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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi John,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The only indicator that will work in bull
trends, bear trends and consolidations is that of cycles. Look at poor old Guy,
has a great system for bull markets but it is not working at
present.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Cycles go on and on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Dick.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>John Hunter <<A
href="mailto:jhunter@xxxxxxxxxx";>jhunter@xxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To: </B><A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Tuesday, 8 September 1998 1:31<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Jim,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>Your confusion is shared
by many I believe, certainly by myself. I have tried to address it in
the past on this forum with no positive outcome and you have prompted
me to try once again. To me the answer to this question is the most
important reason why anyone would use Metastock. Take your own system, as I
have come to understand it from your many very informative postings. When
you see a breakout from a tend occurring what indicator or combination of
indicators could be used to reliably predictive that the trend has ended and
the stock/commodity price will move in a new direction. I have noted you say
in a number of postings that you are forced to wait for sufficient
information (ie days of trading) to come in before you can redraw the new
price direction.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I have played around with a number of indicators, and
different combinations of indicators, with the object of finding a system
that will reliably signal that and end to the current trend is about to come
to an end. For example the daily DOW chart had a stochastic crossover,
indicating a sell, in late July and this was confirmed by a moving average
crossover shortly after this. (These can be viewed from the <BR><A
href="http://www.barchart.com";>http://www.barchart.com</A> page.) Now
I know it is not going to be that easy and so your confusion and my question
to the group. What indicators are useful in predicting the end of a
trend?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JH<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Jim Greening <<A
href="mailto:JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>Metastock <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Sunday, 6 September 1998 4:42<BR><B>Subject: </B>Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> We got the drop
that I was expecting this week, but now I'm confused. Are we in
the process of completing a typical four month bull market 20%
correction or is this the start of a bear market? I was definitely
bearish last week as all the indices were breaking intermediate and long
term up trends which confirmed a down trend was in process. That's
still the same this week, but I'm getting mixed signals.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>......snip..........snip..........snip............snip....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The internet stocks patterns would
support the bear market theory. Since I'm uncertain, my options at
this point are to either do nothing or since I'm all cash except for my
WCOM put options, I could nibble in both directions. Nibbling is
more fun and I have the large cash position for a cushion, so that's
what I'm going to do <G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT
color=#000000
size=2>......snip..........snip...........snip..........snip......</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>To me this looks like a typical long term trend
reversal pattern. I constructed a standard deviation Short Term
Down Trend Channel (STDTC) with the deviation set at 2 from the 8/19/98
high to the 9/1/98 low and extended it to the right. The top of
the STDTC is at 30 1/2 and the bottom of the channel can't be reached
since it is below zero. The fundamentals are what you would expect
of an internet stock, 229% sales growth, but negative earnings. It
could do great in a bull market, but should get killed in a bear
market. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>
</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Sep 08 06:13:38 1998
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From: "Dick Simmons" <simmons@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Overseas Markets
Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1998 18:12:42 +1000
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi Bill,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>You wrote:<BR></DIV>
<DIV></FONT>>Want cheering up? Unless you are short. Take a look
at Asia and Europe.<BR>>Tuesday may be a good day here.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Want confusion again??. Our market stalled and
didn't go anywhere today. Any one want to toss a coin with me?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Dick</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Sep 08 06:13:57 1998
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From: "Guy Tann" <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
Date: Tue, 8 Sep 1998 01:28:26 -0700
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You can't even trust your own brother :). He bailed and didn't even
remember to tell me. Left me holding a ton of paper. Only wish it had some
value left. Started with 2100 shares (wasn't I lucky?). The only time I
was ever ahead was the first day. I was just stupid and should have dumped
it immediately.
On this next IPO, he's the second largest shareholder, so he's going to get
me even from the first one. I refuse to buy any actual securities.
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Monday, September 07, 1998 6:51 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
>
>
> Guy,
>
> Idiotic Pitiful Opportunities? After all, what are relatives
> for anyway?
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
> ----------
> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> Date: Monday, September 07, 1998 5:10 PM
>
> Steve
>
> Keep me informed about the puts. I, too, believe that we're
> going to bounce
> up. As I said before, we might jump to the 1075 area and not
> break my
> downward trend line. Anywhere near there I'm out of here! I
> have a few
> dogs that I'm dumping as well.
>
> My brother got me involved in one of his IPOs. A can't lose...
> Right!
> Bought it at $14/share. After the reverse split, and buying
> some more, I
> think my current market value is $.20. Going to take this
> opportunity and
> bite the big one and take my loss.
>
> Thanks, baby brother. <g> He's got another one going now.
> Can't wait.
>
> Regards
>
> Guy
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> Karnish
> > Sent: Monday, September 07, 1998 8:10 AM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> >
> >
> > Guy,
> >
> > Soupy's son's Hunt and Tony went to school in Livonia. My
> > mother knew them in high school and I later met them in
> > Hollyweird (after they were bratty super stars). Hunt was the
> > drummer on a couple of Iggy Pop albums in the mid seventies.
> In
> > fact, if you listen to the sound track of those new Buick
> > commercials, it's Iggy's "Lust for Life". Tony plays the
> > booming bass and Hunt is the Neanderthal drummer. A couple
> of
> > those albums were produced by David Bowie and when he started
> > his Tin Machine band about 8 or 10 years ago, he teamed up
> with
> > the Sales Bros. I have a couple favorite stories about Hunt
> (one
> > involves Tijuana, a bar named Iguanas, and a mosh pit), I
> don't
> > think this is the proper forum.
> >
> > You might be too old to appreciate this (just teasing), but
> you
> > might want to visit: http://www.cklw.org/. I know it's not
> > WJR...but if you ever got into Dick Purtan or were listening
> to
> > any rock music in your "twenties", it's a real time machine.
> >
> > The search for descent priced out of the money puts is on.
> Over
> > the years "fair value" has always been a difficult thing to
> find
> > in any of the OEX series. I'm hoping that I can snag some
> value
> > in some new obscure option series that hardly anyone is
> playing
> > (options on futures). The lack of robust liquidity is
> certainly
> > a reasonable trade off if the OEX options don't offer any fair
> > value. I'll keep you informed. In a perfect world (Stevie
> > Wonder's Egocentric Idaho), the markets would exceed all my
> > expectation for the next 7 or 8 trading days and with our
> > society's attitude" "what have you done for me yesterday",
> > everyone would be myopic enough to think that we're going back
> > to new highs. Under that scenario, puts would be cheaper and
> > intrinsically, much closer to what they are worth.
> >
> > You seem to have a good grasp on your local market. All my
> good
> > friends InSaneDiego, are real giddy about the feeding frenzy
> > going on. It reminds me of the middle 80's to '88/'89 time.
> I
> > had a friend (old roommate) who left Denver in '86. He was a
> > bond trader and his wife was Marvin Davis's CPA's. They
> bought
> > a cute place adjacent to Griffith Park and paid $375k
> > (reasonable at the time). Eighteen months later they turned
> > down $650K. Recently, I've advised two close friends in North
> > County to cash out and rent for a couple of years. I actually
> > see 3% - 4% interest rates looming in the future. La la has
> > imploded before and I believe it's going to again. I know
> it's
> > a real trick bag...best of luck in how you play it. My
> > decisions are a bit easier: Do I buy all the acerage I want
> for
> > $1,000/acre or do I wait til spring when the bankers force a
> > bunch of sales around here and pick the land up for $700/acre?
> > I think I'll wait.
> >
> > Panhandling in Idaho,
> >
> > Steve Karnish
> > CCT
> >
> > ----------
> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > Date: Monday, September 07, 1998 12:33 AM
> >
> > Steve
> >
> > I can't believe you mentioned Gilda, Soupy, Tim Allan, et al.
> >
> > My ex-mother-in-law went to school with Soupy in West Va. and
> it
> > used to be
> > one of our funnest moments (as Evan would say <G>) to go down
> to
> > the
> > Macabees (sp?) Bldg., and celebrate New Years with Soupy.
> Both
> > of my older
> > boys have signed pictures from him. Heck, I went through
> > college having
> > lunch with Soupy <ggg>.
> >
> > I grew up with Gilda's older brother and just knew her as a
> > skinny little
> > kid.
> >
> > Tim Allan and family and my wife and son flew back on one of
> > their many trip
> > via Northworst. Tim's daughter tried to pick up Evan (she and
> > he were about
> > 4 at the time) but he was playing hard to get <g>. Tim
> offered
> > my wife and
> > son a ride in their limo to our house, but the little guy
> > wouldn't go, so
> > they took a cab (all of 4 miles from LAX).
> >
> > You forgot one of our most famous natives. Ivan!! I grew up
> > with Ivan. We
> > used to double date. What really shook me up 2 weeks ago was
> a
> > call that
> > one of our group died. Out of the original group (I was the
> > youngest),
> > everyone is dead except Ivan and myself.
> >
> > Do you have any recommendations on some out of the money puts
> > (OEX or S&P)?
> > I'm going to start stocking up on them over the next few
> weeks.
> > I took both
> > of my older kids totally out of equities and into Bonds. My
> > wife's 401k
> > can't be moved for 5 months so I've got to protect that with
> > some of these
> > Out of the Money Puts.
> >
> > I've also told my middle son to hold of on buying that house
> > he's been
> > looking at ($550k). At least wait until Christmas time when
> > the market
> > dies. The more I look at the numbers, it looks like 1999 will
> > be the end of
> > our bull move in housing here. It's not as important for him
> as
> > he make a
> > ton and his fiancée will make more than he does, so their
> > housing purchase
> > will be less than half their gross income this year. I wish I
> > had those
> > troubles... <ggg>
> >
> > If I had cahones, I'd sell mine and rent for a year or two. I
> > hate to see
> > the $300k equity evaporate. Wish someone offered housing puts
> > <G>. That
> > would be good insurance play. The alternative is to mortgage
> it
> > to the hilt
> > and use the money to short everything in sight. Nah, she
> won't
> > let me do
> > that either. My problem is that we have a bunch of money due,
> > hopefully by
> > year end that might disappear if everything goes to the
> dumper,
> > and it's
> > totally out of our control... You know the old story about
> > bending over and
> > kissing your *** goodbye. I'm afraid that will happen to us
> > this year and
> > it was a big part of retirement.
> >
> > Regards
> >
> > Guy
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> > Karnish
> > > Sent: Sunday, September 06, 1998 7:33 PM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > >
> > >
> > > Guy,
> > >
> > > Hopefully you saw through my thinly vailed, sarcastic
> Detroit
> > > humor (Robin Williams, Lily Tomlin, Tim Allen, Gilda Radner,
> > and
> > > of course Soupy), to see that I'm hanging on to my third
> week
> > in
> > > September prediction (It was about as thinly vailed as
> Madonna
> > > dressed up as a nun...another fine Murder City comedian).
> > >
> > > Of course, you're only as good as your last prediction.
> This
> > is
> > > for you Guy, the only person, on the list, who lived just
> off
> > > of Middlebelt (I lived five houses away 29525 W. Chicago).
> > You
> > > must promise to keep this to yourself: All my "super
> secret"
> > > calculations point to a rally to "bounce back" to at least
> > 1015
> > > - 1020 in the Sept. 500 and then I'm targeting 910 on the
> > > downside.
> > >
> > > I seldom target anything. It seems when I do, I get
> > emotionally
> > > attached to the outcome. These markets are real seducers.
> If
> > > you get to attached to an outcome, they'll break your heart.
> > >
> > > I almost "fell in love" with crude oil recently. We started
> > > going out early last week. It was love at first sight. She
> > had
> > > gone through tough times and I kinda "picked her up" near
> the
> > > bottom of her life. Well, things just got better everyday
> and
> > I
> > > thought it might last forever (you know, like a couple of
> > > weeks). Then, on Friday, she started acting funny. She no
> > > longer wanted go in the direction I wanted to go. It was
> like
> > > she followed me up to a point and then she resisted. It was
> > as
> > > if she would go right up to a line in the sand and then
> > wouldn't
> > > cross it. Well, I told her I'd take the weekend to
> > reevaluate
> > > our relationship, but, after consulting a few close,
> objective
> > > friends, I'm dumping her on Monday. I don't want to get
> hurt
> > > again. It's the best thing for both of us.
> > > Sorry about pouring my heart out in public. Please don't
> feel
> > > bad for me, we had some real good times and I've been seeing
> > > this girl from Canada on the side.
> > >
> > > Anyway, don't get caught with long positions right before
> the
> > > "triplewitch" ... she'll put a spell on you! If I come
> close
> > to
> > > any of these predictions, I'll be writing a book this
> winter:
> > > "Leonardo Fibonacci: The Missing Years". If not, I might
> > > write: "The Secret Rock and Roll Life of Robert Prechter".
> > >
> > > Hope your weekend is going good.
> > > Howling at the full moon,
> > >
> > > Steve Karnish
> > > CCT
> > >
> > >
> > > ----------
> > > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: RE: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > > Date: Sunday, September 06, 1998 4:17 PM
> > > >
> > > > OK Steve
> > > >
> > > > Now I'm confused. What's the date???? October 5 or the
> > third
> > > week of
> > > > September???
> > > >
> > > > The market held our support price, basis S&P futures of
> 936.
> > > The upside
> > > > channel resistance is 1076 (approx.). If we get anywhere
> > near
> > > there, I plan
> > > > on buying a bunch of Out of the Money Puts and hold on.
> > > >
> > > > I see a possible range for the S&P of 140 points and this
> > > translates to 1260
> > > > Dow points (approx.), I think. If we do get a run up to
> > > anywhere that
> > > > level, it might be worth it to 'take a shot'. This weeks
> > S&P
> > > support
> > > > (again, I'm talking futures prices here) is 941 (approx.).
> > > Any breakout
> > > > below that number, even interday, could mean a target of
> 867
> > > (approx.).
> > > > That would be the equivalent of 981 Dow points down from
> the
> > > close Friday.
> > > >
> > > > These are just some of the numbers I'm reading from my
> > charts.
> > > I haven't
> > > > looked at calculating a 'bottom'.
> > > >
> > > > Guy
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> > > Karnish
> > > > > Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:47 PM
> > > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Subject: Re: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or
> SIMS
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Guy,
> > > > >
> > > > > I was watching "Mr. Rogers" on PBS this morning and he
> > said:
> > > > > "Kids, can you spell: D I S S E M E N A T I O N "?
> > > > >
> > > > > If the funds were fully invested in July (not a big
> > stretch
> > > of
> > > > > the imagination, but let's assume that they were only
> 90%
> > > > > invested) and we see month, after month, after month, of
> > > > > withdrawals...how will that affect the market?
> > Duhhhhhhhh.
> > > > >
> > > > > Don't forget these "young guns" (funds managers that
> have
> > > never
> > > > > seen a bear market and in reality are investors and not
> > > traders)
> > > > > all get paid the bulk of their income on bonuses and
> they
> > > have
> > > > > refused to sell during this little 18% drawdown. "Hey
> > man,
> > > we
> > > > > can't cash out now and identify a loss, that will
> destroy
> > my
> > > > > year end bonus". Think about that whole scene.
> > > > >
> > > > > Notice that the same people that were raging bulls in
> mid
> > > July
> > > > > are now the ones who, like "Stan", think: I'm in it for
> > the
> > > > > long run. Sure! The public will be selling their funds
> > in
> > > > > record numbers right at the exact bottom. The same "8
> > year
> > > > > Wizard Investors" will be regurgitating every last share
> > and
> > > vow
> > > > > "never" to get involved again. Isn't this Yogi's deja
> vu
> > > all
> > > > > over again? Please respond if you were around for the
> 22
> > > month
> > > > > bear in '73 or around for the after birth of '87 (Guy, I
> > > know
> > > > > you were there, and please do keep supplying us with
> > > neighborly
> > > > > stories).
> > > > >
> > > > > For the bulls in the crowd, I'd love to hear your
> > arguments.
> > > > > Please don't make me giggle too much, I've already
> pulled
> > a
> > > > > stomach muscle laughing "all the way to the bank" this
> > week.
> > > > > Since the opening on Tuesday I've been long crude, long
> > the
> > > Can
> > > > > $, and long wheat. Each made historic contract lows
> > Monday
> > > or
> > > > > Tuesday and the commodity index made 21 year lows on
> > Friday
> > > and
> > > > > then again on Monday.
> > > > >
> > > > > So, one last chance to collect your marbles and go home.
> > > Two
> > > > > weeks from today is a 'triple witching" day. Before we
> > even
> > > get
> > > > > to the 18th of September, we must contend with my buddy
> > > > > Fibonacci. I alluded that Dino would break your
> kneecaps
> > > for
> > > > > $50. His ancient relative, Leonardo, will break your
> > heart
> > > (and
> > > > > steal your wallet) in 55 days (from the highs). Tick,
> > > tick,
> > > > > tick, tick, tick, on our way to 55 and counting.
> > > > >
> > > > > Steve Karnish
> > > > > CCT
> > > > > ----------
> > > > > > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > Subject: 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment or SIMS
> > > > > > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 2:44 PM
> > > > > >
> > > > > > This is a personal note about the market and various
> > > investor
> > > > > thoughts.
> > > > > > I'll call it the 'Stan' indicator of market sentiment
> or
> > > SIMS
> > > > > <G>.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Background..
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I have a friend, locally, who has been the poster boy
> > for
> > > the
> > > > > bull market.
> > > > > > He was born into a family in South Central LA. For
> > those
> > > of
> > > > > you who don't
> > > > > > know, that's the pits. I won't go into details of his
> > > youth,
> > > > > but he managed
> > > > > > to succeed in life, no help to family and friends. By
> > the
> > > > > time he was 40,
> > > > > > he owned his home outright here (with an ocean view
> > even).
> > > > > Married a cute
> > > > > > blond and has an 8 year old, who is my son's best
> friend
> > > (or
> > > > > second best, if
> > > > > > you ask my son <G>). In fact, that's how I originally
> > met
> > > > > Stan. Through
> > > > > > his wife while playing Mr. Mom with my 18 month old.
> So
> > > I've
> > > > > known Stan for
> > > > > > 6 1/2 years.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Stan's Market Philosophy
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Stan, based on his background, is not a spender. His
> > > wife is
> > > > > perfect for
> > > > > > him, because she can grind down the best of them
> <ggg>.
> > > > > Anyway, Stan is a
> > > > > > sales rep. Respected and liked in his field, I'm
> told.
> > > He
> > > > > currently makes
> > > > > > about $150k a year and saves $4-5k a month. And don't
> > ask
> > > me
> > > > > how? We make
> > > > > > a lot more and save a lot less. <G>
> > > > > >
> > > > > > For as long as I've know Stan, he has been dumping all
> > > excess
> > > > > cash into
> > > > > > various funds. He stayed away from any funds with
> > > > > international exposures,
> > > > > > probably based upon his conservative bent. When we
> > > discussed
> > > > > the various
> > > > > > ups and downs of the market, the two of us are on
> > > different
> > > > > planets. His
> > > > > > response was, always, "so the market dropped." "I'm
> in
> > it
> > > for
> > > > > the long pull
> > > > > > and in the next 18 years or so, it'll do OK." He felt
> > > that
> > > > > the last few
> > > > > > years were a little extreme, but that he would be able
> > to
> > > > > maintain a 10% per
> > > > > > year growth. In my mind, Stan is the typical, modern
> > > investor
> > > > > with their
> > > > > > 401k investments.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Last week, everything changed! Stan has decided to
> > forgo
> > > > > putting any more
> > > > > > money into his various funds. He has started
> investing
> > > all of
> > > > > his new
> > > > > > savings in CD's and Bonds. Now, you have to
> understand
> > > that
> > > > > he is not
> > > > > > pulling any money out of his mutual funds, just not
> > adding
> > > > > anything new.
> > > > > > For Stan, this is a MAJOR paradigm shift. And while
> he
> > > > > refuses to look at
> > > > > > historical facts in the market, when annual return was
> > > > > substantially less
> > > > > > than 10% a year, he has at least started to protect
> > > himself
> > > > > and not keep all
> > > > > > of his eggs in one basket.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I sort of refer to this as the SIMS. If he represents
> > the
> > > > > average American,
> > > > > > then we can look for Fund inflows to decrease while
> Bond
> > > funds
> > > > > and banks
> > > > > > should have increased inflows. Meaning more money
> > > available
> > > > > for lending and
> > > > > > no where to go.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I wonder how long it'll take Stan to realize that all
> of
> > > his
> > > > > current fund
> > > > > > investments are exposed to risk? My dad told me a
> year
> > > ago,
> > > > > that the
> > > > > > NASDAQ will drop 50% before the public will figure out
> > > they're
> > > > > in a bear
> > > > > > market. I guess I'll keep watching Stan!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Regards
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Guy
> > > > >
> > >
> > ----------
> >
> ----------
>
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