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Hi Steve
You don't read? ... I'm sure that you are referring to the difference
between reading opinion Vs reading fundamental and market data in text
format. Here's an example between the usual "snappy little paragraph" and
something more ... comprehensive.
Then again ... lots of us older guys have to move our lips while reading.
<G>
Best regards
Walter
======================
The soybean market closed lower today pressured by choppy two-sided trading
and large variability
among forecaster that left traders apprehensive on taking new positions. SN
closed down 1c at $5.53 1/2
per bushel. Funds bought 1,500 contracts putting their net estimated
position at 46,383 contracts and
commercials sold 200 contracts. Today's Bi-weekly COT report was release for
futures and options
combine as of May 9 th put funds net long position at 28,525 contracts,
commercials net short position at
63,842 contracts, and small specs 35,316 contracts.
Other elements that effected today's market were:
1. Weather was a slightly negative market input early today.
A. Argentina corn and soybean areas were mostly dry again over the weekend.
B. US Midwest Corn/Wheat Belts saw widely scattered, light showers over the
weekend, which
produced rain amounts of .10 to .50" with 25% coverage of the belt, favoring
the western half of
the belt.
C. US Plains Winter Wheat areas saw light showers over the weekend, which
produced rain
amounts of .10 to .50" with 35% coverage of the belt.
2. Funds and Commercials bought
3. Farmer selling of cash soybeans was slow, and basis levels were steady to
firm in most areas.
4. Mid-session strength was a result of spillover support from meal, corn,
and wheat.
5. Weekly Export Shipments of 7.8 mil Bu. were on the lower end of estimates
of 7.0-12.0 mil Bu.
6. Traders noted a lack of selling at higher levels, which allowed prices to
rally with a minimum of
buying.
7. The market is finding support from ideas that the US Government will
approve PNTR for China this
week.
8. Today's upside was limited by ideas that tonight's Planting Progress
Report will indicate that
progress continued to run at record levels!
9. Weakness in the US dollar was a supportive input.
10. Continued strength in the CRB Index supported today's market, as the CRB
Index continues to make
new two-year highs.
11. Traders remain concerned as there was talk regarding a
"high-pressure-ridge" developing in the
extended forecast.
12. Friday's Commitment of Traders report was neutral, as figures were in
line with estimates.
13. There were no indications of any Chinese interest in either the soybean
or meal markets today.
14. Options trade was mixed too slightly negative as LDC bought 400 SN $5.75
calls, but also bought
1,200 SN $5.25 puts.
Overall, trade volume was very slow.
===============================
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2000 11:56 PM
Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
| Bob,
|
| I try not to read (really). As you read, we took off our spreads at 46
| (July), one step ahead of that nasty big crowd (mentioned below). I like
| wheat, but I'm currently short. I'm long oats and last week I stopped
| trading corn. If the wheat/corn spread narrows again, I'll be back. I
| wasn't in love with Friday's action, but I think we can work the wheat
| market lower early this week.
|
| Steve Karnish
| Cedar Creek Trading
| http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
| ----- Original Message -----
| From: Bob Jagow <bjagow@xxxxxxx>
| To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2000 4:27 PM
| Subject: RE: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
|
|
| > Steve,
| > I haven't followed the TradingMarkets futures commentary to this
point,
| > but was wondering whether it is considered accurate.
| > Any opinion on the appended?
| >
| > Bob
| >
| > ----
| > CORN
| > OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:21 AM: CORN +0. Key technical support held this
week
| > and the if dry trend in southeast is confirmed on Monday morning weather
| > forecast, another round of buying looks likely. PRICE OUTLOOK: December
| > corn closed higher on the day and above the opening yesterday but the
| close
| > was 4 cents off the highs which is seen as disappointing to many bulls.
| > After short consolidation, look for more up next week.
| >
| > WHEAT
| > OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:21 AM: WHEAT +1. The wheat market collapsed
| yesterday
| > under the weight of wheat/corn spread liquidation. As wheat is
approaching
| > harvest and corn is approaching the most uncertain period of the year in
| > June, seasonal spreaders are taking profits on these spreads and the
rally
| > in corn yesterday prompted some panic liquidation of these positions.
| While
| > the longer-term fundamentals look positive, traders are concerned that
| > harvest pressure are just around the corn and long liquidation is
| > intensifying this week. PRICE OUTLOOK: September wheat needs a close
back
| > over 284 1/2 or risk additional liquidation to next support at 277.
| > ---
| >
| > -----Original Message-----
| > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
| > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
| > Sent: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 7:25 PM
| > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
| > Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
| >
| >
| > Walter,
| >
| > It's always fun to catch a top. Momentum oscillators can be stunningly
| > accurate or incredibly early and therefore, very frustrating. There was
a
| > time, early in this trade, that the funds were long 80,000 corn and
still
| > short 10,000 wheat. At the time, I thought that maybe the funds were
about
| > at their risk capacity (for exposure to one single commodity).
Sometimes
| > the fund movement reminds me of "bullish consensus": If 90% of the
people
| > surveyed say that corn is going up, no one is left to buy. If the funds
| > already own 80,000 - 90,000 contracts (I think a record for corn),
chances
| > are (and here is where this "thinking part" gets dangerous) that they
will
| > liquidate, instead of build a larger position. Whatever is going on,
the
| > momentum oscillator is diving south again. The Bollinger Momentum
| > Oscillator ("BB Thingy") provided two days to sell into it's overbought
| > condition. The funds are clumsy pests that cough up "chucks" of supply
| and
| > demand. Sometimes, you can get "slobbered" on even standing on the edge
| of
| > the action. It's always a thrill to witness the "group power" when they
| > unwind a position. How about this one: we're spread: short wheat/long
| > oats. This not a spread position ... but, the outright mechanical
| approach
| > has created the artificial spread. At least it's working.
| >
| > Take care...always fun(z),
| >
| > Steve Karnish
| > Cedar Creek Trading
| > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
| >
| >
| > ----- Original Message -----
| > From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
| > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| > Sent: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 4:50 PM
| > Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
|