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Norman,
Where can we find DJI data going back that far? Mine only goes to
1928.
Thanks.
AS
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxx>
wrote:
> Stan,
>
> The rule of alternation would say that the 2000 Bubble top will
not unravel like the 1929 top. Check out the 1873-74 top and
ensuing period for what is probably a more similar period. 1942 was
the bottom of the 46 year cycle via Saturn -Uranus synodical period.
That probably repeated via the '87 crash low. As for expecting the
market to bounce back after 3-4 years, most generational bubbles
unravel over 10-20 year perods.
>
> Regards,
>
> Norman
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Stan Book
> To: Realtraders
> Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003 11:25 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] DJIA - the next 4 years
>
>
> A number of intelligent folks equate the 2000 top with the 1929
top. It
> took a quarter century for the DJIA to exceed the '29 high, and a
decade and
> a half to convinvingly break out above the 1000 ceiling after
the '66 top.
>
> Some seem to think Oct lows marked the halfway point in time and
price for this bear
> market. Others expect a 4 year extension of the bear market.
>
> The way I read cycles, the 2002 bottom correlates with the 1942
and 1962
> bottoms. All three are final lows of the first 20 year components
of 40 year
> cycles. After 1942 and 1962, the first 4 year component of the
succeeding 20
> year cycle extended the topping process of their 40 year cycles
and produced
> new DJIA highs (a right translation of the 40 year cycles). Over
the past 80
> years, the first 4 year component of every 20 year cycle has
trended
> strongly up. -See attachment-
>
> Can someone give me a sound cyclical basis for the expectation
that it will
> be different this time? Have cycles stopped working? Am I missing
something?
>
> For all the predictions of eminent crashes expressed on this
forum across the top, the
> DJIA is essentially where it was 4 years ago (down 34% from its
high top).The1929
> top which was characterized by a parabolic rise followed by a
severe drop
> which took 90% out of the DJIA by 1932. The move into the 2000
DJIA high, which was
> decidedly non-parabolic, was followed by a broadening top
formation.
>
> Equivalence to 1929 would require a DJIA drop to 1200 in 2003.
> Just my 4 cents --Stan
>
>
>
>
>
>
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