|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I'm not sure about telecoms in general but I bought a few K of LU at a buck
last week. The companies they sell to can not go forever without
upgrades/replacements and Lucent appears to have little risk of going
under. Also, at these prices, a takeover might be a prudent move for a
strong firm with a horizon beyond next week.
Bob
At 12:36 PM 9/21/2002 -0400, you wrote:
>I think there are two sides to this point. Isn't a service-based economy
>more flexible than one based on large factories? It may mean that
>changes come more easily, and that new industries can develop using the
>excess information-based labor from weaker sectors.
>
>In this respect, telecoms will be a good real-life example. It will be
>interesting to see what happens to all the people getting laid off by
>the telecoms firms that won't be growing for several years. If they end
>up having no place to go, that would indicate your believe is validated.
>If they find new jobs in a similar field, I think the economic hit will
>not be very big at all.
>
>Regards
>DanG
>
>Earl Adamy wrote:
> >
> > I neglected to make one other important point relevant to the original
> > comparison to Japan. Japan is, in many ways in similar shape to where
> the US
> > was in the late 20's with a large manufacturing base and trade surplus. To
> > my knowledge, no country in the past several hundred years has entered a
> > market/economic decline with an economy based on services! Services tend to
> > be far more discretionary than basic manufacturing and I believe that the
> > potential exists for a much larger economic hit than the US incurred during
> > the Great Depression.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 4:20 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> >
> > > During the Great Depression, unemployment was 25%+- ... the flip side is
> > > that 75%+- were employed. I do think that several critical distinctions
> > are
> > > missed in comparisons:
> > >
> > > 1) When the markets peaked in 1929, the US was a net creditor nation with
> > > very large reserves. When the market peaked in 2000, the US was a net
> > debtor
> > > nation with a huge and growing trade deficit.
> > >
> > > 2) Even more important, when the markets peaked in the 1929, the US had a
> > > large and vibrant manufacturing base which dominated the national
> economy.
> > > When the markets peaked in 2000, the US economy was service based with
> > most
> > > of the manufacturing moved off-shore.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 3:06 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > >
> > >
> > > > What you're saying about Japan is correct. Tokyo is hustlin' and
> > > > bustlin'. But I've read that even during the Great Depression,
> > > > things were relatively OK in the major cities here.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Joe Duffy" <joeduffy@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Additionally many here seem to think Japan has been in this decade
> > > > long
> > > > > depression. The reality as I hear it is life goes on quite well
> > > > there, at
> > > > > least from talking to people who work there --- and that goes for
> > > > the
> > > > > nationals not just the ex-pats in the banking industry I know.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <thegonch@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 12:35 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Your use of the word 'panic' followed in another message by
> > > > extensive
> > > > > > use of caps leads me to believe you have an opinion. If there is
> > > > > > anything I have learned from lurking on this list over the years,
> > > > it is
> > > > > > to not have a strong opinion, because it makes it emotionally
> > > > difficult
> > > > > > to trade.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > You also seem to place a lot of meaning on the shape of the yield
> > > > curve,
> > > > > > and seem to think that the US economy is heading into a situation
> > > > like
> > > > > > Japan. The deep decline in Japan's market can be attributed to a
> > > > real
> > > > > > estate bubble that greatly exaggerated the valuation of 'blue
> > > > chip'
> > > > > > companies in that market. It has taken a decade and more to wash
> > > > that
> > > > > > overvaluation out of that market, and there is still a state of
> > > > denial
> > > > > > in the banking sector there. The US is not in a situation
> > > > anything like
> > > > > > what happened in Japan. While there may still be too much
> > > > optimism in
> > > > > > stocks prices in the US today, I don't see any historical
> > > > similarity
> > > > > > except the overall level of interest rates. The size of the
> > > > bubble in
> > > > > > both real estate and the stock market was much greater than
> > > > anything
> > > > > > present so far in the US economy.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Regards
> > > > > > DanG
> > > > > >
> > > > > > "M. Simms" wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > NO WAY !!! IF SO, HELLO JA-PAN !!! HELLO "DEAD FLAT YIELD
> > > > CURVE".....
> > > > > > > JAPAN ECONOMY DEJA VUE....
> > > > > > > and the experts are saying "IT CAN'T HAPPEN, IT CAN'T
> > > > HAPPEN" !!!
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Does this spell the death of capitalism ?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > > From: profitok [mailto:profitok@x...]
> > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002 10:31 PM
> > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > > > Cc: gannsghost@xxxx
> > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > we STILL have much more to go on the upside,,
> > > > > > > > June 2003 contract to reach 119 by 3 2003
> > > > > > > > Ben
> > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > To: "RealtradersList" <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002 10:09 PM
> > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Is that correct ?
> > > > > > > > > In that case we could start approaching that Japan-like
> > > > yield
> > > > > > > > curve where
> > > > > > > > > everything flattens out between a rate of zero and 2
> > > > percent.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Beware of a Fed INTRADAY rate cut in case of a market
> > > > panic !
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
>Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
4 DVDs Free +s&p Join Now
http://us.click.yahoo.com/pt6YBB/NXiEAA/ySSFAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|