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Nothing wrong with cycles. It is just that
you don't know if the next low will be above or below the current low. The
cycles can be perfect in ascending, descending or horizontal price
patterns. Four years from now the next low could be at 1000 or at 12,000
and no one that I know of living or dead could say it can't happen or that it
will be any of the points in between. Any guess of where the next 4 year
low will be is just that a guess. There are just to many variables that
can occur which could effect the resulting price action. Ira
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Stan Book
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Realtraders
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003 8:25
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] DJIA - the next 4
years
A number of intelligent folks equate the 2000 top
with the 1929 top. Ittook a quarter century for the DJIA to exceed the '29
high, and a decade anda half to convinvingly break out above the 1000
ceiling after the '66 top.
Some seem to think Oct lows marked the halfway point in
time and price for this bear
market. Others expect a 4 year extension
of the bear market.The way I read cycles, the 2002 bottom
correlates with the 1942 and 1962bottoms. All three are final lows of the
first 20 year components of 40 yearcycles. After 1942 and 1962, the first
4 year component of the succeeding 20year cycle extended the topping
process of their 40 year cycles and producednew DJIA highs (a right
translation of the 40 year cycles). Over the past 80years, the first 4
year component of every 20 year cycle has trendedstrongly up. -See
attachment-Can someone give me a sound cyclical basis for the
expectation that it willbe different this time? Have cycles stopped
working? Am I missing something?
For all the predictions of eminent crashes
expressed on this forum across the top, theDJIA is essentially where it
was 4 years ago (down 34% from its high top).The1929top which
was characterized by a parabolic rise followed by a severe dropwhich
took 90% out of the DJIA by 1932. The move into the 2000 DJIA high, which
wasdecidedly non-parabolic, was followed by a broadening top
formation.
Equivalence to 1929 would require a DJIA drop to 1200 in
2003.
Just my 4 cents --Stan
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