Re: [RT] plausible scenario....??

["Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

MS,
 
 I think that long term, the US Dollar Index 
is headed to at least 88 and possibly 
78. 
 
Regards,
 
Norman
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  Mark Simms 
  
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Wednesday, July 02, 2003 10:05 
  AM
  Subject: RE: [RT] plausible 
  scenario....??
  
  Yes, I am aware 
  of the CURRENT dollar rally...
  I am speaking 
  about the next 18 months.
  Think the USD 
  will continue to rally in that period ?
  <FONT color=#0000ff 
  size=2> 
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  >
    <FONT face=Tahoma 
    size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Norman Winski 
    [mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, July 01, 2003 11:27 
    PMTo: <A 
    href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: 
    Re: [RT] plausible scenario....??
    see below
    <BLOCKQUOTE 
    >
      ----- Original Message ----- 
      <DIV 
      >From: 
      Mark 
      Simms 
      To: <A 
      title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      href="">RealtradersList 
      Sent: Tuesday, July 01, 2003 10:47 
      PM
      Subject: [RT] plausible 
      scenario....??
      
      As I watch this 
      "wack-a-mole" stock market that goes down only shortly on bad news, only 
      to "pop right up" again to frustrate the shorts....
      I wonder if this scenario 
      is plausible over the next 18 months:
      <FONT 
size=2> 
      1) continued government 
      deficits and demand for funding cause interest rates to begin 
      rising...
      cueing a fall in the bond 
      market; the long running boom in the real estate market 
      ends.
      <FONT 
size=2> 
      2) foreign capital begins 
      to withdraw from all US financial markets as the US dollar tumbles against 
      major currencies
      <FONT 
size=2> 
      NW: To which tumble on 
      the dollar are you referring?  The US Dollar Index rallied 
      
      from 92.50 low on June 13 
      to about 95.75 high on June 27 and pullback to today's closing low at 
      94.64.  
      <FONT 
size=2> 
      <FONT 
      size=2>Regards,
      <FONT 
size=2> 
      <FONT 
size=2>Norman
      <FONT 
size=2> 
      3) US stock markets 
      decline due to low-or-no earnings growth and valuation 
      concerns.
      <FONT 
size=2> 
      Has this ever happened in 
      US financial history before: all 3 markets decline simultaneously 
      ?
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