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Bob,
I try not to read (really). As you read, we took off our spreads at 46
(July), one step ahead of that nasty big crowd (mentioned below). I like
wheat, but I'm currently short. I'm long oats and last week I stopped
trading corn. If the wheat/corn spread narrows again, I'll be back. I
wasn't in love with Friday's action, but I think we can work the wheat
market lower early this week.
Steve Karnish
Cedar Creek Trading
http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
----- Original Message -----
From: Bob Jagow <bjagow@xxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2000 4:27 PM
Subject: RE: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
> Steve,
> I haven't followed the TradingMarkets futures commentary to this point,
> but was wondering whether it is considered accurate.
> Any opinion on the appended?
>
> Bob
>
> ----
> CORN
> OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:21 AM: CORN +0. Key technical support held this week
> and the if dry trend in southeast is confirmed on Monday morning weather
> forecast, another round of buying looks likely. PRICE OUTLOOK: December
> corn closed higher on the day and above the opening yesterday but the
close
> was 4 cents off the highs which is seen as disappointing to many bulls.
> After short consolidation, look for more up next week.
>
> WHEAT
> OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:21 AM: WHEAT +1. The wheat market collapsed
yesterday
> under the weight of wheat/corn spread liquidation. As wheat is approaching
> harvest and corn is approaching the most uncertain period of the year in
> June, seasonal spreaders are taking profits on these spreads and the rally
> in corn yesterday prompted some panic liquidation of these positions.
While
> the longer-term fundamentals look positive, traders are concerned that
> harvest pressure are just around the corn and long liquidation is
> intensifying this week. PRICE OUTLOOK: September wheat needs a close back
> over 284 1/2 or risk additional liquidation to next support at 277.
> ---
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 7:25 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
>
>
> Walter,
>
> It's always fun to catch a top. Momentum oscillators can be stunningly
> accurate or incredibly early and therefore, very frustrating. There was a
> time, early in this trade, that the funds were long 80,000 corn and still
> short 10,000 wheat. At the time, I thought that maybe the funds were about
> at their risk capacity (for exposure to one single commodity). Sometimes
> the fund movement reminds me of "bullish consensus": If 90% of the people
> surveyed say that corn is going up, no one is left to buy. If the funds
> already own 80,000 - 90,000 contracts (I think a record for corn), chances
> are (and here is where this "thinking part" gets dangerous) that they will
> liquidate, instead of build a larger position. Whatever is going on, the
> momentum oscillator is diving south again. The Bollinger Momentum
> Oscillator ("BB Thingy") provided two days to sell into it's overbought
> condition. The funds are clumsy pests that cough up "chucks" of supply
and
> demand. Sometimes, you can get "slobbered" on even standing on the edge
of
> the action. It's always a thrill to witness the "group power" when they
> unwind a position. How about this one: we're spread: short wheat/long
> oats. This not a spread position ... but, the outright mechanical
approach
> has created the artificial spread. At least it's working.
>
> Take care...always fun(z),
>
> Steve Karnish
> Cedar Creek Trading
> http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 4:50 PM
> Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
>
>
> > Hi Steve
> >
> > Gee ... I was just reading about your W/C spread today on the Bridge
> reports
> > <G>
> >
> > "... Much of the pressure at
> > the Chicago Board of Trade came as a number of large commodity fund and
> > commercial firms were said to be taking profits on long wheat/short corn
> > spread
> > positions. Traders said the spreads had been technically overbought and
> > noted
> > that it was difficult for wheat to gain on corn, heading into the teeth
of
> > the
> > U.S. winter wheat harvest in June. ...
> >
> > Unwinding of long
> > wheat/short corn spread positions then helped keep wheat near session
lows
> > despite a late recovery in corn and soybeans.
> > O'Connor Grain sold 500 lots of Jly, Prudential Securities sold 800
> Jly
> > and
> > ED&F Man sold 400 Dec. Cargill Investor Services sold 500 Jly and bought
> 400
> > Jly. FIMAT bought 500 Jly. ...
> >
> > ... The Jly wheat/corn spread closed at 41 3/4c, down 4 1/4c on the day.
> The
> > spread had risen from 19 1/2c on May 2 to 46c as of Tuesday's close.
..."
> >
> > I checked out your funds question from earlier in the week. What a mess
> ...
> > I guess those wheat longs are bound and determined to stand under the
> > corn/soy waterfall. <G> Should be easy money for you and your clients.
> >
> > Best regards
> >
> > Walter
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: "RealTraders Discussion Group" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>;
> > <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, May 17, 2000 1:39 PM
> > Subject: Re: long wheat, short corn (no mo)
> >
> >
> > | Walter,
> > |
> > | Thought I'd tell you what I was "thinking" about the July Wheat/Corn
> > spread
> > | we discussed during the third week in April. As you know, I seldom
> trade
> > | spreads, but found this "feed spread" very attractive. I was able to
> put
> > on
> > | these positions on at under 28. This morning I exited all positions
at
> 46
> > | or better.
> > |
> > | I know this technical approach is not for everyone...but consider that
> > | momentum oscillators can do a nice job of tracking "spreads". You can
> > enter
> > | and exit positions after penetrations of zero and 100; wait until the
> > | indicator reverses below and above these levels; or devise your own
> > | comfortable strategy (even use stops, gasp).
> > |
> > | Steve Karnish
> > | Cedar Creek Trading
> > | http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> > | ----- Original Message -----
> > | From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> > | To: Metastock bulletin board > <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > | Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2000 7:27 PM
> > | Subject: SX - contact closes
> > |
> > |
> > | > Thanks for your emails
> > | >
> > | > Attached is a chart of 30 years of SX closes from ~June 9 to ~Aug
21,
> > the
> > | > traditional seasonal trade time. These are regular prices down the
> right
> > | > side ... NOT normalized prices so you get to see what's historically
> > cheap
> > | > and dear. Series 1 or 1969 has a nice seasonal dip right where you
> want
> > it
> > | > but the series is so flat that the total move is only 8 cents <G>
> > | >
> > | > Each perspective gives you different trading ideas. You might want
to
> > | verify
> > | > your trade idea in several perspectives ... as you would with
> different
> > | time
> > | > frames. It's easy to get blinders on.
> > | >
> > | > Best regards
> > | >
> > | > Walter
> > | >
> > | >
> > |
> >
>
>
>
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