[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

Re: [RT] A Contrarian View



PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links


Ralph:  That's a hoot...  maybe I 
should quote IRA;  I let the charts tell me and I act.. Ask Norman.. 
If I'm your countrary indicator you've been wrong since the May 
top.....No I am not buying and have been in cash/short/hedged for months... 

Best,  Dorothy
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
  Ralph Volpe 
  To: <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Monday, September 24, 2001 10:43 
  PM
  Subject: [RT] A Contrarian View
  I'm posting a comment that I just found on a chat board. What's 
  interesting is that the person being quoted (Tom Thurlow, manger of the 
  Thurlow Growth Fund) sees hope at this juncture in the market based on all the 
  negativism. He's looking at it from a contrarian view. However, Tom would be 
  even more convinced of a good pop if he ever heard all the negativism 
  expressed by RT posters. Dorothy, this isn't attacking, but you're key to my 
  contrarian view. I haven't seen many brokers that were ever right, and you're 
  the most negative poster. I'm beginning to think that you're scaring everyone 
  to sell while you're buying. Fess up, is that what you're doing?   
  ;-) 
  As I said in a previous post in which I attached a NASD chart, anything 
  lower from here and the bottom will fall out. Do you think the Administration 
  and the Feds will allow that? They'll be flooding the capital markets with 
  available cash to stimulate the markets. But, as always, well see. 
  Ralph 
  Here's the comment. 
  Signs of hope 
    As the markets have tumbled in recent weeks, technical indicators 
  have become increasingly  positive, said Thurlow, a disciple of both 
  fundamental and technical research. 
    The put-to-call ratio is at 1.2, which means many more investors 
  are buying puts than calls, betting that markets will fall further. 

    "As a contrarian indicator, that's extremely bullish," Thurlow 
  said. "I couldn't find any instance of the ratio ever being that 
  high." 
    The Trin, or Arms Index -- a measure of up volume vs. down volume 
  -- also shows extreme pessimism, he said. And the VIX, which measures 
  volatility, is approaching the highs it set in August 1998, just before the 
  market bottomed. 
    "There's a very good chance we just hit the bottom on Friday," 
  Thurlow said. 
    Possibly holding the market back is its historically high 
  valuation, he cautioned. Even after the recent sell-off, the S&P 500 
  trades at 21 times earnings, compared with a long-term average of 15. 
  -- Ralph           
  =>        E-mail   =>  
  rjv@xxxxxxxxxx   To 
  unsubscribe from this group, send an email 
  to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour 
  use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A 
  href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service. 
  






Yahoo! Groups Sponsor


<font face=arial
size=-2>ADVERTISEMENT





















To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx





Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.