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Ira,
You are a kind and generous person (not to mention
wise) -- A true gentleman. Of course, no one
knows the future with any certainty.
Maybe it is possible for some people to develop
reasonable expectations some of the time. I believe, for example, that Richard
Ney had a pretty good idea of probable price direction based on his
personal knowledge of the investment and trading practices of NYSE specialists.
I also believe that J.M. Hurst did an outstanding job of projecting turning
points and price targets based on his understanding of nested
cycles.
Since no specialist has offered to take me under
his wing, I rely on cycles. Across the top of the '98-'02 cycle, I made several
posts suggesting that this was the final 4YR cycle of a 20YR advancing phase.
My expectation was that the '02 low would not be
higher than the '98 low, possibly retracing to the '94 low. A longstanding
pattern repeated one more time.
Now I am guessing that a longstanding
pattern may repeat again. Just a guess, you understand.
--Stan
From: <A title=mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">ira
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, January 28, 2003 9:47
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] DJIA - the next 4
years
Nothing wrong with cycles. It is just that
you don't know if the next low will be above or below the current low.
The cycles can be perfect in ascending, descending or horizontal price
patterns. Four years from now the next low could be at 1000 or at 12,000
and no one that I know of living or dead could say it can't happen or that it
will be any of the points in between. Any guess of where the next 4 year
low will be is just that a guess. There are just to many variables that
can occur which could effect the resulting price action.
Ira
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