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Norman, I really enjoy Dorothy's view and I do listen to what she says.
(Do you hear that Dorothy?) Like you, I should have heeded the yelps of
doom sooner, but I think the WTC event really tipped the scale in favor
of the doom sayers. This type of event is really unprecedented and unpredictable.
Along these lines, I recently checked the drop in 1991 when Iraq invaded
Kuwait: that drop was about 17%. If you check this past drop, it's about
the same percentage. One thing that may really tip this market in favor
of the bulls is a quick resolution to either the capture or killing of
bin Laden. If we bear minimal losses, I think this market will scream
higher. As for getting bin Laden, I think that's imminent with the
vast buildup of forces in the area and the close cooperation with
the Russians. Last I heard, there are over 650 aircraft and 3500 Tomahawk
missiles heading for the Middle East, which is a much larger arsenal that
what was assembled to extract Iraq for Kuwait.
By the way, here's the record for Thurlow Growth.
Thurlow Growth (THRGX: news, chart, profile) is up 0.8 percent in
the past four weeks, one of only two growth funds in positive territory,
according to fund tracker Lipper Inc. That's a far cry from the 213 percent
annual return Thurlow posted in 1999 with heavy bets on technology.
The $3 million fund was still 100 percent invested in stocks
in April. Thurlow began selling in June, and was 50 percent in cash by
mid-July. The fund has been more than 95 percent in cash since early August,
when it began to look like the economy would turn lower.
Ralph
Norman Winski wrote:
Ralph,
All I know is that I resisted Dorothy's bearish views for several months
and missed a great opportunity to go short. However, I avoided going long
because I respect Dorothy's analysis and wasn't convinced about the upside.
One of the things one learns on the trading floor is to not only chart
markets but also chart people. Currently Dorothy has been hot hot
hot and is on a winning trend. Until I start to see proof to the contrary,
I woudln't want to fade her. Let the trend be your friend.
Speaking of trend, what is Tom Thurlow's track record for the past few
months or year? Did he go short circa May 22? Have you tracked
him for long? Did you take into account that most fund managers have
a bullish bias because they are forced to make their living by being long
and then must try to justify why they are losing their clients money? Ever
notice how many fund managers come on CNBC and repeatedly say to buy buy
buy all the way down? What do the sheep being led to slaughter on
Wall Street say? Baaauuuuuuy Baaaauuuuuy Baaauuuuuy!
You may be right about the market getting close to a low. Perhaps we have
already seen the low. However, I don't understand you tossing Dorothy overboard
on a whim when we know she has been riight because the first mutual fund
manager you find in a chat room convinces you otherwise. Can you explain
this? Thanks,
Norman Winski Best
Wishes,
Norman
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