration
and the Feds will allow that? They'll be flooding the capital markets with
available cash to stimulate the markets. But, as always, well see.
Ralph
Here's the comment.
Signs of hope
  As the markets have tumbled in recent weeks, technical indicators
have become increasingly  positive, said Thurlow, a disciple of both
fundamental and technical research.
  The put-to-call ratio is at 1.2, which means many more investors
are buying puts than calls, betting that markets will fall further.
  "As a contrarian indicator, that's extremely bullish," Thurlow
said. "I couldn't find any instance of the ratio ever being that high."
  The Trin, or Arms Index -- a measure of up volume vs. down
volume -- also shows extreme pessimism, he said. And the VIX, which measures
volatility, is approaching the highs it set in August 1998, just before
the market bottomed.
  "There's a very good chance we just hit the bottom on Friday,"
Thurlow said.
  Possibly holding the market back is its historically high
valuation, he cautioned. Even after the recent sell-off, the S&P 500
trades at 21 times earnings, compared with a long-term average of 15.
--
Ralph           =>       
E-mail   =>  rjv@xxxxxxxxxx
 






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