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Walter,
Now all you have to do is assign a really objective numeric weight for items
1-14, add them up, develop "trigger" levels for the new "power number", and
backtest it for a few decades. First, let's decide, on a scale of one to
ten, how to rate the following:
"1. Weather was a slightly negative market input early today."
Whaddya think? 3.5 or 4.12389?? Better yet, can we get a little more
objective with that 6-10 day forecast? First, it's predicted to be drier
than a "popcorn fart"; then it rains "cats and dogs", then they say: "But
the extreme northwestern corner of one county in Nebraska only got a 1/4 of
an inch"; then the funds pay off the guy who wrote the "14" points below and
he slips in a few extra bullish comments and then ... the beat goes on.
Opinions are dangerous things in the markets. It's pretty easy to go out
into the world and find information that supports your current positions.
When I tell the list that I'm entering a position, it's just another
mechanical trade. My opinion about that trade or the overall direction of
the market is some really heavy extra baggage. In fact, do you know any
doctors that can perform an "Egoectomy"?
Steve Karnish
Cedar Creek Trading
http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
----- Original Message -----
From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, May 23, 2000 7:45 AM
Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
> Hi Steve
>
> You don't read? ... I'm sure that you are referring to the difference
> between reading opinion Vs reading fundamental and market data in text
> format. Here's an example between the usual "snappy little paragraph" and
> something more ... comprehensive.
>
> Then again ... lots of us older guys have to move our lips while reading.
> <G>
>
> Best regards
>
> Walter
>
> ======================
>
> The soybean market closed lower today pressured by choppy two-sided
trading
> and large variability
> among forecaster that left traders apprehensive on taking new positions.
SN
> closed down 1c at $5.53 1/2
> per bushel. Funds bought 1,500 contracts putting their net estimated
> position at 46,383 contracts and
> commercials sold 200 contracts. Today's Bi-weekly COT report was release
for
> futures and options
> combine as of May 9 th put funds net long position at 28,525 contracts,
> commercials net short position at
> 63,842 contracts, and small specs 35,316 contracts.
>
> Other elements that effected today's market were:
> 1. Weather was a slightly negative market input early today.
> A. Argentina corn and soybean areas were mostly dry again over the
weekend.
> B. US Midwest Corn/Wheat Belts saw widely scattered, light showers over
the
> weekend, which
> produced rain amounts of .10 to .50" with 25% coverage of the belt,
favoring
> the western half of
> the belt.
> C. US Plains Winter Wheat areas saw light showers over the weekend, which
> produced rain
> amounts of .10 to .50" with 35% coverage of the belt.
> 2. Funds and Commercials bought
> 3. Farmer selling of cash soybeans was slow, and basis levels were steady
to
> firm in most areas.
> 4. Mid-session strength was a result of spillover support from meal, corn,
> and wheat.
> 5. Weekly Export Shipments of 7.8 mil Bu. were on the lower end of
estimates
> of 7.0-12.0 mil Bu.
> 6. Traders noted a lack of selling at higher levels, which allowed prices
to
> rally with a minimum of
> buying.
> 7. The market is finding support from ideas that the US Government will
> approve PNTR for China this
> week.
> 8. Today's upside was limited by ideas that tonight's Planting Progress
> Report will indicate that
> progress continued to run at record levels!
> 9. Weakness in the US dollar was a supportive input.
> 10. Continued strength in the CRB Index supported today's market, as the
CRB
> Index continues to make
> new two-year highs.
> 11. Traders remain concerned as there was talk regarding a
> "high-pressure-ridge" developing in the
> extended forecast.
> 12. Friday's Commitment of Traders report was neutral, as figures were in
> line with estimates.
> 13. There were no indications of any Chinese interest in either the
soybean
> or meal markets today.
> 14. Options trade was mixed too slightly negative as LDC bought 400 SN
$5.75
> calls, but also bought
> 1,200 SN $5.25 puts.
> Overall, trade volume was very slow.
>
> ===============================
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2000 11:56 PM
> Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
>
>
> | Bob,
> |
> | I try not to read (really). As you read, we took off our spreads at 46
> | (July), one step ahead of that nasty big crowd (mentioned below). I
like
> | wheat, but I'm currently short. I'm long oats and last week I stopped
> | trading corn. If the wheat/corn spread narrows again, I'll be back. I
> | wasn't in love with Friday's action, but I think we can work the wheat
> | market lower early this week.
> |
> | Steve Karnish
> | Cedar Creek Trading
> | http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> | ----- Original Message -----
> | From: Bob Jagow <bjagow@xxxxxxx>
> | To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2000 4:27 PM
> | Subject: RE: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
> |
> |
> | > Steve,
> | > I haven't followed the TradingMarkets futures commentary to this
> point,
> | > but was wondering whether it is considered accurate.
> | > Any opinion on the appended?
> | >
> | > Bob
> | >
> | > ----
> | > CORN
> | > OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:21 AM: CORN +0. Key technical support held this
> week
> | > and the if dry trend in southeast is confirmed on Monday morning
weather
> | > forecast, another round of buying looks likely. PRICE OUTLOOK:
December
> | > corn closed higher on the day and above the opening yesterday but the
> | close
> | > was 4 cents off the highs which is seen as disappointing to many
bulls.
> | > After short consolidation, look for more up next week.
> | >
> | > WHEAT
> | > OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:21 AM: WHEAT +1. The wheat market collapsed
> | yesterday
> | > under the weight of wheat/corn spread liquidation. As wheat is
> approaching
> | > harvest and corn is approaching the most uncertain period of the year
in
> | > June, seasonal spreaders are taking profits on these spreads and the
> rally
> | > in corn yesterday prompted some panic liquidation of these positions.
> | While
> | > the longer-term fundamentals look positive, traders are concerned that
> | > harvest pressure are just around the corn and long liquidation is
> | > intensifying this week. PRICE OUTLOOK: September wheat needs a close
> back
> | > over 284 1/2 or risk additional liquidation to next support at 277.
> | > ---
> | >
> | > -----Original Message-----
> | > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> | > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> | > Sent: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 7:25 PM
> | > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> | > Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
> | >
> | >
> | > Walter,
> | >
> | > It's always fun to catch a top. Momentum oscillators can be
stunningly
> | > accurate or incredibly early and therefore, very frustrating. There
was
> a
> | > time, early in this trade, that the funds were long 80,000 corn and
> still
> | > short 10,000 wheat. At the time, I thought that maybe the funds were
> about
> | > at their risk capacity (for exposure to one single commodity).
> Sometimes
> | > the fund movement reminds me of "bullish consensus": If 90% of the
> people
> | > surveyed say that corn is going up, no one is left to buy. If the
funds
> | > already own 80,000 - 90,000 contracts (I think a record for corn),
> chances
> | > are (and here is where this "thinking part" gets dangerous) that they
> will
> | > liquidate, instead of build a larger position. Whatever is going on,
> the
> | > momentum oscillator is diving south again. The Bollinger Momentum
> | > Oscillator ("BB Thingy") provided two days to sell into it's
overbought
> | > condition. The funds are clumsy pests that cough up "chucks" of
supply
> | and
> | > demand. Sometimes, you can get "slobbered" on even standing on the
edge
> | of
> | > the action. It's always a thrill to witness the "group power" when
they
> | > unwind a position. How about this one: we're spread: short
wheat/long
> | > oats. This not a spread position ... but, the outright mechanical
> | approach
> | > has created the artificial spread. At least it's working.
> | >
> | > Take care...always fun(z),
> | >
> | > Steve Karnish
> | > Cedar Creek Trading
> | > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> | >
> | >
> | > ----- Original Message -----
> | > From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> | > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | > Sent: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 4:50 PM
> | > Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
>
>
>
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