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Steve,
I haven't followed the TradingMarkets futures commentary to this point,
but was wondering whether it is considered accurate.
Any opinion on the appended?
Bob
----
CORN
OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:21 AM: CORN +0. Key technical support held this week
and the if dry trend in southeast is confirmed on Monday morning weather
forecast, another round of buying looks likely. PRICE OUTLOOK: December
corn closed higher on the day and above the opening yesterday but the close
was 4 cents off the highs which is seen as disappointing to many bulls.
After short consolidation, look for more up next week.
WHEAT
OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:21 AM: WHEAT +1. The wheat market collapsed yesterday
under the weight of wheat/corn spread liquidation. As wheat is approaching
harvest and corn is approaching the most uncertain period of the year in
June, seasonal spreaders are taking profits on these spreads and the rally
in corn yesterday prompted some panic liquidation of these positions. While
the longer-term fundamentals look positive, traders are concerned that
harvest pressure are just around the corn and long liquidation is
intensifying this week. PRICE OUTLOOK: September wheat needs a close back
over 284 1/2 or risk additional liquidation to next support at 277.
---
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
Sent: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 7:25 PM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
Walter,
It's always fun to catch a top. Momentum oscillators can be stunningly
accurate or incredibly early and therefore, very frustrating. There was a
time, early in this trade, that the funds were long 80,000 corn and still
short 10,000 wheat. At the time, I thought that maybe the funds were about
at their risk capacity (for exposure to one single commodity). Sometimes
the fund movement reminds me of "bullish consensus": If 90% of the people
surveyed say that corn is going up, no one is left to buy. If the funds
already own 80,000 - 90,000 contracts (I think a record for corn), chances
are (and here is where this "thinking part" gets dangerous) that they will
liquidate, instead of build a larger position. Whatever is going on, the
momentum oscillator is diving south again. The Bollinger Momentum
Oscillator ("BB Thingy") provided two days to sell into it's overbought
condition. The funds are clumsy pests that cough up "chucks" of supply and
demand. Sometimes, you can get "slobbered" on even standing on the edge of
the action. It's always a thrill to witness the "group power" when they
unwind a position. How about this one: we're spread: short wheat/long
oats. This not a spread position ... but, the outright mechanical approach
has created the artificial spread. At least it's working.
Take care...always fun(z),
Steve Karnish
Cedar Creek Trading
http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
----- Original Message -----
From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 4:50 PM
Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
> Hi Steve
>
> Gee ... I was just reading about your W/C spread today on the Bridge
reports
> <G>
>
> "... Much of the pressure at
> the Chicago Board of Trade came as a number of large commodity fund and
> commercial firms were said to be taking profits on long wheat/short corn
> spread
> positions. Traders said the spreads had been technically overbought and
> noted
> that it was difficult for wheat to gain on corn, heading into the teeth of
> the
> U.S. winter wheat harvest in June. ...
>
> Unwinding of long
> wheat/short corn spread positions then helped keep wheat near session lows
> despite a late recovery in corn and soybeans.
> O'Connor Grain sold 500 lots of Jly, Prudential Securities sold 800
Jly
> and
> ED&F Man sold 400 Dec. Cargill Investor Services sold 500 Jly and bought
400
> Jly. FIMAT bought 500 Jly. ...
>
> ... The Jly wheat/corn spread closed at 41 3/4c, down 4 1/4c on the day.
The
> spread had risen from 19 1/2c on May 2 to 46c as of Tuesday's close. ..."
>
> I checked out your funds question from earlier in the week. What a mess
...
> I guess those wheat longs are bound and determined to stand under the
> corn/soy waterfall. <G> Should be easy money for you and your clients.
>
> Best regards
>
> Walter
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: "RealTraders Discussion Group" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>;
> <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 1:39 PM
> Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
>
>
> | Walter,
> |
> | Thought I'd tell you what I was "thinking" about the July Wheat/Corn
> spread
> | we discussed during the third week in April. As you know, I seldom
trade
> | spreads, but found this "feed spread" very attractive. I was able to
put
> on
> | these positions on at under 28. This morning I exited all positions at
46
> | or better.
> |
> | I know this technical approach is not for everyone...but consider that
> | momentum oscillators can do a nice job of tracking "spreads". You can
> enter
> | and exit positions after penetrations of zero and 100; wait until the
> | indicator reverses below and above these levels; or devise your own
> | comfortable strategy (even use stops, gasp).
> |
> | Steve Karnish
> | Cedar Creek Trading
> | http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> | ----- Original Message -----
> | From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> | To: Metastock bulletin board > <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2000 7:27 PM
> | Subject: SX - contact closes
> |
> |
> | > Thanks for your emails
> | >
> | > Attached is a chart of 30 years of SX closes from ~June 9 to ~Aug 21,
> the
> | > traditional seasonal trade time. These are regular prices down the
right
> | > side ... NOT normalized prices so you get to see what's historically
> cheap
> | > and dear. Series 1 or 1969 has a nice seasonal dip right where you
want
> it
> | > but the series is so flat that the total move is only 8 cents <G>
> | >
> | > Each perspective gives you different trading ideas. You might want to
> | verify
> | > your trade idea in several perspectives ... as you would with
different
> | time
> | > frames. It's easy to get blinders on.
> | >
> | > Best regards
> | >
> | > Walter
> | >
> | >
> |
>
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