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Ralph: The downside targets were given
long before 9-11 .... I'm more of a position trader as a broker it is
difficult to keep clients out of market and getting slaughtered on counter trend
rallies except for very few nimble ones.... so I'm not going to go
with a counter trend move like today ... My style would be to add to
shorts on it once I'm convinced it's through vs getting too cute with counter
trend... I think after Oct 98 lows are tested or taken out then a rally off of
that low will have more legs than this one........ There are many of you
out there that will be more nimble to trade counter trend than I am.. ie
Slawek... he can swing both ways.. hee hee better than I do..... soo..
we each have our strong and weak points... and hopefully learn from each
other... My observations are that public retail investor has not given up
yet. I can't tell you how many clients I have told no to.. who wanted to
buy or cover shorts recently..... I do believe it has been mainly foreign
investors and hedge funds, institutions who have recently sold. The US$ is
getting close for a rally so I would guess once a low is in that the DJIA could
see 1700+ point rally..... I just don't think we are there yet...
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Ralph Volpe
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, September 24, 2001 11:54
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] A Contrarian View
Norman, I really enjoy Dorothy's view and I do listen to what
she says. (Do you hear that Dorothy?) Like you, I should have heeded the yelps
of doom sooner, but I think the WTC event really tipped the scale in favor of
the doom sayers. This type of event is really unprecedented and unpredictable.
Along these lines, I recently checked the drop in 1991 when Iraq invaded
Kuwait: that drop was about 17%. If you check this past drop, it's about the
same percentage. One thing that may really tip this market in favor of the
bulls is a quick resolution to either the capture or killing of bin Laden. If
we bear minimal losses, I think this market will scream higher. As for
getting bin Laden, I think that's imminent with the vast buildup of
forces in the area and the close cooperation with the Russians. Last I
heard, there are over 650 aircraft and 3500 Tomahawk missiles heading for the
Middle East, which is a much larger arsenal that what was assembled to extract
Iraq for Kuwait.
By the way, here's the record for Thurlow Growth.
Thurlow Growth (THRGX: news, chart, profile) is up 0.8 percent in the
past four weeks, one of only two growth funds in positive territory, according
to fund tracker Lipper Inc. That's a far cry from the 213 percent annual
return Thurlow posted in 1999 with heavy bets on technology.
The $3 million fund was still 100 percent invested in stocks in
April. Thurlow began selling in June, and was 50 percent in cash by mid-July.
The fund has been more than 95 percent in cash since early August, when it
began to look like the economy would turn lower.
Ralph
Norman Winski wrote:
Ralph, <FONT
face=Arial> All I know is that I resisted
Dorothy's bearish views for several months and missed a great opportunity to
go short. However, I avoided going long because I respect Dorothy's analysis
and wasn't convinced about the upside. One of the things one learns on
the trading floor is to not only chart markets but also chart people.
Currently Dorothy has been hot hot hot and is on a winning trend. Until I
start to see proof to the contrary, I woudln't want to fade her. Let the
trend be your friend. <FONT
size=-1> Speaking of trend, what is Tom Thurlow's track record
for the past few months or year? Did he go short circa May 22?
Have you tracked him for long? Did you take into account that most
fund managers have a bullish bias because they are forced to make their
living by being long and then must try to justify why they are losing their
clients money? Ever notice how many fund managers come on CNBC and
repeatedly say to buy buy buy all the way down? What do the sheep
being led to slaughter on Wall Street say? Baaauuuuuuy Baaaauuuuuy
Baaauuuuuy!
You may be right about the market getting close to a low. Perhaps we have
already seen the low. However, I don't understand you tossing Dorothy
overboard on a whim when we know she has been riight because the first
mutual fund manager you find in a chat room convinces you otherwise. Can you
explain this? <FONT
size=-1>Thanks,
Norman
Winski Best
Wishes,
NormanTo
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