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----- Original Message -----
From: <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, January 29, 2003 4:39 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] DJIA - the next 4 years
> Norman,
>
> Where can we find DJI data going back that far? Mine only goes to
> 1928.
>
> Thanks.
> AS
My charts are hard copies. The now defunct Foundation for the Study of
Cycles offered a 200 year stock market chart. Securities Research Company
in the Boston area also used to sell a big 200 year stock market wall chart.
You can get the DJIA from 1895 here
http://averages.dowjones.com/jsp/industrialAverages.jsp
Here is the US stock market 1800 - 1900
http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/USDJIND1800-1900.gif
You can get other related charts at the same website here
http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Historical.htm#COMMODITIES
I recommend reading mucho economic and financial history. I recommend
Charles P. Kindleberger's
Panics, Manias, & Crashes.
Historically,
Norman
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Stan,
> >
> > The rule of alternation would say that the 2000 Bubble top will
> not unravel like the 1929 top. Check out the 1873-74 top and
> ensuing period for what is probably a more similar period. 1942 was
> the bottom of the 46 year cycle via Saturn -Uranus synodical period.
> That probably repeated via the '87 crash low. As for expecting the
> market to bounce back after 3-4 years, most generational bubbles
> unravel over 10-20 year perods.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Norman
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Stan Book
> > To: Realtraders
> > Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003 11:25 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] DJIA - the next 4 years
> >
> >
> > A number of intelligent folks equate the 2000 top with the 1929
> top. It
> > took a quarter century for the DJIA to exceed the '29 high, and a
> decade and
> > a half to convinvingly break out above the 1000 ceiling after
> the '66 top.
> >
> > Some seem to think Oct lows marked the halfway point in time and
> price for this bear
> > market. Others expect a 4 year extension of the bear market.
> >
> > The way I read cycles, the 2002 bottom correlates with the 1942
> and 1962
> > bottoms. All three are final lows of the first 20 year components
> of 40 year
> > cycles. After 1942 and 1962, the first 4 year component of the
> succeeding 20
> > year cycle extended the topping process of their 40 year cycles
> and produced
> > new DJIA highs (a right translation of the 40 year cycles). Over
> the past 80
> > years, the first 4 year component of every 20 year cycle has
> trended
> > strongly up. -See attachment-
> >
> > Can someone give me a sound cyclical basis for the expectation
> that it will
> > be different this time? Have cycles stopped working? Am I missing
> something?
> >
> > For all the predictions of eminent crashes expressed on this
> forum across the top, the
> > DJIA is essentially where it was 4 years ago (down 34% from its
> high top).The1929
> > top which was characterized by a parabolic rise followed by a
> severe drop
> > which took 90% out of the DJIA by 1932. The move into the 2000
> DJIA high, which was
> > decidedly non-parabolic, was followed by a broadening top
> formation.
> >
> > Equivalence to 1929 would require a DJIA drop to 1200 in 2003.
> > Just my 4 cents --Stan
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
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> >
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