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I think that's an optimistic assumption but it's on the way.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 11:20 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] plausible scenario....??
MS,
I think that long term, the US Dollar Index is headed to at least 88 and
possibly
78.
Regards,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
From: Mark Simms
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 10:05 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] plausible scenario....??
Yes, I am aware of the CURRENT dollar rally...
I am speaking about the next 18 months.
Think the USD will continue to rally in that period ?
-----Original Message-----
From: Norman Winski [mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, July 01, 2003 11:27 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] plausible scenario....??
see below
----- Original Message -----
From: Mark Simms
To: RealtradersList
Sent: Tuesday, July 01, 2003 10:47 PM
Subject: [RT] plausible scenario....??
As I watch this "wack-a-mole" stock market that goes down only shortly
on bad news, only to "pop right up" again to frustrate the shorts....
I wonder if this scenario is plausible over the next 18 months:
1) continued government deficits and demand for funding cause interest
rates to begin rising...
cueing a fall in the bond market; the long running boom in the real
estate market ends.
2) foreign capital begins to withdraw from all US financial markets as
the US dollar tumbles against major currencies
NW: To which tumble on the dollar are you referring? The US Dollar
Index rallied
from 92.50 low on June 13 to about 95.75 high on June 27 and pullback
to today's closing low at 94.64.
Regards,
Norman
3) US stock markets decline due to low-or-no earnings growth and
valuation concerns.
Has this ever happened in US financial history before: all 3 markets
decline simultaneously ?
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