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Here is another historical stock market source for mid 1850s to mid 1880s
http://hometown.aol.com/thkalinke/homepage/19CSPP.html
This is a very interesting article about long term historical returns on
stocks and bonds
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/402/2cent.htm
Regards,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, January 29, 2003 5:19 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] DJIA - the next 4 years
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, January 29, 2003 4:39 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DJIA - the next 4 years
>
>
> > Norman,
> >
> > Where can we find DJI data going back that far? Mine only goes to
> > 1928.
> >
> > Thanks.
> > AS
>
> My charts are hard copies. The now defunct Foundation for the Study of
> Cycles offered a 200 year stock market chart. Securities Research Company
> in the Boston area also used to sell a big 200 year stock market wall
chart.
> You can get the DJIA from 1895 here
> http://averages.dowjones.com/jsp/industrialAverages.jsp
> Here is the US stock market 1800 - 1900
> http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/USDJIND1800-1900.gif
> You can get other related charts at the same website here
> http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Historical.htm#COMMODITIES
>
> I recommend reading mucho economic and financial history. I recommend
> Charles P. Kindleberger's
> Panics, Manias, & Crashes.
>
> Historically,
>
> Norman
>
>
>
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > Stan,
> > >
> > > The rule of alternation would say that the 2000 Bubble top will
> > not unravel like the 1929 top. Check out the 1873-74 top and
> > ensuing period for what is probably a more similar period. 1942 was
> > the bottom of the 46 year cycle via Saturn -Uranus synodical period.
> > That probably repeated via the '87 crash low. As for expecting the
> > market to bounce back after 3-4 years, most generational bubbles
> > unravel over 10-20 year perods.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Norman
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Stan Book
> > > To: Realtraders
> > > Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003 11:25 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] DJIA - the next 4 years
> > >
> > >
> > > A number of intelligent folks equate the 2000 top with the 1929
> > top. It
> > > took a quarter century for the DJIA to exceed the '29 high, and a
> > decade and
> > > a half to convinvingly break out above the 1000 ceiling after
> > the '66 top.
> > >
> > > Some seem to think Oct lows marked the halfway point in time and
> > price for this bear
> > > market. Others expect a 4 year extension of the bear market.
> > >
> > > The way I read cycles, the 2002 bottom correlates with the 1942
> > and 1962
> > > bottoms. All three are final lows of the first 20 year components
> > of 40 year
> > > cycles. After 1942 and 1962, the first 4 year component of the
> > succeeding 20
> > > year cycle extended the topping process of their 40 year cycles
> > and produced
> > > new DJIA highs (a right translation of the 40 year cycles). Over
> > the past 80
> > > years, the first 4 year component of every 20 year cycle has
> > trended
> > > strongly up. -See attachment-
> > >
> > > Can someone give me a sound cyclical basis for the expectation
> > that it will
> > > be different this time? Have cycles stopped working? Am I missing
> > something?
> > >
> > > For all the predictions of eminent crashes expressed on this
> > forum across the top, the
> > > DJIA is essentially where it was 4 years ago (down 34% from its
> > high top).The1929
> > > top which was characterized by a parabolic rise followed by a
> > severe drop
> > > which took 90% out of the DJIA by 1932. The move into the 2000
> > DJIA high, which was
> > > decidedly non-parabolic, was followed by a broadening top
> > formation.
> > >
> > > Equivalence to 1929 would require a DJIA drop to 1200 in 2003.
> > > Just my 4 cents --Stan
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> > >
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> >
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>
>
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