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<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Dick</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>On the
contrary, our system is definitely not a trend type system. Our worst
years in the last 16 years was 1995, I think (would have to look it up), where
it was up 100%. We are contrarian traders. Strictly short
term. This is the first time we've been out of a market this long in 16
years. If a move goes against us, we get stopped out and never trade in
that same direction again. We wait for the opposite signal. The
reason is that we play probabilities. We know that we're going to be right
75% of the time (at least over the last 16 years).</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>If we
get stopped out because the market has gone x points against us, we know that
the odds are that we will lose money on that trade and not to chase it.
Since we were wrong on the direction of that trade, we assume that all following
signals in that same direction will be wrong. We were stopped out of a
long position in one of the giant market swings on 7/23. We did have a
sell signal, however our system requires something we call a contrary.
That's a measure of the strength of the price move that day. So for us to
go short (remember we're contrarians), we need an up day, either the day of the
signal or the previous day. The contrary we got was too high and therefore
we couldn't go short and needed to wait. We're still waiting
<G>.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff
face=Arial size=2>Just didn't want to leave the impression that we have a bull
or trend following system. Our system is based upon daily price
movement.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Emotionally, I am probably more comfortable as a bear. But that's
my personality. Regardless, we just trade our signals and don't really
care about the direction, just that we get a certain amount of activity.
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Regards</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Guy</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On
Behalf Of</B> Dick Simmons<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, September 08, 1998 1:09
AM<BR><B>To:</B> metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi John,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The only indicator that will work in bull
trends, bear trends and consolidations is that of cycles. Look at poor old
Guy, has a great system for bull markets but it is not working at
present.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Cycles go on and on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Dick.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original
Message-----</B><BR><B>From: </B>John Hunter <<A
href="mailto:jhunter@xxxxxxxxxx";>jhunter@xxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Tuesday, 8 September 1998 1:31<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Jim,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>Your confusion is
shared by many I believe, certainly by myself. I have tried to
address it in the past on this forum with no positive outcome and
you have prompted me to try once again. To me the answer to this
question is the most important reason why anyone would use Metastock.
Take your own system, as I have come to understand it from your many
very informative postings. When you see a breakout from a tend occurring
what indicator or combination of indicators could be used to reliably
predictive that the trend has ended and the stock/commodity price will
move in a new direction. I have noted you say in a number of postings
that you are forced to wait for sufficient information (ie days of
trading) to come in before you can redraw the new price
direction.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I have played around with a number of indicators, and
different combinations of indicators, with the object of finding a
system that will reliably signal that and end to the current trend is
about to come to an end. For example the daily DOW chart had a
stochastic crossover, indicating a sell, in late July and this was
confirmed by a moving average crossover shortly after this. (These can
be viewed from the <BR><A
href="http://www.barchart.com";>http://www.barchart.com</A> page.)
Now I know it is not going to be that easy and so your confusion and my
question to the group. What indicators are useful in predicting the end
of a trend?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JH<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original
Message-----</B><BR><B>From: </B>Jim Greening <<A
href="mailto:JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>Metastock <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Sunday, 6 September 1998 4:42<BR><B>Subject: </B>Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> We got the
drop that I was expecting this week, but now I'm confused. Are
we in the process of completing a typical four month bull market 20%
correction or is this the start of a bear market? I was
definitely bearish last week as all the indices were breaking
intermediate and long term up trends which confirmed a down trend
was in process. That's still the same this week, but I'm
getting mixed signals.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>......snip..........snip..........snip............snip....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The internet stocks patterns would
support the bear market theory. Since I'm uncertain, my
options at this point are to either do nothing or since I'm all cash
except for my WCOM put options, I could nibble in both
directions. Nibbling is more fun and I have the large cash
position for a cushion, so that's what I'm going to do
<G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT
color=#000000
size=2>......snip..........snip...........snip..........snip......</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>To me this looks like a typical long term trend
reversal pattern. I constructed a standard deviation Short
Term Down Trend Channel (STDTC) with the deviation set at 2 from the
8/19/98 high to the 9/1/98 low and extended it to the right.
The top of the STDTC is at 30 1/2 and the bottom of the channel
can't be reached since it is below zero. The fundamentals are
what you would expect of an internet stock, 229% sales growth, but
negative earnings. It could do great in a bull market, but
should get killed in a bear market. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>
</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Date: Tue, 08 Sep 1998 23:22:23 +0200
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: derksenf <derksenf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Exit strategies
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Hi Harvey,
Here's the formula I typed in the Indicator builder:
Pds:=21;
Mult:=3;
TruRan:=Mov(ATR(1),Pds,W)*Mult;
HiLimit:=HHV(H,Pds)-TruRan;
LoLimit:=LLV(L,Pds)+TruRan;
If(C>HiLimit,HiLimit,LoLimit)
I used exactly the same formula to refer to by the Expert.
As I told you before it works fine in over 99% of the time, showing me nice
green (the only thing I changed fm your original) bars when C> TTT ind. and
red ones when C<= TTTind.
Though I'm very clumsy at this I tried to attach a Dow30 chart in HTML
format, and one in JPEG format just to show you what I mean. The message
left my machine but never bounced back to me so I guess my "bitties" are
forever floating in cyberspace.
While sending I realised how much time was used, and I sent out an excuse to
all.
Anyway The dates are: Nov 10 and 11 and Dec 12 1997 are the wrongdoers. I
loaded enough data. I even restarted (you never know)
- I'm just curious if other list-friends have the same experience and would
like to know why MS6.5 sometimes and suddenly makes this mistake ??? -
Is it the little W95 devil at work ? Something wrong with the co-processor
in my P-133 ? Something wrong with my eyes ?
What happens when you apply this Expert to the DJ30 on your MS6.5 ?
And maybe mijnheer Ton Maas could lend us a hand with this one ??
I get the same results changing Pds:=21;
for: Pds:=Input("Lookback Periods?",1,1000,20); where I changed 20 for
21(in the hard-code).
Kind Regards,
Frans
At 20:24 5-09-98 -0700, you wrote:
>Frans/
>
>Assuming you entered everything exactly in both the Indicator Builder
>and the Expert Advisor, one question comes to mind. Did you decide to
>adapt the formula to MS v.6.5 and use an Input function for Pds and
>Mult? It seems like a logical thing to do, and in fact I coded it that
>way at first. The problem is that the Expert Advisor always reverts to
>the default value (the System Tester does the same thing). Thus if you
>used something like:
>Pds:=Input("Lookback Periods?",1,1000,20)
>and then when you applied it you changed the periods to 15, the Expert
>Advisor will still read 20. I hard-coded the Pds and Mult parameters
>for that reason.
>
>Harvey Pearce, Victoria, B.C., Canada
>=====================================
>
>derksenf wrote:
>>
>> Harvey,
>>
>> You didn't screw up anything. On the contrary you did a superb job. Thank
>> you so much. It's great in helping me to learn to play and starting to feel
>> the power of the man with the bowlerhat.
>>
>> You already see it coming......
>>
>> BUT...as over 90% of the charts I applied it with look good suddenly there
>> is this defect sneaking in...
>>
>> On the DowJones Industrials dates 10 and 11 Nov 97' and Dec 12 '97 the
>> Uptrend condition, C>FmlVar("Trading the Trend","HiLimit") is true but the
>> color of the bar is red while it should be blue !! Values for
>> trading-the-trend-indicator on 10 Nov:7531.31, Close: 7552.59 on Nov 11:
>> 7504.37, Close 7558.73 and on Dec 12: 7677.98, Close 7878.30
>>
>> (Hey, that close is higher than today's. What happened? Thought we all
>> agreed we would go up forever.....<GG>)
>>
>> There are a few more examples I could give you.
>>
>> What's going on ? Did I do something wrong ? Is my cpu making mistakes ? or
>> is it in MS 6.5 ?
>>
>> Could you and the rest of the list who is interested (EQUIS-support??) check
>> this out.
>>
>> Regards
>>
>> Curious Frans
>>
>> (At 17:29 1-09-98 -0700, you wrote:
>> >John/
>> >
>> >An article in the September 1998 TAS&C, "Trading the Trend" by Andrew
>> >Abraham, was about one form of stoploss exit: subtract some manipulation
>> >of the true range from the highest high (or add it to the lowest low)
>> >and exit when the close crosses that. Members of Chuck LeBeau's Traders
>> >Club will recognise the "Chandelier Exit".
>> >
>> >Here's my version of it (for MS v 6.5). I've written it this way to
>> >make it easy to change the lookback periods and the multiplier.
>> >
>> >Name: Trading the Trend
>> >
>> >Pds:=21;
>> >Mult:=3;
>> >TruRan:=Mov(ATR(1),Pds,W)*Mult;
>> >HiLimit:=HHV(H,Pds)-TruRan;
>> >LoLimit:=LLV(L,Pds)+TruRan;
>> >If(C>HiLimit,HiLimit,LoLimit)
>> >
>> >1. After closing the Indicator Builder click on the Expert Advisor (the
>> >guy in the bowler/derby hat).
>> >2. Click on New, then the Name tab, type in Trading the Trend.
>> >3. Click on the Highlights tab, select the first line so that it is
>> >highlighted, click Edit, type in the name Uptrend, select Colour Blue,
>> >select Condition, type in C>FmlVar("Trading the Trend","HiLimit"),click
>> >OK,
>> >4. Still on the Highlights tab, select the second line, click Edit,
>> >type in the name Downtrend, select Color Red, select Condition, type in
>> >C<=FmlVar("Trading the Trend","HiLimit"), click OK, click OK again.
>> >5. If you have a chart open that you want to use this on, click Attach,
>> >otherwise click Close. In the latter case, when you open a chart and
>> >plot the trendline, click on the Expert Advisor, select Trading the
>> >Trend, and click on Attach.
>> >
>> >I've given the Expert steps in detail for any who may not be familiar
>> >with its use. To experiment with variations in the lookback periods and
>> >the multiplier you can do so in either the Indicator Builder, or
>> >right-click the indicator on the chart, select Properties, then the
>> >Formula tab, and make the changes (e.g. try a lookback period of 10, and
>> >a multiplier of 2.5). As implemented above, the Expert should change
>> >accordingly. This shows the trade-offs that have to be made between
>> >near and distant stops. This is too rudimentary to be traded as a
>> >system - the whipsaws would chop you to pieces - but the exits should
>> >help to limit drawdowns.
>> >
>> >A very similar stoploss is given in Chande & Kroll "The New Technical
>> >Trader", pp.167 - 169, "Volatility-Based Trailing Stops". My preference
>> >is to plot both the high and the low exit lines in contrasting colours,
>> >dispensing with the switch between them, and dispensing with the
>> >Expert. If anyone wants help with the code, just say so. And if I've
>> >screwed something up again, say so.
>> >
>> >Harvey Pearce, Victoria, B.C., Canada
>> >=====================================
>> >
>> >
>> >John Manasco wrote:
>> >>
>> >> After reading several posts recently by some new and old participants in
>> >> the list I would like to start a discussion of my favorite subject,
>> >> namely loosing money. It seems there is a lot of confusion about when to
>> >> get out of a stock or commodity. Most of that confusion is between my
>> >> ears.
>> >>
>> >> First when you purchase a stock or commodity when do you pull out if the
>> >> position moves against you? Second, how much do you let your position
>> >> fall thinking that it's just a retracement a will continue the move?
>> >> Could someone explain how to use stops properly? Especially trailing
>> >> stops. Do I need em? I am getting mad watching my profits evaporate and
>> >> go into losses.
>> >>
>> >> Last week I went flat in my portfolio. I sold all my stocks and kept all
>> >> my option straddles. Then I fretted all week that I had missed the
>> >> bottom and would miss the next up move. That's when I realized I have
>> >> too much emotion involved in my decisions. I have always said I don't
>> >> have a good exit strategy but I didn't realize just how much my emotions
>> >> were playing into it. Now I question my entry strategy too, and that's
>> >> pretty much mechanical. The subjective part is whether or not to
>> >> actually put the trade on.
>> >>
>> >> Everyone tells me about fear and greed dominating trading decisions. I
>> >> also think I have listened too long about my time frame and goals. I
>> >> have been investing for ten years and trading for maybe five. Over that
>> >> time people have told me to invest for the long run, let my profits
>> >> ride, don't be swayed by short term blips, decide what time frame I want
>> >> to trade and all the other admonitions about trading. This has served to
>> >> confuse me more than help me as I made the transition from investor to
>> >> trader.
>> >>
>> >> So I admit it, I sometimes lose money because of my exit strategies. A
>> >> lot more than I would like to admit. So what are some of your thoughts
>> >> on exiting a position. I really hope I get a lot of feedback on this
>> >> because this is really important to me, and it seems to a lot of other
>> >> people too.
>> >>
>> >> John Manasco
>> >
>> >
>
>
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