|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Ralph,
All I know is that I resisted
Dorothy's bearish views for several months and missed a great opportunity to go
short. However, I avoided going long because I respect Dorothy's analysis
and wasn't convinced about the upside. One of the things one learns on the
trading floor is to not only chart markets but also chart people.
Currently Dorothy has been hot hot hot and is on a winning trend. Until I start
to see proof to the contrary, I woudln't want to fade her. <FONT
face=Arial size=2>Let the trend be your friend.
Speaking of trend, what is Tom
Thurlow's track record for the past few months or year? Did he go short
circa May 22? Have you tracked him for long? Did you take into
account that most fund managers have a bullish bias because they are forced to
make their living by being long and then must try to justify why they are losing
their clients money? Ever notice how many fund managers come on CNBC and
repeatedly say to buy buy buy all the way down? What do the sheep being
led to slaughter on Wall Street say? Baaauuuuuuy Baaaauuuuuy
Baaauuuuuy!
You may be right about the market
getting close to a low. Perhaps we have already seen the low. However, I don't
understand you tossing Dorothy overboard on a whim when we know she has been
riight because the first mutual fund manager you find in a chat room
convinces you otherwise. Can you explain
this?
Thanks,Norman Winski
Best Wishes,Norman
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Ralph Volpe
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, September 24, 2001 10:43
PM
Subject: [RT] A Contrarian View
I'm posting a comment that I just found on a chat board. What's
interesting is that the person being quoted (Tom Thurlow, manger of the
Thurlow Growth Fund) sees hope at this juncture in the market based on all the
negativism. He's looking at it from a contrarian view. However, Tom would be
even more convinced of a good pop if he ever heard all the negativism
expressed by RT posters. Dorothy, this isn't attacking, but you're key to my
contrarian view. I haven't seen many brokers that were ever right, and you're
the most negative poster. I'm beginning to think that you're scaring everyone
to sell while you're buying. Fess up, is that what you're doing?
;-)
As I said in a previous post in which I attached a NASD chart, anything
lower from here and the bottom will fall out. Do you think the Administration
and the Feds will allow that? They'll be flooding the capital markets with
available cash to stimulate the markets. But, as always, well see.
Ralph
Here's the comment.
Signs of hope
As the markets have tumbled in recent weeks, technical indicators
have become increasingly positive, said Thurlow, a disciple of both
fundamental and technical research.
The put-to-call ratio is at 1.2, which means many more investors
are buying puts than calls, betting that markets will fall further.
"As a contrarian indicator, that's extremely bullish," Thurlow
said. "I couldn't find any instance of the ratio ever being that
high."
The Trin, or Arms Index -- a measure of up volume vs. down volume
-- also shows extreme pessimism, he said. And the VIX, which measures
volatility, is approaching the highs it set in August 1998, just before the
market bottomed.
"There's a very good chance we just hit the bottom on Friday,"
Thurlow said.
Possibly holding the market back is its historically high
valuation, he cautioned. Even after the recent sell-off, the S&P 500
trades at 21 times earnings, compared with a long-term average of 15.
-- Ralph
=> E-mail =>
rjv@xxxxxxxxxx To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
<font face=arial
size=-2>ADVERTISEMENT
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
|