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Hi Steve
This "thinking thing" is becoming a popular topic.<G>
"Thinking About Thinking: A Look at a Too-Often-Forgotten Approach"
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/945668.html
Best regards
Walter
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, May 23, 2000 4:50 PM
Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
| Walter,
|
| Honestly, this "thinking thing" is overrated. The dark ages of technical
| analysis were bright beacons when compared to any age of "fundamental
| enlightenment" (as in "non sequitor"). You might be right about the
water.
| Mine flows from 280 feet deep and is filtered through a 14 million year
old
| layer of basalt. It sure is sweet...but, it triggers little voices in my
| head (why else would I be long juice and hogs?).
|
| Steve Karnish
| Cedar Creek Trading
| http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
|
|
| ----- Original Message -----
| From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
| To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| Sent: Tuesday, May 23, 2000 12:47 PM
| Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
|
|
| >
| > Hi Steve
| >
| > "... Opinions are dangerous things in the markets. ..." Gee Steve ...
| I've
| > seen/hear some pretty strong opinions about indicators. Even a lot of
| > analysis and "thinking" about indicators over the years <G>
| >
| > I know that there might be some "complexity" in the data here ... but
| > there's no need to reach so soon for the Thorazine. Weren't you one of
the
| > originals that helped move TA out of the dark ages and into the modern
| era?
| >
| > "Egoectomy"? ... oh yes ... that and plenty of specifically targeted
drugs
| > ... but usually a good "slap-side-the-head" with a nice thick book does
| the
| > trick <G> .... then again ... maybe it's something in the drinking water
| > that causes this selective thinking and analysis.
| >
| > Best regards
| >
| > Walter
| >
| > ----- Original Message -----
| > From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
| > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| > Sent: Tuesday, May 23, 2000 2:16 PM
| > Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
| >
| >
| > | Walter,
| > |
| > | Now all you have to do is assign a really objective numeric weight for
| > items
| > | 1-14, add them up, develop "trigger" levels for the new "power
number",
| > and
| > | backtest it for a few decades. First, let's decide, on a scale of one
| to
| > | ten, how to rate the following:
| > |
| > | "1. Weather was a slightly negative market input early today."
| > |
| > | Whaddya think? 3.5 or 4.12389?? Better yet, can we get a little more
| > | objective with that 6-10 day forecast? First, it's predicted to be
| drier
| > | than a "popcorn fart"; then it rains "cats and dogs", then they say:
| "But
| > | the extreme northwestern corner of one county in Nebraska only got a
1/4
| > of
| > | an inch"; then the funds pay off the guy who wrote the "14" points
below
| > and
| > | he slips in a few extra bullish comments and then ... the beat goes
on.
| > |
| > | Opinions are dangerous things in the markets. It's pretty easy to go
| out
| > | into the world and find information that supports your current
| positions.
| > | When I tell the list that I'm entering a position, it's just another
| > | mechanical trade. My opinion about that trade or the overall
direction
| of
| > | the market is some really heavy extra baggage. In fact, do you know
any
| > | doctors that can perform an "Egoectomy"?
| > |
| > | Steve Karnish
| > | Cedar Creek Trading
| > | http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
| > |
| > |
| > |
| > | ----- Original Message -----
| > | From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
| > | To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| > | Sent: Tuesday, May 23, 2000 7:45 AM
| > | Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
| > |
| > |
| > | > Hi Steve
| > | >
| > | > You don't read? ... I'm sure that you are referring to the
difference
| > | > between reading opinion Vs reading fundamental and market data in
text
| > | > format. Here's an example between the usual "snappy little
paragraph"
| > and
| > | > something more ... comprehensive.
| > | >
| > | > Then again ... lots of us older guys have to move our lips while
| > reading.
| > | > <G>
| > | >
| > | > Best regards
| > | >
| > | > Walter
| > | >
| > | > ======================
| > | >
| > | > The soybean market closed lower today pressured by choppy two-sided
| > | trading
| > | > and large variability
| > | > among forecaster that left traders apprehensive on taking new
| positions.
| > | SN
| > | > closed down 1c at $5.53 1/2
| > | > per bushel. Funds bought 1,500 contracts putting their net estimated
| > | > position at 46,383 contracts and
| > | > commercials sold 200 contracts. Today's Bi-weekly COT report was
| release
| > | for
| > | > futures and options
| > | > combine as of May 9 th put funds net long position at 28,525
| contracts,
| > | > commercials net short position at
| > | > 63,842 contracts, and small specs 35,316 contracts.
| > | >
| > | > Other elements that effected today's market were:
| > | > 1. Weather was a slightly negative market input early today.
| > | > A. Argentina corn and soybean areas were mostly dry again over the
| > | weekend.
| > | > B. US Midwest Corn/Wheat Belts saw widely scattered, light showers
| over
| > | the
| > | > weekend, which
| > | > produced rain amounts of .10 to .50" with 25% coverage of the belt,
| > | favoring
| > | > the western half of
| > | > the belt.
| > | > C. US Plains Winter Wheat areas saw light showers over the weekend,
| > which
| > | > produced rain
| > | > amounts of .10 to .50" with 35% coverage of the belt.
| > | > 2. Funds and Commercials bought
| > | > 3. Farmer selling of cash soybeans was slow, and basis levels were
| > steady
| > | to
| > | > firm in most areas.
| > | > 4. Mid-session strength was a result of spillover support from meal,
| > corn,
| > | > and wheat.
| > | > 5. Weekly Export Shipments of 7.8 mil Bu. were on the lower end of
| > | estimates
| > | > of 7.0-12.0 mil Bu.
| > | > 6. Traders noted a lack of selling at higher levels, which allowed
| > prices
| > | to
| > | > rally with a minimum of
| > | > buying.
| > | > 7. The market is finding support from ideas that the US Government
| will
| > | > approve PNTR for China this
| > | > week.
| > | > 8. Today's upside was limited by ideas that tonight's Planting
| Progress
| > | > Report will indicate that
| > | > progress continued to run at record levels!
| > | > 9. Weakness in the US dollar was a supportive input.
| > | > 10. Continued strength in the CRB Index supported today's market, as
| the
| > | CRB
| > | > Index continues to make
| > | > new two-year highs.
| > | > 11. Traders remain concerned as there was talk regarding a
| > | > "high-pressure-ridge" developing in the
| > | > extended forecast.
| > | > 12. Friday's Commitment of Traders report was neutral, as figures
were
| > in
| > | > line with estimates.
| > | > 13. There were no indications of any Chinese interest in either the
| > | soybean
| > | > or meal markets today.
| > | > 14. Options trade was mixed too slightly negative as LDC bought 400
SN
| > | $5.75
| > | > calls, but also bought
| > | > 1,200 SN $5.25 puts.
| > | > Overall, trade volume was very slow.
| > | >
| > | > ===============================
| > | >
| > | > ----- Original Message -----
| > | > From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
| > | > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| > | > Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2000 11:56 PM
| > | > Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
| > | >
| > | >
| > | > | Bob,
| > | > |
| > | > | I try not to read (really). As you read, we took off our spreads
at
| > 46
| > | > | (July), one step ahead of that nasty big crowd (mentioned below).
I
| > | like
| > | > | wheat, but I'm currently short. I'm long oats and last week I
| stopped
| > | > | trading corn. If the wheat/corn spread narrows again, I'll be
back.
| > I
| > | > | wasn't in love with Friday's action, but I think we can work the
| wheat
| > | > | market lower early this week.
| > | > |
| > | > | Steve Karnish
| > | > | Cedar Creek Trading
| > | > | http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
| > | > | ----- Original Message -----
| > | > | From: Bob Jagow <bjagow@xxxxxxx>
| > | > | To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| > | > | Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2000 4:27 PM
| > | > | Subject: RE: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
| > | > |
| > | > |
| > | > | > Steve,
| > | > | > I haven't followed the TradingMarkets futures commentary to
this
| > | > point,
| > | > | > but was wondering whether it is considered accurate.
| > | > | > Any opinion on the appended?
| > | > | >
| > | > | > Bob
| > | > | >
| > | > | > ----
| > | > | > CORN
| > | > | > OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:21 AM: CORN +0. Key technical support held
| > this
| > | > week
| > | > | > and the if dry trend in southeast is confirmed on Monday morning
| > | weather
| > | > | > forecast, another round of buying looks likely. PRICE OUTLOOK:
| > | December
| > | > | > corn closed higher on the day and above the opening yesterday
but
| > the
| > | > | close
| > | > | > was 4 cents off the highs which is seen as disappointing to many
| > | bulls.
| > | > | > After short consolidation, look for more up next week.
| > | > | >
| > | > | > WHEAT
| > | > | > OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:21 AM: WHEAT +1. The wheat market
collapsed
| > | > | yesterday
| > | > | > under the weight of wheat/corn spread liquidation. As wheat is
| > | > approaching
| > | > | > harvest and corn is approaching the most uncertain period of the
| > year
| > | in
| > | > | > June, seasonal spreaders are taking profits on these spreads and
| the
| > | > rally
| > | > | > in corn yesterday prompted some panic liquidation of these
| > positions.
| > | > | While
| > | > | > the longer-term fundamentals look positive, traders are
concerned
| > that
| > | > | > harvest pressure are just around the corn and long liquidation
is
| > | > | > intensifying this week. PRICE OUTLOOK: September wheat needs a
| close
| > | > back
| > | > | > over 284 1/2 or risk additional liquidation to next support at
| 277.
| > | > | > ---
| > | > | >
| > | > | > -----Original Message-----
| > | > | > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
| > | > | > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
| > | > | > Sent: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 7:25 PM
| > | > | > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
| > | > | > Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
| > | > | >
| > | > | >
| > | > | > Walter,
| > | > | >
| > | > | > It's always fun to catch a top. Momentum oscillators can be
| > | stunningly
| > | > | > accurate or incredibly early and therefore, very frustrating.
| There
| > | was
| > | > a
| > | > | > time, early in this trade, that the funds were long 80,000 corn
| and
| > | > still
| > | > | > short 10,000 wheat. At the time, I thought that maybe the funds
| were
| > | > about
| > | > | > at their risk capacity (for exposure to one single commodity).
| > | > Sometimes
| > | > | > the fund movement reminds me of "bullish consensus": If 90% of
| the
| > | > people
| > | > | > surveyed say that corn is going up, no one is left to buy. If
the
| > | funds
| > | > | > already own 80,000 - 90,000 contracts (I think a record for
corn),
| > | > chances
| > | > | > are (and here is where this "thinking part" gets dangerous) that
| > they
| > | > will
| > | > | > liquidate, instead of build a larger position. Whatever is
going
| > on,
| > | > the
| > | > | > momentum oscillator is diving south again. The Bollinger
Momentum
| > | > | > Oscillator ("BB Thingy") provided two days to sell into it's
| > | overbought
| > | > | > condition. The funds are clumsy pests that cough up "chucks" of
| > | supply
| > | > | and
| > | > | > demand. Sometimes, you can get "slobbered" on even standing on
| the
| > | edge
| > | > | of
| > | > | > the action. It's always a thrill to witness the "group power"
| when
| > | they
| > | > | > unwind a position. How about this one: we're spread: short
| > | wheat/long
| > | > | > oats. This not a spread position ... but, the outright
mechanical
| > | > | approach
| > | > | > has created the artificial spread. At least it's working.
| > | > | >
| > | > | > Take care...always fun(z),
| > | > | >
| > | > | > Steve Karnish
| > | > | > Cedar Creek Trading
| > | > | > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
| > | > | >
| > | > | >
| > | > | > ----- Original Message -----
| > | > | > From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
| > | > | > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| > | > | > Sent: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 4:50 PM
| > | > | > Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
| > | >
| > | >
| > | >
| > |
| >
| >
|
|