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Hello BobsKC,
believe it or not the takeover premium is already in the price of
Lucent :(
Best regards,
Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
--
Saturday, September 21, 2002, 1:02:02 PM, you wrote:
B> I'm not sure about telecoms in general but I bought a few K of LU at a buck
B> last week. The companies they sell to can not go forever without
B> upgrades/replacements and Lucent appears to have little risk of going
B> under. Also, at these prices, a takeover might be a prudent move for a
B> strong firm with a horizon beyond next week.
B> Bob
B> At 12:36 PM 9/21/2002 -0400, you wrote:
>>I think there are two sides to this point. Isn't a service-based economy
>>more flexible than one based on large factories? It may mean that
>>changes come more easily, and that new industries can develop using the
>>excess information-based labor from weaker sectors.
>>
>>In this respect, telecoms will be a good real-life example. It will be
>>interesting to see what happens to all the people getting laid off by
>>the telecoms firms that won't be growing for several years. If they end
>>up having no place to go, that would indicate your believe is validated.
>>If they find new jobs in a similar field, I think the economic hit will
>>not be very big at all.
>>
>>Regards
>>DanG
>>
>>Earl Adamy wrote:
>> >
>> > I neglected to make one other important point relevant to the original
>> > comparison to Japan. Japan is, in many ways in similar shape to where
>> the US
>> > was in the late 20's with a large manufacturing base and trade surplus. To
>> > my knowledge, no country in the past several hundred years has entered a
>> > market/economic decline with an economy based on services! Services tend to
>> > be far more discretionary than basic manufacturing and I believe that the
>> > potential exists for a much larger economic hit than the US incurred during
>> > the Great Depression.
>> >
>> > Earl
>> >
>> > ----- Original Message -----
>> > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
>> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 4:20 PM
>> > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
>> >
>> > > During the Great Depression, unemployment was 25%+- ... the flip side is
>> > > that 75%+- were employed. I do think that several critical distinctions
>> > are
>> > > missed in comparisons:
>> > >
>> > > 1) When the markets peaked in 1929, the US was a net creditor nation with
>> > > very large reserves. When the market peaked in 2000, the US was a net
>> > debtor
>> > > nation with a huge and growing trade deficit.
>> > >
>> > > 2) Even more important, when the markets peaked in the 1929, the US had a
>> > > large and vibrant manufacturing base which dominated the national
>> economy.
>> > > When the markets peaked in 2000, the US economy was service based with
>> > most
>> > > of the manufacturing moved off-shore.
>> > >
>> > > Earl
>> > >
>> > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 3:06 PM
>> > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > > What you're saying about Japan is correct. Tokyo is hustlin' and
>> > > > bustlin'. But I've read that even during the Great Depression,
>> > > > things were relatively OK in the major cities here.
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Joe Duffy" <joeduffy@xxxx> wrote:
>> > > > > Additionally many here seem to think Japan has been in this decade
>> > > > long
>> > > > > depression. The reality as I hear it is life goes on quite well
>> > > > there, at
>> > > > > least from talking to people who work there --- and that goes for
>> > > > the
>> > > > > nationals not just the ex-pats in the banking industry I know.
>> > > > >
>> > > > >
>> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > > > From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <thegonch@xxxx>
>> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
>> > > > > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 12:35 PM
>> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
>> > > > >
>> > > > >
>> > > > > > Your use of the word 'panic' followed in another message by
>> > > > extensive
>> > > > > > use of caps leads me to believe you have an opinion. If there is
>> > > > > > anything I have learned from lurking on this list over the years,
>> > > > it is
>> > > > > > to not have a strong opinion, because it makes it emotionally
>> > > > difficult
>> > > > > > to trade.
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > You also seem to place a lot of meaning on the shape of the yield
>> > > > curve,
>> > > > > > and seem to think that the US economy is heading into a situation
>> > > > like
>> > > > > > Japan. The deep decline in Japan's market can be attributed to a
>> > > > real
>> > > > > > estate bubble that greatly exaggerated the valuation of 'blue
>> > > > chip'
>> > > > > > companies in that market. It has taken a decade and more to wash
>> > > > that
>> > > > > > overvaluation out of that market, and there is still a state of
>> > > > denial
>> > > > > > in the banking sector there. The US is not in a situation
>> > > > anything like
>> > > > > > what happened in Japan. While there may still be too much
>> > > > optimism in
>> > > > > > stocks prices in the US today, I don't see any historical
>> > > > similarity
>> > > > > > except the overall level of interest rates. The size of the
>> > > > bubble in
>> > > > > > both real estate and the stock market was much greater than
>> > > > anything
>> > > > > > present so far in the US economy.
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > Regards
>> > > > > > DanG
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > "M. Simms" wrote:
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > NO WAY !!! IF SO, HELLO JA-PAN !!! HELLO "DEAD FLAT YIELD
>> > > > CURVE".....
>> > > > > > > JAPAN ECONOMY DEJA VUE....
>> > > > > > > and the experts are saying "IT CAN'T HAPPEN, IT CAN'T
>> > > > HAPPEN" !!!
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > Does this spell the death of capitalism ?
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
>> > > > > > > > From: profitok [mailto:profitok@x...]
>> > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002 10:31 PM
>> > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
>> > > > > > > > Cc: gannsghost@xxxx
>> > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
>> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > we STILL have much more to go on the upside,,
>> > > > > > > > June 2003 contract to reach 119 by 3 2003
>> > > > > > > > Ben
>> > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
>> > > > > > > > To: "RealtradersList" <realtraders@xxxx>
>> > > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002 10:09 PM
>> > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
>> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > Is that correct ?
>> > > > > > > > > In that case we could start approaching that Japan-like
>> > > > yield
>> > > > > > > > curve where
>> > > > > > > > > everything flattens out between a rate of zero and 2
>> > > > percent.
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > > Beware of a Fed INTRADAY rate cut in case of a market
>> > > > panic !
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > > >
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