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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>JH,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>
I've tried many in the past and usually just come back to waiting for the trend
channel to break. You don't have to get in at the bottom and out at the
top as long as you are long for most of the run up and short for most of the run
down. I think my basic problem is that I just don't like sitting on large
cash positions. That's why I'm nibbling both ways this week. If I
was purely playing my system I would proceed with new short positions
only. However, I tell myself that if we are near the bottom it doesn't
hurt to do a little bottom fishing with small positions <G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jim</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>John Hunter <<A
href="mailto:jhunter@xxxxxxxxxx";>jhunter@xxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To: </B><A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Monday, September 07, 1998 10:05 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Jim,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>Your confusion is shared
by many I believe, certainly by myself. I have tried to address it in
the past on this forum with no positive outcome and you have prompted
me to try once again. To me the answer to this question is the most
important reason why anyone would use Metastock. Take your own system, as I
have come to understand it from your many very informative postings. When
you see a breakout from a tend occurring what indicator or combination of
indicators could be used to reliably predictive that the trend has ended and
the stock/commodity price will move in a new direction. I have noted you say
in a number of postings that you are forced to wait for sufficient
information (ie days of trading) to come in before you can redraw the new
price direction.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I have played around with a number of indicators, and
different combinations of indicators, with the object of finding a system
that will reliably signal that and end to the current trend is about to come
to an end. For example the daily DOW chart had a stochastic crossover,
indicating a sell, in late July and this was confirmed by a moving average
crossover shortly after this. (These can be viewed from the <BR><A
href="http://www.barchart.com";>http://www.barchart.com</A> page.) Now
I know it is not going to be that easy and so your confusion and my question
to the group. What indicators are useful in predicting the end of a
trend?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JH<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Jim Greening <<A
href="mailto:JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>Metastock <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Sunday, 6 September 1998 4:42<BR><B>Subject: </B>Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> We got the drop
that I was expecting this week, but now I'm confused. Are we in
the process of completing a typical four month bull market 20%
correction or is this the start of a bear market? I was definitely
bearish last week as all the indices were breaking intermediate and long
term up trends which confirmed a down trend was in process. That's
still the same this week, but I'm getting mixed signals.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>......snip..........snip..........snip............snip....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The internet stocks patterns would
support the bear market theory. Since I'm uncertain, my options at
this point are to either do nothing or since I'm all cash except for my
WCOM put options, I could nibble in both directions. Nibbling is
more fun and I have the large cash position for a cushion, so that's
what I'm going to do <G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT
color=#000000
size=2>......snip..........snip...........snip..........snip......</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>To me this looks like a typical long term trend
reversal pattern. I constructed a standard deviation Short Term
Down Trend Channel (STDTC) with the deviation set at 2 from the 8/19/98
high to the 9/1/98 low and extended it to the right. The top of
the STDTC is at 30 1/2 and the bottom of the channel can't be reached
since it is below zero. The fundamentals are what you would expect
of an internet stock, 229% sales growth, but negative earnings. It
could do great in a bull market, but should get killed in a bear
market. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>
</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Sep 07 12:01:29 1998
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From: "Richard Estes" <rtestes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Metastock" <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: a little Gann is good for soul
Date: Mon, 7 Sep 1998 12:47:20 -0500
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>here is a simple template, first set
cycle lines at 8, and start on MAR 21st or closest trading day to it. these give
you warning of possible CIT days.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>now place horizontal lines at
2,4,6,8,11,15,19,23,28,34,40,46,53,61,69,77,86,96,106,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>116,127,139,151, put these in red</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>then in blue put 3,5,7,9,13,17,21,25,31,37,43,
49,57,65,73,81,91,101,111,121,133</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>145,157.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>These are areas of support and
resistance.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>do this and see what they have said on stocks in
past.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>Richard Estes</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Sep 07 12:30:08 1998
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From: "Crock" <alain.weisrock@xxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: remove
Date: Mon, 7 Sep 1998 20:20:18 +0200
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