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RE: [RT] plausible scenario....??



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Yes, I am aware 
of the CURRENT dollar rally...
I am speaking 
about the next 18 months.
Think the USD 
will continue to rally in that period ?
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  <FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Norman Winski 
  [mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, July 01, 2003 11:27 
  PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] 
  plausible scenario....??
  see below
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  >
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    <DIV 
    >From: 
    Mark Simms 
    
    To: <A 
    title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="">RealtradersList 
    Sent: Tuesday, July 01, 2003 10:47 
    PM
    Subject: [RT] plausible 
    scenario....??
    
    As I watch this 
    "wack-a-mole" stock market that goes down only shortly on bad news, only to 
    "pop right up" again to frustrate the shorts....
    I wonder if this scenario 
    is plausible over the next 18 months:
     
    1) continued government 
    deficits and demand for funding cause interest rates to begin 
    rising...
    cueing a fall in the bond 
    market; the long running boom in the real estate market 
    ends.
     
    2) foreign capital begins 
    to withdraw from all US financial markets as the US dollar tumbles against 
    major currencies
     
    NW: To which tumble on the 
    dollar are you referring?  The US Dollar Index rallied 
    
    from 92.50 low on June 13 
    to about 95.75 high on June 27 and pullback to today's closing low at 
    94.64.  
     
    <FONT 
size=2>Regards,
     
    Norman
     
    3) US stock markets decline 
    due to low-or-no earnings growth and valuation concerns.
     
    Has this ever happened in 
    US financial history before: all 3 markets decline simultaneously 
    ?
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